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Next up will be calculating the average cost, multiplying it by the number of moves and trying to present it as the loss to the taxpayer.

Obviously it assumes that every single move in progress will break down due to the stamp duty change.

 

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Time for the government to acknowledge housing props for the well off are not a measured or appropriate response to tackling Covid.

Money is required everywhere else, remove SD Holiday, end HTB - use that money to support people impacted by Covid either through job support/back to work initiatives or via additional health spending.

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Cant Mr Sunak just announce that he has abolished Stamp Duty forever ? Maybe set a limit of a million quid and any house under that pays no stamp duty. I bet they can easily find the cash from other sources easily just like how they have found extra cash for PPE contracts, furlough forever and bounce back loans.

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Lets be honest, the cut is permanent, they are not going to be able to justify bringing it back under any circumstances, even if the economy were to magically recover tomorow. This was obvious from the start, but getting rid of Stamp Duty is the first step towards a much more progressive form of Land Value Tax, the government will need the revenue soon enough.

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Next up will be calculating the average cost, multiplying it by the number of moves and trying to present it as the loss to the taxpayer.

Obviously it assumes that every single move in progress will break down due to the stamp duty change.

Yes - quite extraordinary all that will happen in most cases is buyer and vendor will split he cost.

Nothing to see here - move on. 


I would be happy to bet anyone £1,000 that property prices have not fallen 30% by this time next year.  

 

Lets be honest, the cut is permanent, they are not going to be able to justify bringing it back under any circumstances, even if the economy were to magically recover tomorow. This was obvious from the start, but getting rid of Stamp Duty is the first step towards a much more progressive form of Land Value Tax, the government will need the revenue soon enough.

Cannot see that.  I think stamp duty will come back at reduced rates and then be increased to pre-covid levels over a period of time.  

 

 

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I can't see them getting rid of stamp duty entirely. A short extension is possible ostensibly in response to the extra time taken to complete during this manic period, but i suspect we're talking 3 or 6 months tops. 

More interesting for me is if they'll reinstate the FTB stamp duty holiday up to £300K. It was replaced by this temporary holiday but will it come back? To not do so would send an interesting message. 

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TBH I think some kind of incentives for FTBs will always be around. The typical value of those kind of properties are small. People are so sensitive to housing nowadays that this leaving it out would be an political open goal for the opposition.

The rest, not so sure. I think it's inconceivable that the attempt will be to tax people much harder to raise more cash - stamp duty is just a part of it.

What would be interesting is shifting some of the tax burden onto the seller as well as the buyer. I would guess that a very significant proportion of public wealth sits in untaxed property gains, so the government should try and find a way to get their slice of it.

 

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What would be interesting is shifting some of the tax burden onto the seller as well as the buyer. I would guess that a very significant proportion of public wealth sits in untaxed property gains, so the government should try and find a way to get their slice of it.

 

+1  Be prepared for an avalanche of comments from the 'I can just wack up the price, innit' brigade and the 'how dare you fund fecund single mothers with my money' squad

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What would be interesting is shifting some of the tax burden onto the seller as well as the buyer. I would guess that a very significant proportion of public wealth sits in untaxed property gains, so the government should try and find a way to get their slice of it.

Congratulations, you've just added another reason for people to not move houses. 

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TBH I think some kind of incentives for FTBs will always be around.

Yes, but this particular government hasn't introduced anything that incentives FTBers solely. The HTB ISA was withdrawn as planned and i've not heard anyone in government raving about the Lifetime ISA. 

I'm curious to know what they'll introduce to give the market a boost when the stamp duty holiday ends. Maybe they will go down the pensions access route, perhaps another savings vehicle given the LISA is not mainstream, or some other prop no ones considered yet. 

I know they'll do something but i'm hoping there's a short window between stamp duty ending and new prop starting. In hindsight, the period (around 2012) after the last stamp duty holiday ended and Help to Buy starting was the optimal time to buy. 

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I can't see them getting rid of stamp duty entirely. A short extension is possible ostensibly in response to the extra time taken to complete during this manic period, but i suspect we're talking 3 or 6 months tops. 

More interesting for me is if they'll reinstate the FTB stamp duty holiday up to £300K. It was replaced by this temporary holiday but will it come back? To not do so would send an interesting message. 

One of the reasons for high house prices is so the ****s living off our taxes can pretty much collect on double the amount of tax someone pays over a lifetime by charging them to move house

That's not going to stop.

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Yes, but this particular government hasn't introduced anything that incentives FTBers solely. The HTB ISA was withdrawn as planned and i've not heard anyone in government raving about the Lifetime ISA. 

I'm curious to know what they'll introduce to give the market a boost when the stamp duty holiday ends. Maybe they will go down the pensions access route, perhaps another savings vehicle given the LISA is not mainstream, or some other prop no ones considered yet. 

I know they'll do something but i'm hoping there's a short window between stamp duty ending and new prop starting. In hindsight, the period (around 2012) after the last stamp duty holiday ended and Help to Buy starting was the optimal time to buy. 

You can incentivise all you like but if no one buys or can afford to buy, only one thing can happen.

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Something else that's not spoken about much is the Stamp Duty Reform of banding that occurred around 2014. I remember the arguments (mainly by EAs) that too many houses were 'bunching' under the £250K 3% rate. Anyone that had a property listed for £260K would expect to get an offer knocked down to £250K. 

This system was seen as wrong but it had a natural limiting factor on prices that doesn't exist now. That same £250K house is now likely at least £300K, and the seller could add another £10K to the asking price if they fancied it without crossing any significant barriers. 

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Yes, but this particular government hasn't introduced anything that incentives FTBers solely. The HTB ISA was withdrawn as planned and i've not heard anyone in government raving about the Lifetime ISA. 

I'm curious to know what they'll introduce to give the market a boost when the stamp duty holiday ends. Maybe they will go down the pensions access route, perhaps another savings vehicle given the LISA is not mainstream, or some other prop no ones considered yet. 

I know they'll do something but i'm hoping there's a short window between stamp duty ending and new prop starting. In hindsight, the period (around 2012) after the last stamp duty holiday ended and Help to Buy starting was the optimal time to buy. 

You could be right actually.... after the news about Corbyn they can probably do what they want, Labour isn't really much of a danger.

Bojo did make some noises about 95% mortgages so I guess this may be the direction of travel.... some kind of long-term subsidised equity tranche to reduce the purported LTV for the bank, but they still get to charge the customer as if it was 95%.

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Maybe this is why we have had all the news about a mini boom?

 

I have to say that I have found that a bit hard to believe when posting in the "multiple drops" thread. There are lots of decent properties that are being reduced, so perhaps the public are being softened up for the end of the SD holiday?

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I can believe the mini boom. A lot of good houses get sold quickly, and don't get reduced, neither do they stay on Rightmove for long. 

The stuff that we see sticking around, getting reduced multiple times etc doesn't contribute to any of the headlines because they aren't transactions just yet, just advertisements.

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Maybe this is why we have had all the news about a mini boom?

 

I have to say that I have found that a bit hard to believe when posting in the "multiple drops" thread. There are lots of decent properties that are being reduced, so perhaps the public are being softened up for the end of the SD holiday?

By all accounts, if you've not sold you house now then you wont be having a buyer who gets the 3% discount by the end of march.

Another almighty f**k up my ex GS Banker, son in law to a foreign billionaire Risky Bawsac

We all know why that **** was put in that position of power.

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You could be right actually.... after the news about Corbyn they can probably do what they want, Labour isn't really much of a danger.

Bojo did make some noises about 95% mortgages so I guess this may be the direction of travel.... some kind of long-term subsidised equity tranche to reduce the purported LTV for the bank, but they still get to charge the customer as if it was 95%.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some government owned and managed mortgage offering soon.

There's so much intervention already it would seem to be the direction of travel. 

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By all accounts, if you've not sold you house now then you wont be having a buyer who gets the 3% discount by the end of march.

Another almighty f**k up my ex GS Banker, son in law to a foreign billionaire Risky Bawsac

We all know why that **** was put in that position of power.

 I expect it will either be extended or amended in some way. 

I  the south east it's crazy that you have to pay 10k to 15k for the privilege of a sideways move. 

Tax land or bump up council tax etc etc but taxes such as this create huge inefficiencies in the market and distribution of labour over time. 

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Lets be honest, the cut is permanent, they are not going to be able to justify bringing it back under any circumstances, even if the economy were to magically recover tomorow. This was obvious from the start, but getting rid of Stamp Duty is the first step towards a much more progressive form of Land Value Tax, the government will need the revenue soon enough.

Fast forward to mid-2021 : COVID19 vaccines are rolling out on mass, no part of the country is under lockdown...however the government has a giant, giant hole in its finances due to all the support and the recession.

You seriously think they "are not going to be able to justify" raising Stamp Duty back to the level it was pre-COVID?  It feels more likely they'd double it than remove it!

I'd love to see it go completely because it's a rubbish tax, but i can't see them implementing a Land Value Tax whilst they are pre-occupied on Brexit and COVID.  Far easier to bring back Stamp Duty.

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Fast forward to mid-2021 : COVID19 vaccines are rolling out on mass, no part of the country is under lockdown...however the government has a giant, giant hole in its finances due to all the support and the recession.

You seriously think they "are not going to be able to justify" raising Stamp Duty back to the level it was pre-COVID?  It feels more likely they'd double it than remove it!

I'd love to see it go completely because it's a rubbish tax, but i can't see them implementing a Land Value Tax whilst they are pre-occupied on Brexit and COVID.  Far easier to bring back Stamp Duty.

Hear hear

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I'd like to see it come back for sure.

But I don't think it's that much of a meaningful amount, now that we are printing cash to replace lost revenues.

Stamp duty raises something like £10bn a year at current prices. That's a very small amount compared to other taxes.

The government could abolish stamp duty altogether to much fanfare and make miniscule increases to things like VAT and fuel and still be better off.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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