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Realistic stamp duty date cutoff


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I know nothing about the process of buying and selling homes. From around what date would prospective buyers realistically expect to no longer complete in time for the stamp duty cut expiration on 31st March 2021? 

(of course, need to take into account that a lot of people are quite thick and massively leave things to fate when it comes to the single biggest investment of their life)

 

Edited by PropertyMania
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6weeks to a month before. I am pretty sure the seller won't attempt to gazump before the exchange with the cut off date so close, which will help move things fast. 

Wouldn't such a short time be a bit risky - any delays in the chain and you risk missing  31/3/21 = total disaster!

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Realistically if there is a chain I'd be going for end of November latest if the purchase was contingent on stamp duty discount. Christmas seems to swallow up two weeks where nothing gets done.

If no chain then it'll be much quicker. The risk may be that some people can't afford to do the deal without the stamp duty.

It is amusing that people are bleating for a holiday - even if it was extended by 6 months, we'd have the same type of last minute rush and whinging in 6 months time. 

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6weeks to a month before

Presumably if it's an auction purchase with a requirement to complete within 28 days then even (very) early March would be possible. 

 

Government urged to extend stamp duty holiday as conveyancers ask for patience

Ain't going to make a bit of difference as all the willing and able buyers have brought purchases forward and are now rushing for the April deadline. 

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Realistically if there is a chain I'd be going for end of November latest if the purchase was contingent on stamp duty discount. Christmas seems to swallow up two weeks where nothing gets done.

If no chain then it'll be much quicker. The risk may be that some people can't afford to do the deal without the stamp duty.

I imagine most deals depend on the stamp duty cut. So all else equal, we could see SD related price cuts as soon as December? 

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TBH I don't reckon so.

For the average property of c.£300k, even if it completes after they will simply have to find £5,000.

Some deals may collapse, but I can't see it being most of them. If it were desperate the seller could gazunder £2,500 at exchange and it'll probably be accepted.

For the deals that fall through, seller mentality will be that they can still attract a buyer who can complete, so they'll price it exactly the same.

I think it'll be much closer to March before it happens. 

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TBH I don't reckon so.

For the average property of c.£300k, even if it completes after they will simply have to find £5,000.

Some deals may collapse, but I can't see it being most of them. If it were desperate the seller could gazunder £2,500 at exchange and it'll probably be accepted.

For the deals that fall through, seller mentality will be that they can still attract a buyer who can complete, so they'll price it exactly the same.

I think it'll be much closer to March before it happens. 

Yeah, fair point. Was thinking in my London centric way where average prices around 500k = 15k saving
 

Disagreee slightly on second point though. you only need a few smart sellers to front run price falls to bring them forward. 

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Yeah, you could be right on that. I'm looking at London too, maybe substitute the word 'smart' for 'desperate'. 

For the modern blocks at least, there will be psychological price points at play. For instance, a block I got saved on my Rightmove had a few flats asking stupid prices in 2017 - £475k, £525k, even £575k I saw. 

It's flipped totally to a buyers market this year. There are around 10 similar ones and the price range is £425k-450k and still not shifting. 

If all of the 15k comes off the selling price and there are further reductions that means the probable selling price goes under £400k, that might make the penny drop for the owners (it was new build in 2016 and the price then was around £440k for new.

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To be honest it would make sense for the seller to pay for the stamp duty if it completes after the deadline, as it is very unlikely they will be able to sell for the price they have just sold it for pre stamp duty holiday and all the hassle to go through once again, its not as if they will be making a loss, what's a few grand out of the 100+ they would of made from the substantial increase over the years. 

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To be honest it would make sense for the seller to pay for the stamp duty if it completes after the deadline, as it is very unlikely they will be able to sell for the price they have just sold it for pre stamp duty holiday and all the hassle to go through once again, its not as if they will be making a loss, what's a few grand out of the 100+ they would of made from the substantial increase over the years. 

I have a feeling they'll end up doing this as a sales tax rather than a purchase tax.

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Nearly all the SSTC from the week of the cut are still SSTC as of now with the boards outside and no movement around here.

It may well be the boom came and went around here, with only a couple of homes actually completing.

A national lockdown will have a good chance of knocking the wheels off this.

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Nearly all the SSTC from the week of the cut are still SSTC as of now with the boards outside and no movement around here.

It may well be the boom came and went around here, with only a couple of homes actually completing.

A national lockdown will have a good chance of knocking the wheels off this.

Seeing exactly the same. All the houses i was watching that went SSTC have been sitting in this state since June/July. The only one taken off rightmove was an auction property. 

How long until a sale properly falls through and the vendor gives up on their buyer? Can a sale be in a perpetual state of 'about to' complete for over 6 months? a year? When is `too long` for the vendor to wait and put the house back up for sale? Worth saying that most / all of the properties i'm looking at would require significant renovation so i find it unlikely the owner is part of a chain and looking to move their family into a derelict property straight away. 

Edited by sammersmith
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I know nothing about the process of buying and selling homes. From around what date would prospective buyers realistically expect to no longer complete in time for the stamp duty cut expiration on 31st March 2021? 

(of course, need to take into account that a lot of people are quite thick and massively leave things to fate when it comes to the single biggest investment of their life)

 

I was thinking the same thing just this morning.  I reckon anyone agreed a sale by End of Jan will struggle to get in before the deadline, then there is the problem of chains collapsing as the economic outlook worsens, so maybe that that mach a month to the end of Dec.

So in effect people have been 8-12 weeks to get a 3% discount on a house with a 15% higher asking price.

I wish I was joking.

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I seem to recall that it was a similar fiscal cliff edge that provoked the crash at the end of the eighties. There was an abrupt end to the very beneficial "double MIRAS" in 1988 which caused a similar rush to beat an arbitrary deadline accompanied by a surge in prices, and followed by tumble weed and a collapse. 

Boom and bust in the 1980s

Repossessions last rocketed in the late 1980s and early 1990s following the housing market crash.

Many blamed the then Chancellor Nigel Lawson's sudden decision to end double mortgage interest tax relief in August 1988.

This meant couples could no longer both claim 30% relief on the first £60,000 of a mortgage.

The announcement saw thousands of people rushing to buy before the deadline, sending prices spiralling.

The subsequent crash left thousands of home owners with negative equity.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/141485.stm

And that was without a pandemic, mass unemployment, the biggest recession in history and brexit! A rational government would certainly not be reintroducing stamp duty next year. (But then the grown-ups appear to have left the building - or been chucked out).

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Looks like Wales had gone full lockdown again, so anyone moving there can add 3/4 weeks to their buying time so really if you've not found a buyer/overpriced place to buy and got the ball rolling by Christmas then you'll just have to pay the stamp duty on prices that fall 20% :lol:

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6weeks to a month before. I am pretty sure the seller won't attempt to gazump before the exchange with the cut off date so close, which will help move things fast. 

You're having a laugh? You won't have got the searches back in a month these days, and you'll probably still be waiting on a mortgage valuation. I'd want three months, and even then I'd be twitchy if a chain was involved. If there were properly motivated buyer, seller and solicitors on both sides and no chain then you might manage it in 4-6 weeks, but that is just about the best case scenario.

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You're having a laugh? You won't have got the searches back in a month these days, and you'll probably still be waiting on a mortgage valuation. I'd want three months, and even then I'd be twitchy if a chain was involved. If there were properly motivated buyer, seller and solicitors on both sides and no chain then you might manage it in 4-6 weeks, but that is just about the best case scenario.

Problem is those folks don’t want to pay the most.

I have been outbid on loads of houses and the vast majority are in chains property in SE

Take them out and it’s x percent off right away.

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I know nothing about the process of buying and selling homes. From around what date would prospective buyers realistically expect to no longer complete in time for the stamp duty cut expiration on 31st March 2021? 

(of course, need to take into account that a lot of people are quite thick and massively leave things to fate when it comes to the single biggest investment of their life)

When I bought my house back in 2011 it took 6 *months* between the date my offer was accepted and the date the sale completed.

I won't bore you with the saga as to why.  But these things can take forever.

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You're having a laugh? You won't have got the searches back in a month these days, and you'll probably still be waiting on a mortgage valuation. I'd want three months, and even then I'd be twitchy if a chain was involved. If there were properly motivated buyer, seller and solicitors on both sides and no chain then you might manage it in 4-6 weeks, but that is just about the best case scenario.

Even in normal times that would be short - we had an offer accepted a month ago and we're still waiting for the chain to form which I doubt has anything to do with the pandemic.

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