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Interest rates will never go up...


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
 

You don't get hyperinflation when all countries are printing money at the same rate

And if you do get hyperinflation holding a load of cash and no house, it's curtains for you anyway.

IMO, rates will rocket at some point and bankrupt just about everyone who's in debt.

You are right though, owning a house that is paid for without a mortgage would be better than holding worthless cash.

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HOLA443
 

IMO, rates will rocket at some point and bankrupt just about everyone who's in debt.

That's (probably, almost) a tautology.  If the prediction allows one to wait long enough, you can pretty-much guarantee any prediction will transpire.

I think you need to put a timescale on the prediction if it is to inform.

By "at some point" - do you think of that in terms of weeks, months, years, decades, centuries or millenia?

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HOLA444
 

That's (probably, almost) a tautology.  If the prediction allows one to wait long enough, you can pretty-much guarantee any prediction will transpire.

I think you need to put a timescale on the prediction if it is to inform.

By "at some point" - do you think of that in terms of weeks, months, years, decades, centuries or millenia?

You've got a point. The trouble with bubbles is their ultimate duration can be much longer than you were expecting....

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HOLA445
 

In a sane working world not buying 3 years ago should not make a difference is the bigger picture here. That system is not sustainable. 

so a 22yo is far worse off buying than a 25yo ?

 

 

Of course it makes a difference. Three years of rental not paid to a land lord and paid off your debt. Three years of not watching prices go further. 

People on here tell themselves versions of your statement. Wait and see. Wait and see. Wait and see. 

Buy a house at 22 and if you never wasn't for more you've cleared your mortgage three years before the 25 year old. I think that makes a huge difference to most people. 

I was an FTB in 2017. I bought something then that is now about 60k more to buy today. Three years of not paying down my mortgage (30k cleared so far) and I'd be stumping up 60k more for the place. Sure, i might have saved up some money in the meantime but not as much as I've saved and cleared of the mortgage combined and my former rent is roughly the same as my mortgage. 

If 90k makes no difference to you then fair play my friend, you're doing much better than me. 

Final point on this, doesn't make so much difference for a 22 year old but most mortgage companies will allow you a term up to your 70th birthday so their comes a time where three years would impact how much you could borrow. 

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HOLA446
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HOLA447
 

Once we get hyperinflation, IR's will be 20%+.

It's coming soon, as Boris and co can't stop printing to pay peoples wages.

Yeah, of course it is. 

It isn't. And hyperinflation wouldn't be solved by 20% IR.

But even if it is, anyone on a fixed rate would be laughing since the value of their debt would be very little very quickly. 

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HOLA448
 

You sound very sure. I am not sure if anything other than waiting what is literally 10/15 weeks  

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

Your advice is best rush in just before Christmas, not point waiting ten weeks....last thing anyone wants is to be looking at houses in wet and cold January/February.

I have relied on that mentality for 30 years and always found the best buys about then and agree a sale March before the weather changes. And this year that never been more relevant...never buy when people are queuing up to buy...never. 

Even in a rising market I have bought things easily 20% less than others by waiting a few months until the excitement dies down. 

The ‘excitement premium’ is clear for anyone to see....EAs are genuinely saying ‘really, asking price, are you sure?’ Which is why valuers are down valuing.

Wait for the dust to settle over Christmas and review. 

 Pretty solid advice, never buy into a frenzy. Imho The best time to buy recently was 2016 a few months after Brexit vote. Even a year later i got a decent amount (12%) off The asking price. Combination of very motivated sellers moving into care (So not as keen on maxing out the offer as someone desperate for every last pound moving up) and no chain behind. 

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HOLA449
 

IMO, rates will rocket at some point and bankrupt just about everyone who's in debt.

You are right though, owning a house that is paid for without a mortgage would be better than holding worthless cash.

Even better is having a having a huuuuuge mortgage on a fixed rate when hyperinflation comes along. Basically gives you the house for free.

Even at 20% (not hyperinflation by any stretch) the debt would half in value in about 3.5 years which would more than half the repayment term.

As others say..... be careful what you wish for. 

Genuinely, if this happened i would look to buy something even more expensive since my salary would have doubled nominally. Very much doubt I'd be the only one either. 

As the (in)famous phrase goes 'be careful what you wish for'.

If i was a first time buyer and hyperinflation struck I'd be fricking depressed. 

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HOLA4410
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HOLA4411
 

This is genuinely sad. It’s awful that you feel this way.

Unfortunately, you need to wake up to the reality that prices are unlikely to crash. There will be a global currency devaluation coming along with rampant asset inflation. The beneficiaries will be those with big mortgages. You’ll be on the sidelines shouting abuse still. You should just buy somewhere whilst you still can.

 

We've had that for a decade now. 

And still savings accounts out performed housing. 

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HOLA4412
 

When I first found this forum I bought into it all. It all seemed logical, or course prices are too high and of course they’re gonna crash. Until the penny finally drops when you realise that any proper asset measured in sterling will be rising. >£700bn of QE helps.

Anyway, you guys do what you like. I’d be salty as ******, too, if I’d been on this forum for 13 years with 31,000 posts, watching all the ‘feckless’ normies getting on with their lives whilst enjoying asset appreciation.

You sound scared. 

Good. 

You should be. 

 

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HOLA4413
 

I understand you're argument, "people should wait and watch", its a sensible perspective.

However, I would by inclined to buy now if I was a FTB.

As interest rates fall, house prices will increase.

As the money supply increases their deposit will be eroded and house prices will inflate.

(This has happened already, 10% in my area alone and will continue, to around 20% by the end of next year. Historical data from previous pandemics support this).

London may have some falls, but its at the pinnacle of the market. That market is governed by a reduced supply vs 500k where the potential buyers increase and do so as we go lower.

Poor business models are failing and will be replaced quickly with new jobs in different sectors, we won't grind to a halt. This was occurring pre-covid19.

The government will put in new measures, to prop up the economy and support jobs.

Had you bought during each crash dotcom & subprime mortgages, you would be much better of now.

Renting, is also very unstable and your money is lost.

If my son, was 25 now, I would help him buy now before the negative interest rates, props, QE push prices up further.

 

Give it up. 

The Uk is ####ed, the currency is ####ed, house prices are ####ed. 

Mortgage rates are rising, this means house prices will fall. We approach an event horizon with irs, if they go over 3% say, for FTBs and the remortgage gang then house proces collapse...throw in mass unemployed and Brexit and that threshold will be even lower. 

Get yourself back over to mumsnet and give us all a break from your ****** 

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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415
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HOLA4416
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HOLA4417
 

This thread has really hit a raw nerve with a certain bunch of posters. 

You can call me what you like but at the end of the day you might have a mortgage on a house I have my self respect. 

I’m relatively new to this place, so what’s your story? Why are you so angry all the time... 😬

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HOLA4418
 

I’m relatively new to this place, so what’s your story? Why are you so angry all the time... 😬

Because he makes the same assertions repeatedly and gets them wrong. Must be like falling off a ferry and watching everyone else sail off without a care in the world while you're left floundering and far behind. 

Just seen Natwest doing a 5 year fixed for 1.49%. That's amazing!!

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HOLA4419
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HOLA4420
 

You've got a point. The trouble with bubbles is their ultimate duration can be much longer than you were expecting....

Newton, 3rd cleverest man in history bought back into the south sea bubble and lost a fortune, Einstein 2nd clevetest man in history lost his nobel prize money in the 20s stock market crash. 

 

https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/why-einstein-lost-money-in-stocks-2/#:~:text=Few know that Albert Einstein,stock market crash in 1929.&text=What was lost on Einstein,only when others are fearful.

 

 

People are blinded by easy money

 

Ultimately, for everyone bar the lucky and the fraudsters there is no such thing 

 

 

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HOLA4421
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HOLA4422
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HOLA4423
 

Newton, 3rd cleverest man in history bought back into the south sea bubble and lost a fortune, Einstein 2nd clevetest man in history lost his nobel prize money in the 20s stock market crash. 

https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/why-einstein-lost-money-in-stocks-2/#:~:text=Few know that Albert Einstein,stock market crash in 1929.&text=What was lost on Einstein,only when others are fearful.

People are blinded by easy money

Ultimately, for everyone bar the lucky and the fraudsters there is no such thing 

 

 

I like to think I am fairly bright....modestly certainly in the Top 10 in history😆😆

Joking apart....I think the issue is we can all over think things and everything can point in one direction eg low rates, government props and then suddenly the one thing none of us can put our finger on, the non tangible suddenly changes....sentiment.

Flats are not selling in our town but houses are booming. I actually think the reality of garden space etc etc is a factor but it’s more that we are being told it’s and issue that has made it become a real tangible differentiator in prices....sentiment.  

This year sentiment overall has been booming in terms of house prices (Pricey London aside) despite the hard economic uncertainty to suggest such bullishness is counter intuitive.....and whilst I can say very little with certainty any more I actually think it will be sentiment rather than a particular trigger event in Feb/March that may bring falls. 

It’s sentiment those great minds can’t fathom and why it takes them by surprise. 😉

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HOLA4424

If you take my wife and I’s dozen couple friends, 4 have moved this year, 1 is currently selling and we too are actively looking. That’s after 5/6 years of no one moving at all. 

Two couples are leaving the city, cashing in pokey flats for family homes. Others are doing it to get more flexible accommodation for future lockdowns (mainly gardens). That’s our motive, a bigger garden for the kids. 

Everyone apart from me seems to be concerned about a crash though!!! I might buy over winter but it will only be of historic prices show I’m getting something that has scope to deal with a 10% drop over the next couple of years. A fixer upper should still be worth more after this.

Edited by Pmax2020
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HOLA4425
 

If you take my wife and I’s dozen couple friends, 4 have moved this year, 1 is currently selling and we too are actively looking. That’s after 5/6 years of no one moving at all. 

Two couples are leaving the city, cashing in pokey flats for family homes. Others are doing it to get more flexible accommodation for future lockdowns (mainly gardens). That’s our motive, a bigger garden for the kids. 

Everyone apart from me seems to be concerned about a crash though!!! I might buy over winter but it will only be of historic prices show I’m getting something that has scope to deal with a 10% drop over the next couple of years. A fixer upper should still be worth more after this.

I know someone selling a flat in Camberwell around £475k. It was valued at £500k so they nudged the initial asking price down to generate interest.  5 weeks, one viewing, no interest so given up.

ps I have no real idea of comparisons and it’s way out of my geographic area but they said very little seems to be selling.  

How are your friends doing selling flats in the city?  Impression I have been getting is that’s proving harder than many thought. 

Edited by Pop321
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