nickb1 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Is this current madness the uptick that was a predictable one-off adjustment as a result of Rishi's stamp duty largesse or something more? http://www.acadata.co.uk/services/house-price-index/ says it's 3.4% yoy in September, not Halifax's 7.3%. Not the first time Halifax has issued incredible-looking upward numbers. There seems to be a sense of panic on the forum, but don't people think the end of furlough and Brexit just 2.5 months away will be more significant. Luckily Reading where I live still seems to be down >8% YoY and falling MoM. No London to leafy migration here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Furlough, unemployment, Brexit, whatever. None of them makes any difference. People need to understand that house prices are not related to any factor whatsoever. It's not what people want to hear, but it's the truth, and often the truth hurts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Is this current madness the uptick that was a predictable one-off adjustment as a result of Rishi's stamp duty largesse or something more? http://www.acadata.co.uk/services/house-price-index/ says it's 3.4% yoy in September, not Halifax's 7.3%. Not the first time Halifax has issued incredible-looking upward numbers. There seems to be a sense of panic on the forum, but don't people think the end of furlough and Brexit just 2.5 months away will be more significant. Luckily Reading where I live still seems to be down >8% YoY and falling MoM. No London to leafy migration here... Really appreciate this info. I'm not sure I've seen this index previously. The London data is fascinating and reflects what I am seeing in Lambeth borough but not so much in Wandsworth. I'm waiting for the LR stuff but this will probably take 3-6 months to establish any trend. I was also interested in the info. below. Unfortunately, the report doesn't seem to be scheduled for publication until December. The Housing Market As we highlight, the Chancellor’s stamp duty holiday has helped to sustain the momentum in the housing market - “a move out to help out scheme” by another name - and this will be sustained for a few months longer. Although the November Budget may be delayed, a spending review has been launched to allow the government to take stock and finalise its spending (and revenue raising?) plans. Clearly, with so much in flux this will be challenging. The evidence on incomes and employment/unemployment is complicated, though it does seem very clear that younger households are seeing falls in average incomes and in employment. Little wonder then that the Prime Minister has floated the notion of giving more help to younger households - not least by securing a steady stream of higher LTV mortgages, potentially via government backing - and to a rethink of the mortgage stress tests which have rightly in some senses tightened access to the mortgage market. The Bank of England has to date resisted any attempts to adjust the tests, and it will be interesting to see if the Financial Policy Committee statement due on Thursday 8th October makes any reference to this new development. All eyes are still focussed on the medium term for the market when the direction of the economy may perhaps be clearer post the Stamp Duty holiday, the original Help to Buy scheme and Brexit, alongside any new policy interventions. The continuing short-term “fire sales”, being held by mortgage lenders when they release limited numbers of higher LTV mortgages, gives a real sense of both the pent up demand from those with limited deposits as well as the pressure on lenders to manage down Furlough, unemployment, Brexit, whatever. None of them makes any difference. People need to understand that house prices are not related to any factor whatsoever. It's not what people want to hear, but it's the truth, and often the truth hurts. It may be an idea to read acadata's report. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 Furlough, unemployment, Brexit, whatever. None of them makes any difference. People need to understand that house prices are not related to any factor whatsoever. It's not what people want to hear, but it's the truth, and often the truth hurts. Well they have to be related to something otherwise there would literally be no explanation as to why they rise and fall, or are the same (ish) from day to day. I could wake up tomorrow and a small terraced would be £10m and the next day a castle worth 50p. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Furlough, unemployment, Brexit, whatever. None of them makes any difference. People need to understand that house prices are not related to any factor whatsoever. It's not what people want to hear, but it's the truth, and often the truth hurts. They are related to two factors. Interest rates and government props. So long as the first remains on the floor and the second does everything in its power to intervene, nothing will change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 They are related to two factors. Interest rates and government props. So long as the first remains on the floor and the second does everything in its power to intervene, nothing will change. The latter forces the former down. With props, there is no risk premium required via the IR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 The latter forces the former down. With props, there is no risk premium required via the IR So its all about the props. Remind me why this is called a "market"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 So its all about the props. Remind me why this is called a "market"? Remind me how the Tories are 'pro free market'? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54506853 Negative rates. Couldn't be broadcasting it any clearer to be fair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 They are related to two factors. Interest rates and government props. So long as the first remains on the floor and the second does everything in its power to intervene, nothing will change. Well they are not preventing unemployment from rising and they are not preventing the exchange rate crashing with a soft Brexit. So they are not even, apparently, doing everything in their power. I get that people look at the outgoings rather than the risk of interest rates rising, but if people are losing jobs and face a decline in the purchasing power of the pound, there are people at the margin who will need to sell. As soon as this results in a relative surplus of sellers I'd expect generalised falls again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Is this current madness the uptick that was a predictable one-off adjustment as a result of Rishi's stamp duty largesse or something more? http://www.acadata.co.uk/services/house-price-index/ says it's 3.4% yoy in September, not Halifax's 7.3%. Not the first time Halifax has issued incredible-looking upward numbers. There seems to be a sense of panic on the forum, but don't people think the end of furlough and Brexit just 2.5 months away will be more significant. Luckily Reading where I live still seems to be down >8% YoY and falling MoM. No London to leafy migration here... IIRC Halifax said that some of the 7.3% rise was down to figures being in a dip 12 months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 IIRC Halifax said that some of the 7.3% rise was down to figures being in a dip 12 months ago. I don't recall Halifax's index showing much of a dip at the time. Do they revise it subsequently, as more data comes in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Remind me how the Tories are 'pro free market'? Pro free market = embezzling public funds to line their own and their mates pockets. Its the Tory way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54506853 Negative rates. Couldn't be broadcasting it any clearer to be fair oh dear lord, just when you thought it couldn't get any more mental Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 oh dear lord, just when you thought it couldn't get any more mental They are only talking about a negative central bank base rate. I guess it would drive reckless lending by the banks, less money kept on account with the central bank per £ of loan issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 They are only talking about a negative central bank base rate. I guess it would drive reckless lending by the banks, less money kept on account with the central bank per £ of loan issue. I cant see it filtering down to negative levels for the savers/current accounts but they will certainly be at 0%. Maybe even with a small negative rate for larger amounts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 I cant see it filtering down to negative levels for the savers/current accounts but they will certainly be at 0%. Maybe even with a small negative rate for larger amounts? Charge by month for savers with "free" phone insurance thrown in... Borrowers, they had a negative mortgage in Denmark not sure in Switzerland yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Charge by month for savers with "free" phone insurance thrown in... Borrowers, they had a negative mortgage in Denmark not sure in Switzerland yet Probably! Not sure what I will do with my funds. Probably buy a shit load of gold and wait for the inevitable destruction of sterling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sprite Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 I think this really is dependent on the area. Some part of London are seeing drops especially flats/apartments. I have been keeping a tab on this as I'm looking to buy and have noticed gradual reductions in some areas. See below 2 bed flat in Chadwell Heath in decent condition and close to the station. Dropped from 290k to 250k https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/54418228?search_identifier=5d844d71ea185d9447bde5f7f02f7e7e All is not what it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 I think this really is dependent on the area. Some part of London are seeing drops especially flats/apartments. I have been keeping a tab on this as I'm looking to buy and have noticed gradual reductions in some areas. See below 2 bed flat in Chadwell Heath in decent condition and close to the station. Dropped from 290k to 250k https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/54418228?search_identifier=5d844d71ea185d9447bde5f7f02f7e7e All is not what it seems. They should check the mumsnet thread to get the right dried flowers in and wack the price to 310K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 They should check the mumsnet thread to get the right dried flowers in and wack the price to 310K Don't forget the twigs in vases ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fromage Frais Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Furlough, unemployment, Brexit, whatever. None of them makes any difference. People need to understand that house prices are not related to any factor whatsoever. It's not what people want to hear, but it's the truth, and often the truth hurts. Thats not what I get from the info. Seems pretty clear houses are a proxy for currency debasement and what news is bad for the economy is good for house prices. The volumes are low and the amount of money lent out is lower despite the headline price inflation. Less people buying more expensive houses with the ability to transact dependant on lower rates and tax incentives. The market is on a string at the moment but the government will find it hard to get more people into houses and at the same time keep those price rising conditions intact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayward Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 They are related to two factors. Interest rates and government props. So long as the first remains on the floor and the second does everything in its power to intervene, nothing will change. You are taking scarcity and competive bidding as a given? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 Really appreciate this info. I'm not sure I've seen this index previously. The London data is fascinating and reflects what I am seeing in Lambeth borough but not so much in Wandsworth. I'm waiting for the LR stuff but this will probably take 3-6 months to establish any trend. That's the claim to fame of the Acadata series, but its also rather opaque in its own way. It uses the available LR data for the last month, but combines this with forecasting until the data is in. This means that at a distance of 3 months, it's only LR data going into the series, at 2 months there is a bit of forecasting +LR, at 1 month (the Sept fig) there is quite a bit of forecasting going on based on the LR data to hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) That's the claim to fame of the Acadata series, but its also rather opaque in its own way. It uses the available LR data for the last month, but combines this with forecasting until the data is in. This means that at a distance of 3 months, it's only LR data going into the series, at 2 months there is a bit of forecasting +LR, at 1 month (the Sept fig) there is quite a bit of forecasting going on based on the LR data to hand. Thanks, I was wondering how legitimate the methodology being used was. Edited October 13, 2020 by Buffer Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.