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Will it be a landslide?

Will counting drag on for weeks?

Will the stock market crash in the middle of the mess?

Will there be widespread rioting and burning?

And when the dust has settled, will anything much change?

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Trump    he has big data behind him and help from high places.  

 Big problems need big solutions, the unecided may be more swayed by his WWF style campaigning, 'Sleepy Joe' is a bit too laid back here and he has some bagagge too.

BUILD THAT WALL  🤣

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Trump will win irrespective of the outcome of the election. Can you really see Trump accepting that he's a loser?

He will lose the popular vote by a far greater margin than even 2016. The presidential vote however might be much closer than polls suggest. He could even win it. Wouldn't surprise me if it all hinged on one or two states.

Edited by Mignal
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Unlike the UK, some states allow mail-in ballots to be counted after election day. As long as the envelope is post-marked on or before election day, the vote can be counted, even if it arrives a few days after election day. Some of these states are major swing states that both candidates realistically need to win (Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina).

A disaster will be if Trump wins a swing state narrowly on election day, but a trickle of mail-in ballots swing it for Biden over the next few days.

My prediction - Biden to narrowly win the electoral college on the night. Trump to win Florida, but Biden to narrowly win back most of the rust belt states that flipped in 2016. None of the Democrat long shots (Texas, Arizona) to come off.

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Unlike the UK, some states allow mail-in ballots to be counted after election day. As long as the envelope is post-marked on or before election day, the vote can be counted, even if it arrives a few days after election day. Some of these states are major swing states that both candidates realistically need to win (Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina).

A disaster will be if Trump wins a swing state narrowly on election day, but a trickle of mail-in ballots swing it for Biden over the next few days.

My prediction - Biden to narrowly win the electoral college on the night. Trump to win Florida, but Biden to narrowly win back most of the rust belt states that flipped in 2016. None of the Democrat long shots (Texas, Arizona) to come off.

 

I think your prediction is pretty good, aligns with my view. It wouldn't surprise if Biden is already reasonably ahead on mail in votes, but I suspect more Trump fans will come out on the day making it closer.

Yes Florida is one to watch. Biden doesn't technically need to win it, but if Trump loses that, then it is game over for him.

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I think your prediction is pretty good, aligns with my view. It wouldn't surprise if Biden is already reasonably ahead on mail in votes, but I suspect more Trump fans will come out on the day making it closer.

Yes Florida is one to watch. Biden doesn't technically need to win it, but if Trump loses that, then it is game over for him.

The key to winning the US presidential election is a high turnout of your traditional voters, rather than trying to convince the other parties voters/swing voters to vote for you. In the same way, your opponent failing in getting their traditional supporters out is a huge benefit for you. In some of the states that switched in 2016, Trump got approximately the same votes as Romney in 2012, but the Democrat vote collapsed in the meantime. In that respect, Biden has a lot going in his favor for this election.

  • Whilst he doesn't have the charisma of Obama, he is nowhere near as off-putting as Hilary Clinton was.
  • Four years of Donald Trump has encouraged traditional Democrats who may not have voted in 2016 to return.
  • The novelty of Trump has worn off.

 

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Trump will win irrespective of the outcome of the election. Can you really see Trump accepting that he's a loser?

He will lose the popular vote by a far greater margin than even 2016. The presidential vote however might be much closer than polls suggest. He could even win it. Wouldn't surprise me if it all hinged on one or two states.

Trump is perfectly prepared to burn the country to the ground to hold onto power. This could quite easily end in bloodshed, not that he would care.

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Biden. But we won't find out till a week after the election with all the mail ins. 

 

So Trump will use that week to undermine democracy 

I do find these comments amusing bearing in mind back in 2016 it was the Democratic candidate that didn’t concede in person on the night - which was poor form - and the Democrats that then spent the next six weeks until the electoral college met seeking endless recounts in the key blue wall states and tried to persuade members of said electoral college to change their votes - often by very aggressive personal campaigns - and go against the result the voters had delivered in their state. 

And then post inauguration we had nearly two years of ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ until they gave up.

It’s looking like Biden will win -  but let’s not pretend the Democrats have a track record of meekly accepting the election results! 

We of course had much the same in the UK post 23 June 2016.

We will get a winner - perhaps on the night perhaps later - and the US constitution requires that winner takes office on 20 January at 12 noon. 

Edited by MARTINX9
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I made some money with Trump last time. I'm betting on Trump again, but smaller stake and expecting to lose it.

I want Trump to win to expose the sham of the US electoral system and the wider damage within US democracy. Their levels of gerrymandering are insane. Another Trump win could put in a JFK style candidate to enact some real improvement to the US system.  The wailing of Trump being the 'next Hitler' was overstated. He is a moron, but that is what the US and the US stage needs now.

The UK can learn to avoid sheer partisanship and the need for party 'ideological purity' whether is it from Farage / UKIP for the Tories or from Momentum for Labour.  We can also learn to keep church and state well apart - the only overlap I tolerate is the Queen being head of both as she stays impartial.

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Trump will win irrespective of the outcome of the election. Can you really see Trump accepting that he's a loser?

He will lose the popular vote by a far greater margin than even 2016. The presidential vote however might be much closer than polls suggest. He could even win it. Wouldn't surprise me if it all hinged on one or two states.

+1

Trump could lose, but Trump will win. He’s been quite open about not accepting results, and sowing lies about voter fraud. 

 

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Everything that comes out of that hole in his face is a lie

Indeed.

Look at this point I just want to NOT HEAR about him or his wretched hellhole country for a few days in a row. I can remember going WEEKS without hearing about Obama, what Obama was saying or tweeting, or wondering if Michelle was real or a doppelgänger. Blissful, USA-free weeks.

Every time he derails another topic I hope for his downfall. I’m bored of his narcissistic claptrap and sick of his flappity amber scroteface hooting its lips at me from every direction. I hope he falls into a vat of industrial cheesecake mix.

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I do find these comments amusing bearing in mind back in 2016 it was the Democratic candidate that didn’t concede in person on the night - which was poor form - and the Democrats that then spent the next six weeks until the electoral college met seeking endless recounts in the key blue wall states and tried to persuade members of said electoral college to change their votes - often by very aggressive personal campaigns - and go against the result the voters had delivered in their state. 

And then post inauguration we had nearly two years of ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ until they gave up.

It’s looking like Biden will win -  but let’s not pretend the Democrats have a track record of meekly accepting the election results! 

We of course had much the same in the UK post 23 June 2016.

We will get a winner - perhaps on the night perhaps later - and the US constitution requires that winner takes office on 20 January at 12 noon. 

You mean she conceded the morning after. 

 

“Donald Trump is going to be our president,” she said, speaking at the New Yorker hotel in Manhattan. “We owe him an open mind and a chance to lead.”

 

Do you actually trump will do the same? 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/hillary-clinton-concedes-election-donald-trump-speech

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You mean she conceded the morning after. 

 

“Donald Trump is going to be our president,” she said, speaking at the New Yorker hotel in Manhattan. “We owe him an open mind and a chance to lead.”

 

Do you actually trump will do the same? 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/hillary-clinton-concedes-election-donald-trump-speech

Clinton sent John Podesta out on the night to speak to the crowds at the Javits centre to send thousands of her supporters who were upset and many were in tears home. And within about 20 mins rang Trump and conceded the race. 

She didn't have the guts or the class to address her own supporters who had turned up for her election night party to officially concede in the usual manner. She did do a news conference I agree - the next day many hours after.

And you wonder why she couldn't beat Trump. Of course she didn't just keep quiet in the usual way a defeated candidate usually does - no it was everyone's fault except hers. Putin apparently had more to do with her loss than she did - he presumably decided her entire itinerary too including her failure to ever visit Wisconsin.

Hilary Clinton is why we have President Trump.

Edited by MARTINX9
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Clinton sent John Podesta out on the night to speak to the crowds at the Javits centre to send thousands of her supporters who were upset and many were in tears home. And within about 20 mins rang Trump and conceded the race. 

She didn't have the guts or the class to address her own supporters who had turned up for her election night party to officially concede in the usual manner. She did do a news conference I agree - the next day many hours after.

And you wonder why she couldn't beat Trump. Of course she didn't just keep quiet in the usual way a defeated candidate usually does - no it was everyone's fault except hers.

Clinton was a crap candidate I agree. 

She conceded next day and said give trump a chance to lead. 

Despite her being a poor candidate watch trump do nothing of the sort even in the unlikely event of a landslide against him

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Does this look like a loser to you ? 

He is holding massive rallies every day in the key states.

Biden is no where to be seen. He is absent on the campaign trail and running a strange campaign while more scandal comes out about his son.

 

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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