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I think the housing market is calming down a bit now.


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I realise the indices are still reflecting the summer boom, but I think there have been anecdotes on hpc saying things are at least flat right now. I think the post lockdown mania has abated.

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Where I am looking in sw London is quiter.

Things aren't moving like they were in July or August. 

Would say that for places you want to actually live there's very few if any forced sellers or big reductions. 

Had a glance of flats and they seem to be coming off, particularly newish builds where the 2nd bedroom is a bed in a box. 

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Where I am looking in sw London is quiter.

Things aren't moving like they were in July or August. 

Would say that for places you want to actually live there's very few if any forced sellers or big reductions. 

 

Agreed

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I agree. Still, let us not kid ourselves, there is still some way to go.

I have seen a gentle level of reductions (this was happening anyway), but not many forced sellers, desperate ones, or even a large increase in volume listings. A rough estimate in where I am looking is perhaps +0-10% on this time last year.

For a lot of properties, there is some kind of mexican stand-off to see who blinks first. 

I do think there in each market there may be a psychological price level that if something breaches it, the penny may drop for sellers/agents of similar. Sort of how prices got anchored to the highest previous price, but in reverse. 

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I agree. Still, let us not kid ourselves, there is still some way to go.

I have seen a gentle level of reductions (this was happening anyway), but not many forced sellers, desperate ones, or even a large increase in volume listings. A rough estimate in where I am looking is perhaps +0-10% on this time last year.

For a lot of properties, there is some kind of mexican stand-off to see who blinks first. 

I do think there in each market there may be a psychological price level that if something breaches it, the penny may drop for sellers/agents of similar. Sort of how prices got anchored to the highest previous price, but in reverse. 

Yes. Would also suggest with mortgage holidays etc there wont be forced sellers for a while.

Another factor, is.. for me anyway.. if i found the perfect place at the perfect price, i would go for it and look to move complete in Jan.

Issue is if its kinda almost there.. do i want to go through all the effort and expense of lining everything up, only for moving to be restricted? or the market closed? etc in Nov - Jan.

Cant be the only person thinking that.

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You want anecdotes? I got anecdotes. 

1. Can't sell London flat (no garden) even at zero increase from purchase. 

2. Houses in nice part of home counties going well over asking.

3. But now the agents are ringing...uh oh you know that house you didn't get? Well would you like it now? Please?

We'll see how it shakes out but the job losses are going to start hitting. 

 

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I find housing market sentiment on this site generally runs weeks if not months ahead of the rest of the public. Probably that's a result of us following developments, news etc very closely. I think the economic reality of where we're heading has only dawned on many people since mid-Sept. 

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Things are what I would describe as normalish now. Houses that seem reasonably priced in good locations are selling reasonably quickly, I am seeing some forced sellers due to chain collapses (you can tell because they were on earlier in the year with furnished houses, now on again with empty rooms and phrases like Vendor Suited = vendor screwed!). In my view this is the quiet before the storm. I am seeing a lot of houses going on in Crawley Horsham area, which is heavily reliant on Gatwick. With much of the travel industry now Facing a multi year massive downturn, I expect to see forced sales rise sharply at the back end of this year. This will then feed into the wider Sussex area. Outside of areas like this I expect a slow grind down. I don’t see a massive crash happening, but I do think a bit of patience will see keen eyed cash rich HPCers nab 10-15% off 2019 prices (i.e. 20% off the current froth) over the next year.

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1 minute ago, HovelinHove said:

Things are what I would describe as normalish now. Houses that seem reasonably priced in good locations are selling reasonably quickly, I am seeing some forced sellers due to chain collapses (you can tell because they were on earlier in the year with furnished houses, now on again with empty rooms and phrases like Vendor Suited = vendor screwed!). In my view this is the quiet before the storm. I am seeing a lot of houses going on in Crawley Horsham area, which is heavily reliant on Gatwick. With much of the travel industry now Facing a multi year massive downturn, I expect to see forced sales rise sharply at the back end of this year. This will then feed into the wider Sussex area. Outside of areas like this I expect a slow grind down. I don’t see a massive crash happening, but I do think a bit of patience will see keen eyed cash rich HPCers nab 10-15% off 2019 prices (i.e. 20% off the current froth) over the next year.

Yes I'm monitoring 4+ detacheds in that region and seeing many more unfurnished places. I suppose some must be ex-rental or oldies pegged. 

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Yes. Would also suggest with mortgage holidays etc there wont be forced sellers for a while.

Another factor, is.. for me anyway.. if i found the perfect place at the perfect price, i would go for it and look to move complete in Jan.

Issue is if its kinda almost there.. do i want to go through all the effort and expense of lining everything up, only for moving to be restricted? or the market closed? etc in Nov - Jan.

Cant be the only person thinking that.

This is a really good point. I wonder how many people who have made offers etc are now worried about trying to complete in the middle of a lockdown. I can see a lot chain collapses coming soon.

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Yes I'm monitoring 4+ detacheds in that region and seeing many more unfurnished places. I suppose some must be ex-rental or oldies pegged. 

Some ay also be people who have bought elsewhere, got a bridging loan and are now crapping themselves.

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Posted (edited)

I think the government will underpin the market to prevent the bottom falling out, if it at all can. I don't think they'll stop longer terms drifting down.

Edited by Si1
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We’re in W8 and I’ve noticed a lot of mews houses and smaller terraces without much of a garden coming on the market in the £2m to £3m range, far more than I’ve ever seen in the 10 years we’ve been here. Most look like they’re OO as well.

Maybe people in smaller houses without gardens are fleeing London?

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Things are what I would describe as normalish now. Houses that seem reasonably priced in good locations are selling reasonably quickly, I am seeing some forced sellers due to chain collapses (you can tell because they were on earlier in the year with furnished houses, now on again with empty rooms and phrases like Vendor Suited = vendor screwed!). In my view this is the quiet before the storm. I am seeing a lot of houses going on in Crawley Horsham area, which is heavily reliant on Gatwick. With much of the travel industry now Facing a multi year massive downturn, I expect to see forced sales rise sharply at the back end of this year. This will then feed into the wider Sussex area. Outside of areas like this I expect a slow grind down. I don’t see a massive crash happening, but I do think a bit of patience will see keen eyed cash rich HPCers nab 10-15% off 2019 prices (i.e. 20% off the current froth) over the next year.

Just questioning whether the sales will be FORCED or will be more the case that people go "oh, now my Gatwick job is gone I'm going to move to some other part of the country".  I guess a mixture.

I guess it also depends what you mean by a FORCED sale, I tend to think of that being people who literally don't have enough money to make mortgage payments any more, so it's sell today or be repossessed tomorrow, whereas some of your unfurnished ones could be people who have already moved to a rented house in some other place, and now it's just tying up the loose end of selling their old house.

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Are bridging loans really that prevalent? I suppose in a 0 interest environment they're far more appealing but I always had the idea they were punitive rates. Anyone had one?

 

Typically 1% a month compounding. So pretty dire if you are using for more than a month.

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Are bridging loans really that prevalent? I suppose in a 0 interest environment they're far more appealing but I always had the idea they were punitive rates. Anyone had one?

 

My old company gave them. Never did one for a owner to use while moving house. Bridging is used for development\refurbishing not house moving.

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Typically 1% a month compounding. So pretty dire if you are using for more than a month.

Average term is 15months, using for building work, its part of the cost of business. Remember, people who use bridging don't have an income that would support a loan. A builder who wants to refurb a 1million derelict  house and sell for 2 million doesn't have any income until he sells it. Normal mortgages are un-vailable unless its habitable and the borrowers wage will cover it.

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Average term is 15months, using for building work, its part of the cost of business. Remember, people who use bridging don't have an income that would support a loan. A builder who wants to refurb a 1million derelict  house and sell for 2 million doesn't have any income until he sells it. Normal mortgages are un-vailable unless its habitable and the borrowers wage will cover it.

Completely understand in those circumstances.

Was being implied people were doing it here to buy a property while their house was still on the market.

 

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Where I am looking in sw London is quiter.

Things aren't moving like they were in July or August. 

Would say that for places you want to actually live there's very few if any forced sellers or big reductions. 

Had a glance of flats and they seem to be coming off, particularly newish builds where the 2nd bedroom is a bed in a box. 

I'm in SW11. Looking at one bed, 175-400k, the number on the market has increased from 60 to 100. Its been 60 for a couple of years last month there was a big rise in sellers. About 40 out of 100 have cuts in asking price,  average 25K since first marketed. Usually, after a month 15-25k is cut. then cuts increase, to 50k, 75k cuts in a  few cases.

Oddly two shared ownership flats increased by a couple of thousand. Nine Elms type apartment. £213,500 for a 35% share, ********. Both in the same building.

 

Prices in SW11 have been falling for several years, 2-4%, No letup.

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Was being implied people were doing it here to buy a property while their house was still on the market.

Thats what most people think bridge lending is about, in practice its about 0.1%, if that. I've literally never see it happening. 

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Things are what I would describe as normalish now. Houses that seem reasonably priced in good locations are selling reasonably quickly, I am seeing some forced sellers due to chain collapses (you can tell because they were on earlier in the year with furnished houses, now on again with empty rooms and phrases like Vendor Suited = vendor screwed!). In my view this is the quiet before the storm. I am seeing a lot of houses going on in Crawley Horsham area, which is heavily reliant on Gatwick. With much of the travel industry now Facing a multi year massive downturn, I expect to see forced sales rise sharply at the back end of this year. This will then feed into the wider Sussex area. Outside of areas like this I expect a slow grind down. I don’t see a massive crash happening, but I do think a bit of patience will see keen eyed cash rich HPCers nab 10-15% off 2019 prices (i.e. 20% off the current froth) over the next year.

Normalish?  The prices round here are 3x what they were in 2007 and up 1/3 in weeks 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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Market round here has not calmed down, my next door neighbours house has sold after only being on the market for a couple of weeks and it's set a new record for the street. Madness!

Also, when looking at the stats for Property Log the daily reduction number is pretty flat so not much change on that front.

I think the dream of buying a house at fair value is over for the next few years.

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Market round here has not calmed down, my next door neighbours house has sold after only being on the market for a couple of weeks and it's set a new record for the street. Madness!

Also, when looking at the stats for Property Log the daily reduction number is pretty flat so not much change on that front.

I think the dream of buying a house at fair value is over for the next few years.

Location?

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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