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The Times: All first-time buyers really want is a big housing crash


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No what they really want is a huge 95% mortgage on a new build shoebox they will spend their entire working life paying off.

Good luck with that! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8850057/Home-buyers-stump-40-cent-deposits-TSB-Barclays-stop-handing-mortgages.html

If the government think they can maintain prices, they're deluded. Well, we know they're deluded anyway

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Not impressed with the journalists these days.  The daft cow says 'big' as if that's some kind of impressive wow moment.

She needs to say something like "prodigious", "cataclysmic", or "gargantuan". "Big" does not come close to describing the 90% falls I am after 🙂

Edited by Huggy
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The only thing people need is non-perishable foods and something that can be used for fuel. These need to be hidden somewhere so that nobody else knows you have them. Where to hide them is the biggest problem, although buried underground in dense woods is a start. People also need some form of personal protection. Unfortunately we don't live in the US so you'll have to think of other things - homemade taser/stun gun perhaps?

Forget money in the bank. Forget stocks, precious metals and bitcoin. None of those things will provide you with any protection against what's to come once you realise that they're all worth the grand sum of zero.

edit - and you need to learn how to hunt for food for longer term survival. Stocking up on some solar panels and lithium batteries would be a very wise move also at this point.

Edited by Dreamcasting
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Yup, they're certainly going to get a big housing crash alright. The problem is that they're also going to get a big crash in their employment and everything else they might have. It's a net zero sum game.

Bingo!

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The only thing people need is non-perishable foods and something that can be used for fuel. These need to be hidden somewhere so that nobody else knows you have them. Where to hide them is the biggest problem, although buried underground in dense woods is a start. People also need some form of personal protection. Unfortunately we don't live in the US so you'll have to think of other things - homemade taser/stun gun perhaps?

Forget money in the bank. Forget stocks, precious metals and bitcoin. None of those things will provide you with any protection against what's to come once you realise that they're all worth the grand sum of zero.

edit - and you need to learn how to hunt for food for longer term survival. Stocking up on some solar panels and lithium batteries would be a very wise move also at this point.

Lovely dream, living in alaska. 

Unfortunately it's not practical to stock up with 6 months of food. It takes up too much space (ie you have to be rich to have enough space to store it). Plus vegetables go off very quickly. So within 2 months you're down to eating fray bentos steak and kidney pie every night. 

As for a year's supply of wood, jesus. You cut up 3 cubic metres and it lasts about 2 weeks. Before you can say "nail", you're down to screwfix on a weekly basis to buy another chain saw blade. 

So forget that dream. In england, you'd have to be a millionaire with 14 acres to make it work. 

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You just know the comments under that article are going to be full of pre-Boomers and Boomers relaying their heroic tales of how they had to save up with the same building society for 6 months before they could buy their first home at the age of 20, how young people these days just aren't willing to make sacrifices and expect to move straight into a 4 bed detached with 2 new cars on the drive etc.

Edited by Dorkins
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Great, thank you, it worked!

 

Am.  permitted to post the whole article or is it a breach of copyright?

 

"It may be that Covid-19 delivers this for first-timers. Off the back of the significant recession caused by the pandemic, Lloyds is forecasting a worst case scenario in which house prices could fall as much as 30 per cent by 2022." (Sunday Times 17th October 2020)

Edited by Buffer Bear
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Will house prices crash? Plunging valuations fuel fears

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/will-house-prices-crash-plunging-valuations-fuel-fears-6kzglptwn


Thousands of mortgages are falling through across the country as lenders sharply revise their estimations of worth


"Experts warn that estate agents are inflating house prices to win contracts
Experts warn that estate agents are inflating house prices to win contracts
GETTY IMAGES
Carol Lewis, Deputy Property Editor
Sunday October 18 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times
Three in four homes in some parts of the country are having their valuations reduced by as much as 20% as lenders become increasingly fearful of a sharp fall in house prices.

In a clear sign that banks are becoming nervous about rising property prices, valuations — carried out when people apply for a mortgage — are proving to be well below the price agreed by the buyer and the seller."

Edited by highcontrast
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/will-house-prices-crash-plunging-valuations-fuel-fears-6kzglptwn

Will house prices crash? Plunging valuations fuel fears


Thousands of mortgages are falling through across the country as lenders sharply revise their estimations of worth


"Experts warn that estate agents are inflating house prices to win contracts
Experts warn that estate agents are inflating house prices to win contracts
GETTY IMAGES
Carol Lewis, Deputy Property Editor
Sunday October 18 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times
Three in four homes in some parts of the country are having their valuations reduced by as much as 20% as lenders become increasingly fearful of a sharp fall in house prices.

In a clear sign that banks are becoming nervous about rising property prices, valuations — carried out when people apply for a mortgage — are proving to be well below the price agreed by the buyer and the seller."

Nothing more annoying than a FTB’er arguing with a bank about a low valuation. I have seen it plenty of times. It can be a golden ticket to either get a lower price or walk away from a bad deal. If sentiment is poor at the time then the vendors and selling agent have to listen to the ‘value’. 

I used to ring the valuer (and even did in the the first home we ever bought) listing a load of faults and why I thought it was way over priced. Valuers aren’t daft they knew what I was doing...but basically it told them ‘value this conservatively and no arguments from me’. 

Of course I then gave the EA the valuation and left it with them....hopefully a reduction if not, move on. 

Easier said than done though....this current market (Ie the past few months) have just been daft in the North. But normally a down valuation should be seen helpful for a buyer but like an injection it’s sometime a bit painful. 😉
 

Ps “Thousands of mortgages are falling through across the country as lenders sharply revise their estimations of worth“

The two are connected but it’s not lenders sentiment that reduces valuations....it’s valuations that reduce lenders sentiment. (I appreciate its a loop but this suggests it’s just the former...where things are being valued down because they aren’t worth the prices being asked) 

Edited by Pop321
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Interesting article quoted from the Times.  I am in the South East living in a commuter town for London.

Some cooling in the market but good properties still getting sold at inflated prices.  No sign of mortgages falling through here to be honest.

There also seems to be no shortage of people able to buy.  Though saying that a friend who was not on furlough and in a good job has just been told he needs to take a signficant pay cut.

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Will house prices crash? Plunging valuations fuel fears

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/will-house-prices-crash-plunging-valuations-fuel-fears-6kzglptwn


Thousands of mortgages are falling through across the country as lenders sharply revise their estimations of worth

 

One of the reason I posted that is that that is the second very bearish article by The Times in quick succession, something has changed in the media perhaps, at The Times at least.

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One of the reason I posted that is that that is the second very bearish article by The Times in quick succession, something has changed in the media perhaps, at The Times at least.

I agree. That point on its own is a very good one. 

I think the language and direction has been in one direction for far too long and this is an interesting change and it’s not the only one...some real challenges appearing as to whether helping people buy actually helps people buy. 

Some of the young people affected by this are now in their mid 30’s and having more of a voice and influence inside the and other companies. 😉

Edited by Pop321
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You just know the comments under that article are going to be full of pre-Boomers and Boomers relaying their heroic tales of how they had to save up with the same building society for 6 months before they could buy their first home at the age of 20, how young people these days just aren't willing to make sacrifices and expect to move straight into a 4 bed detached with 2 new cars on the drive etc.

You are fortunately wrong about some of them

"You have sent out guff masking the real issues. Here are some numbers to illustrate. The reason young people can't afford houses is because prices are too high, those prices, to take an example, have moved from circa £40k for a one bed flat in zone 3 London during much of the 1990s to north of £300k. That one bed flat needed a single salary of £12k or even less to buy back then. Now you need a single salary north of £65k. Salaries have no moved in step with house prices. Meanwhile a cohort, you I presume, have enjoyed the capital growth for no extra work. That same capital growth has to be paid for by people working and coming up behind you with jumbo mortgages. If they can even get them. Nonsense about not managing credit around phone contracts is laughable."

 

And

"There are so many factors keeping house prices high - it's not just a supply issue, it's a demand issue as well but few people talk about it. Here are some of the demand side issues:

  • Ultra low interest rates
  • Buy-to-let landlords (the lazy ones who simply buy up existing housing stock rather than adding to the stock)
  • Government policies such as Help to Buy
  • Decades of high population growth (mainly through immigration)"
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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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