Speed1987 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 (edited) I have been right in my buying decisions for 30 years and it doesn’t make anything morally right nor would I overlord that on those who may not have been right and have lost out Whether you or I were indeed right isn’t the point for today....it’s what to do now. There are several posters suggesting to buy now which I genuinely believe to be a life changing opportunity to lose money and set yourself back 10/15 years. I would absolutely wait 3/4 months and see how things are panning out....I wouldn’t wait 10 years but for the sake of a few months it’s a great time to gather more information by just watching. For the thread: 1) Will interest rates rise.....I doubt it. Not for at least 2/3 years and it could even be longer. 2) Could house prices fall next year.....with unemployment (or the threat of it becoming real as people start to leave the paid sabbaticals and strolls in the park), businesses begin to suffer and a third wave hits longer and harder, absolutely. Unprecedented and unpredictable is where we are now. Affordability v sentiment. 3) Will prices fall. Well that’s a whole different Issue and only those with a crystal ball know that. Key for me is they could fall and anyone buying at this very moment needs to be aware of that. I honestly believe in March we will know so much more that I wouldn’t risk it. Then in March I would review again. It’s possible the government will allow the younger generation to forgo state pensions and health care for a lump sum today so that generation can prop up prices. In which case I would tell people to throw in the towel and buy....but today and right now I would tell anyone asking to see this winter through first. I understand you're argument, "people should wait and watch", its a sensible perspective. However, I would by inclined to buy now if I was a FTB. As interest rates fall, house prices will increase. As the money supply increases their deposit will be eroded and house prices will inflate. (This has happened already, 10% in my area alone and will continue, to around 20% by the end of next year. Historical data from previous pandemics support this). London may have some falls, but its at the pinnacle of the market. That market is governed by a reduced supply vs 500k where the potential buyers increase and do so as we go lower. Poor business models are failing and will be replaced quickly with new jobs in different sectors, we won't grind to a halt. This was occurring pre-covid19. The government will put in new measures, to prop up the economy and support jobs. Had you bought during each crash dotcom & subprime mortgages, you would be much better of now. Renting, is also very unstable and your money is lost. If my son, was 25 now, I would help him buy now before the negative interest rates, props, QE push prices up further. Edited October 25, 2020 by Speed1987 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 If that were the case then the govt and Boe wouldn't be propping up the market. There's a distinct appetite from the govt to prop prices up, but I think that is more to do with the mess the south east is in, not the remainder of the UK. Look at zoopla's heat map of prices and tell me housing isn't largely affordable. Minimum wage has never been so high, income tax threshold is high, rates couldn't be lower . There is a constant narrative on here that the majority of young home owners are 'feckless debt junkies' and I think that's a lot of nonsense. These strong opinions are driven by a jealously of all the people that have royally beaten the property market in recent years. I'm jealous myself!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 You told me back in 2017 not to buy a house, if I'd listened to you if be in a far worse position, not just financially but emotionally and from a security point of view too. In a sane working world not buying 3 years ago should not make a difference is the bigger picture here. That system is not sustainable. so a 22yo is far worse off buying than a 25yo ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 One thing I agree with the majority of people on here on is that it would be mad to buy right now. As a minimum people should now be waiting 6 -9 months unless you're looking at something that is seldom on the market, or its something you are confident you can add value to. ie. a project property. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 nice comments here from average plebs https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/10-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-199-ps749-fee-for-existing-customers-75-ltv-or-199-ps999-fee-for-new-customers-60-ltv-at-barclays-3567789 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 I'm not sure what this hike is? I'm seeing 10 year fixed rate mortgages for 1.79%! Two years at 1.19% This is before NIRP. Well must be some kind of special target mortgage, it's not a bog standard remortgage deal i can find, even with a 17% LTV. It could be a very high value mortgage, £10m + with a £12k fee or something, were lowest interest rate trumps fees due to amount borrowed. All the search engines come back with Barclays @ 1.99% 10 year fix, £999 fee, which we could get with 43% LTV. Although I would go for their 1.62% 7 year fix with a £499 fee personally. Mute point for us as we are on current 5 year fix until 2023, so i dont really pay any attention to mortgage rates at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highcontrast Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Well must be some kind of special target mortgage, it's not a bog standard remortgage deal i can find, even with a 17% LTV. It could be a very high value mortgage, £10m + with a £12k fee or something, were lowest interest rate trumps fees due to amount borrowed. All the search engines come back with Barclays @ 1.99% 10 year fix, £999 fee, which we could get with 43% LTV. Although I would go for their 1.62% 7 year fix with a £499 fee personally. I did wonder why @adarmonever got back to me about this when I asked the question. Thanks @markyh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 nice comments here from average plebs https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/10-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-199-ps749-fee-for-existing-customers-75-ltv-or-199-ps999-fee-for-new-customers-60-ltv-at-barclays-3567789 I’ve been posting on that one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Once we get hyperinflation, IR's will be 20%+. It's coming soon, as Boris and co can't stop printing to pay peoples wages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Once we get hyperinflation, IR's will be 20%+. It's coming soon, as Boris and co can't stop printing to pay peoples wages. So where do the wages go?.....to pay the rents and taxes....free money trickles up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 I understand you're argument, "people should wait and watch", its a sensible perspective. However, I would by inclined to buy now if I was a FTB. As interest rates fall, house prices will increase. As the money supply increases their deposit will be eroded and house prices will inflate. (This has happened already, 10% in my area alone and will continue, to around 20% by the end of next year. Historical data from previous pandemics support this). London may have some falls, but its at the pinnacle of the market. That market is governed by a reduced supply vs 500k where the potential buyers increase and do so as we go lower. Poor business models are failing and will be replaced quickly with new jobs in different sectors, we won't grind to a halt. This was occurring pre-covid19. The government will put in new measures, to prop up the economy and support jobs. Had you bought during each crash dotcom & subprime mortgages, you would be much better of now. Renting, is also very unstable and your money is lost. If my son, was 25 now, I would help him buy now before the negative interest rates, props, QE push prices up further. You sound very sure. I am not sure if anything other than waiting what is literally 10/15 weeks “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Your advice is best rush in just before Christmas, not point waiting ten weeks....last thing anyone wants is to be looking at houses in wet and cold January/February. I have relied on that mentality for 30 years and always found the best buys about then and agree a sale March before the weather changes. And this year that never been more relevant...never buy when people are queuing up to buy...never. Even in a rising market I have bought things easily 20% less than others by waiting a few months until the excitement dies down. The ‘excitement premium’ is clear for anyone to see....EAs are genuinely saying ‘really, asking price, are you sure?’ Which is why valuers are down valuing. Wait for the dust to settle over Christmas and review. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Switch625 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Wait for the dust to settle over Christmas and review. I could buy now, I was actually planning on buying just before all this madness really got going. Sure it doesn't look like a good move right now and who knows, maybe I have made a mistake, but I strongly doubt it. As Pop says, I will reassess after Xmas and if I am clearly wrong then I will wear a little pointy white hat with a D on it, take my medicine and buy. My money is quite literally on that not being the case and I am now looking at early in the year 2022 to buy. Ultimately rational people make decisions based upon evidence. When the evidence changes they change their decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 If interest rates are not forced up, house prices will not collapse. Any different? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 (edited) Once we get hyperinflation, IR's will be 20%+. It's coming soon, as Boris and co can't stop printing to pay peoples wages. You don't get hyperinflation when all countries are printing money at the same rate And if you do get hyperinflation holding a load of cash and no house, it's curtains for you anyway. Edited October 25, 2020 by Dreamcasting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 And if you do get hyperinflation holding a load of cash and no house, it's curtains for you anyway. I actually agree with you on this one. Holding cash in place of any middle of the road asset classes is not smart imho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 I could buy now, I was actually planning on buying just before all this madness really got going. Sure it doesn't look like a good move right now and who knows, maybe I have made a mistake, but I strongly doubt it. As Pop says, I will reassess after Xmas and if I am clearly wrong then I will wear a little pointy white hat with a D on it, take my medicine and buy. My money is quite literally on that not being the case and I am now looking at early in the year 2022 to buy. Ultimately rational people make decisions based upon evidence. When the evidence changes they change their decision. I think the potential downside is huge (and we might be wrong) but the potential upside is limited. It’s like any assessment of risk and at the moment it seems like we have a great opportunity to get a much clearer picture in a couple of months. Let’s be honest I don’t know on what basis Brexit will have happened never mind employment, a vaccine, third epidemic or rate change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 I’ve been posting on that one I liked the quote government will never let houses reduce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Hyperinflation without wage rises will be interesting. How are they going to make up for 0% inflation in the real work last 20 years apart from houses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayward Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 The inequality affects many of us, so I for one am glad the count is as vocal as he is, as I'm sure many others are too. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 nice comments here from average plebs https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/10-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-199-ps749-fee-for-existing-customers-75-ltv-or-199-ps999-fee-for-new-customers-60-ltv-at-barclays-3567789 https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/iphone-12-128gb-on-three-unlimited-mins-texts-100gb-data-ps38month-x-24-ps89-upfront-using-code-ps1001-total-via-affordable-mobiles-3569601/?itm_source=widget&itm_medium=sidebar&itm_campaign=hottest_deals You need this to improve your street cred... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 You need this to improve your street cred... Until I get a mortgage I will never have street cred. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 We buy at the right places at the right time.... We rent at the right places at the right time. A right time for everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Until I get a mortgage I will never have street cred. Why don’t you get a mortgage without a property Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 We buy at the right places at the right time.... We rent at the right places at the right time. A right time for everything. Is this from Chaucer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Is this from Chaucer? You tell me, never went to university.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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