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Right Folks.

I told you prices would shoot up...Stamp Duty Cut, Lower IRs, Term Funding etc, it was only going to go one way this summer.

However, I've crunched some numbers, I've look at what's happening with Property Lion, I've seen the NW/Halifax/ONS numbers, I am speaking to people on full blown panic mode now.  

The market has stalled.  The prices are just so high the whole market is unstable. London has fallen.

Summer 2020 is the peak of the house price mania.  

It's over, house prices are going to crash.

Caveat Emptor.

P.S. Fingers crossed.

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Well we have had a whole lot of money spent that is borrowed from the future...so I guess we were always going to have to wait longer for our time to come. I can see that it will carry on for a bit longer.

I am now convinced that the currency is to be sacrificed in the long term and I hope the talk of this reset is true because that is my favoured scenario by far.

The real pain will start in the new year now IMPO with a short to medium term of deflation. I dont intend to be a big tax payer in the new FY from April!

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Always got time for you, Count.  Especially your views on housing rather than the other stuff! Plus you back your views with actual data rather than mere opinion. 

 

Thanks HH123.  I'd ignore the other stuff, I'm a professional wind up merchant.

Job losses, wage drops, Properly crazy prices, brexit, it's the perfect storm.  They've thrown everything at it and made matters worse, it's going to go down now, I am sure of it.

I've witnessed a part time teacher who lives in an ex-council flat bid £600K for a house that is worth IMHO £200K, tops.  If that doesn't scream sub prime debt bubble nothing will.

To be far to the previous "I told you so" OP, he was right, just misread how totally insane British people are with their money and how easily manipulated they are.  I think he was 6 months early but totally correct.

The great depression started in 2007 and it will run for another decade. 

They establishment wont call it that while we are in it, but we are definitely in it.

 

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Well we have had a whole lot of money spent that is borrowed from the future...so I guess we were always going to have to wait longer for our time to come. I can see that it will carry on for a bit longer.

I am now convinced that the currency is to be sacrificed in the long term and I hope the talk of this reset is true because that is my favoured scenario by far.

The real pain will start in the new year now IMPO with a short to medium term of deflation. I dont intend to be a big tax payer in the new FY from April!

Debt is just spending brought forward, it leaves a hole into which the debtors eventually fall.

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Debt is just spending brought forward, it leaves a hole into which the debtors eventually fall.

Debt is a claim on future work - great if you can use Debt to generate more work in the future (aka Investment Debt). If not, then you've pulled consumption forward or you write off and cause the currency you created to fail.

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Thanks HH123.  I'd ignore the other stuff, I'm a professional wind up merchant.

Job losses, wage drops, Properly crazy prices, brexit, it's the perfect storm.  They've thrown everything at it and made matters worse, it's going to go down now, I am sure of it.

I've witnessed a part time teacher who lives in an ex-council flat bid £600K for a house that is worth IMHO £200K, tops.  If that doesn't scream sub prime debt bubble nothing will.

To be far to the previous "I told you so" OP, he was right, just misread how totally insane British people are with their money and how easily manipulated they are.  I think he was 6 months early but totally correct.

The great depression started in 2007 and it will run for another decade. 

They establishment wont call it that while we are in it, but we are definitely in it.

 

I felt exactly the same through the mid 2000s and to 2010. Even when they stated to bounce bank i was with you and the others saying it's all a dead cat bounce etc etc. 

Having seen what the government had done previously I'm once bitten twice shy. If we get deflation (possible for sure and likely with an EU trade deal) you can bet on NIRP. Mortgage rates area another beast entirely but in countries where they've had this the impact has been lower mortgage rates. Denmark did even have a mortgage that credited the debt by 0.5% i believe. 

The rises this year are crazy but tbh given what's happened historically it's hard to see the risk. 

Caveat emptor indeed but there's no moral hazard.

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Right Folks.

I told you prices would shoot up...Stamp Duty Cut, Lower IRs, Term Funding etc, it was only going to go one way this summer.

However, I've crunched some numbers, I've look at what's happening with Property Lion, I've seen the NW/Halifax/ONS numbers, I am speaking to people on full blown panic mode now.  

The market has stalled.  The prices are just so high the whole market is unstable. London has fallen.

Summer 2020 is the peak of the house price mania.  

It's over, house prices are going to crash.

Caveat Emptor.

P.S. Fingers crossed.

anyone who bought after the HTB pump after 2016 is going to be paying a heavy price.  new build is toast. 

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anyone who bought after the HTB pump after 2016 is going to be paying a heavy price.  new build is toast. 

Yep and as for Mr wind up The count :) Think he is spot on - Th announcement of the lockdown tonight at 5 will be the start of freefall

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Yep and as for Mr wind up The count :) Think he is spot on - Th announcement of the lockdown tonight at 5 will be the start of freefall

Our headless chickens at the helm don`t have a fecking clue what to do.  what they should be doing is securing our currency not overpriced houses anymore and improve the employment opportunities for when the mess is burnt out. 

time to face facts 

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Our headless chickens at the helm don`t have a fecking clue what to do.  what they should be doing is securing our currency not overpriced houses anymore and improve the employment opportunities for when the mess is burnt out. 

time to face facts 

Well put

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Our headless chickens at the helm don`t have a fecking clue what to do.  what they should be doing is securing our currency not overpriced houses anymore and improve the employment opportunities for when the mess is burnt out. 

time to face facts 

From notayesmaneconomicsblog:

"

The annual rate of the Housing Price Index (HPI) decreased one percentage point in the
second quarter of 2020, standing at 2.1%.
By housing type, the rate of new housing reached 4.2%, almost two points below that
registered in the previous quarter

 

REPORT THIS AD

So we still have growth and the central bankers will be happy with an index that is at 126.8 when compared with 2015. Their researchers will be busy enhancing their career prospects by finding Wealth Effects from this whilst nobody asks why all the emails from first-time buyers saying they cannot afford anything keep ending up in the spam folder."

 

The BoE are in for a rude awakening when someone tells them that the economy is not the same as house prices

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Right Folks.

I told you prices would shoot up...Stamp Duty Cut, Lower IRs, Term Funding etc, it was only going to go one way this summer.

However, I've crunched some numbers, I've look at what's happening with Property Lion, I've seen the NW/Halifax/ONS numbers, I am speaking to people on full blown panic mode now.  

The market has stalled.  The prices are just so high the whole market is unstable. London has fallen.

Summer 2020 is the peak of the house price mania.  

It's over, house prices are going to crash.

Caveat Emptor.

P.S. Fingers crossed.

So this time, it's different.

:)

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"So, how do you strengthen the economy and make it resilient in the face of a 100 year pandemic that threatens to push us into a deep recession and maybe depression?"

"I know, prop up house prices"

"Brilliant, what could go wrong"

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A 70% fall in property prices might look quite conservative come 2022.

We are fubar'd now alright.  Best not to spend any money at the moment and kill the economy stone dead quickly imo.

Then we can rebuild.

Keep thine power dry

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Job losses, wage drops, Properly crazy prices, brexit, it's the perfect storm.  They've thrown everything at it and made matters worse, it's going to go down now, I am sure of it.

 

Not yet. Helicopter money etc.

Even without that, I can see prices rising for a whole year before it pops. I hope I am wrong. 

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A 70% fall in property prices might look quite conservative come 2022.

We are fubar'd now alright.  Best not to spend any money at the moment and kill the economy stone dead quickly imo.

Then we can rebuild.

It's either spend your money now or have it revalued at 10% or less in the not too distant future.

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I am going to go against the grain here as I believe property prices will only fall 10 to 15%, maybe 20% in some cases. If you are talking about a crash of ~50%+ then there will need to be a significant hit to the economy similar to the Greek crises and involve large emigration.

Having said that the UK and other western economies are going to find it hard to sustain these level of lockdowns and the impact of unemployment. 

It wouldn't surprise me if there is some level of civil unrest soon - likely starting in London similar to 2011.

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I am going to go against the grain here as I believe property prices will only fall 10 to 15%, maybe 20% in some cases. If you are talking about a crash of ~50%+ then there will need to be a significant hit to the economy similar to the Greek crises and involve large emigration.

 

I think that's a fair prediction - in the middle ground between "low interest rates will save the property market" and "unemployment will crash it"

A lot of froth has to come off first though...

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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