househunter123 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Looks like lockdown of housing market 2 is on the cards. Followed by more "pent up demand"? more props? Not this time. If we emerge from lockdown in a couple of months, I predict no pent up demand, mass unemployment, massive crash. But over optimistic that. Winter traditionally quiet. I've given up. I've been renting for several years and hoping things would decline , 10, maybe 15% for a decent house in the East Midlands for around the 200k mark. Not happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirtyduck Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 I purchased in 2016 as I’d spent 10 years waiting for a crash. I put everything into it , so no pension at age 45. I remember Osborne and the more spineless Dave C berating Labour for what they did to the housing market and then almost doubled them as soon as they got in. It’s a strong word to use “hate”, but my disgust for Cameron was that he didn’t need to be a career politician. He just wanted an easy ride and write his memoir. Boris Johnson is not different. Spineless weak glutton. No will to do the right thing and make painful decisions, as in the short term it would crucify him. Where all this is going I have no idea, but I’m certainly worried about what the future brings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 I purchased in 2016 as I’d spent 10 years waiting for a crash. I put everything into it , so no pension at age 45. I remember Osborne and the more spineless Dave C berating Labour for what they did to the housing market and then almost doubled them as soon as they got in. It’s a strong word to use “hate”, but my disgust for Cameron was that he didn’t need to be a career politician. He just wanted an easy ride and write his memoir. Boris Johnson is not different. Spineless weak glutton. No will to do the right thing and make painful decisions, as in the short term it would crucify him. Where all this is going I have no idea, but I’m certainly worried about what the future brings. Over the next decade, possibly: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2020/09/18/the-great-demographic-reversal-and-what-it-means-for-the-economy/ "The determination of (real) interest rates during the great reversal The rising inflation that we foresee in the future will raise nominal interest rates, but not necessarily real interest rates. There are multiple factors influencing the equilibrium real interest rate, r*. We doubt whether the prospective slowdown in world growth will depress r*. While slower growth will tend to reduce both ex ante saving and ex ante investment in the private sector, we tend to believe that savings will fall by more. If so, the public sector should ideally move back towards primary surplus to balance the economy. But rising health and pension costs, and the political unpopularity of tax increases, will hinder that. Political pressures may force central banks to hold short-term rates below the level consistent with inflation targets, thus keeping short real rates low, while market pressures lead to stronger increases in long rates, both nominal and real. The yield curve will become much more upwards sloping." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spacedin Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) I can't read the full article, but the description of HUTH did it for me .. Edited October 8, 2020 by spacedin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngram Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Similarly critical reactions on Bloomberg, by Chris Bryant : https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-08/u-k-house-prices-are-about-to-get-another-helping-hand First few articles are free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngram Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Not on Boris, but more bear food for thought, with numbers : https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-banks-risks-focus/britains-banks-turn-cyber-sleuths-to-crack-75-billion-mortgage-mystery-idUKKBN26T0RS Free viewing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 More meeja pushback: https://inews.co.uk/opinion/mortgage-5-per-cent-deposit-first-time-buyer-uk-housing-crisis-worse-young-people-680224/amp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 I purchased in 2016 as I’d spent 10 years waiting for a crash. I put everything into it , so no pension at age 45. I remember Osborne and the more spineless Dave C berating Labour for what they did to the housing market and then almost doubled them as soon as they got in. It’s a strong word to use “hate”, but my disgust for Cameron was that he didn’t need to be a career politician. He just wanted an easy ride and write his memoir. Boris Johnson is not different. Spineless weak glutton. No will to do the right thing and make painful decisions, as in the short term it would crucify him. Where all this is going I have no idea, but I’m certainly worried about what the future brings. My sympathies. I have a relative in Australia who is Tory supporting but no where near 100% loyal. When I told her what they did with help to buy they just said "That is crazy". The future is either a) no crash and more and more people have to pay crazy amounts b) or a crash c) hyperinflation so current prices become affordable? None of these are good. This situation could have been stopped so many times in the past it makes me weep that we are like this. IIRC there was just one UKIP councilor somewhere who was against Help to Buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 More meeja pushback: https://inews.co.uk/opinion/mortgage-5-per-cent-deposit-first-time-buyer-uk-housing-crisis-worse-young-people-680224/amp And more https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/08/boris-johnson-95-per-cent-mortgages-house-price-crash-banking-crisis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 I can't read the full article, but the description of HUTH did it for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 And more https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/08/boris-johnson-95-per-cent-mortgages-house-price-crash-banking-crisis They dont think its already on course for a collapse? Have these loons no seen how crazy the proces are? Their journalists will he out of work in the next 5 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) They dont think its already on course for a collapse? Have these loons no seen how crazy the proces are? Their journalists will he out of work in the next 5 years I think it may extend the bubble and lead to horrible ramifications over the next decade. Boris thinks he's a visionary but he's just playing cargo cult politics hoping for a win in 2024. Edited October 8, 2020 by Si1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 I think it may extend the bubble and lead to horrible ramifications over the next decade. Boris thinks he's a visionary but he's just playing cargo cult politics hoping for a win in 2024. Long term a crash - blamed on Covid - could be better for them. Sadly no British politician wants house prices to reduce - very few want even want stability! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammersmith Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) I can't believe i didn't notice this before. Now i can't unsee it! 🤣 Edited October 8, 2020 by sammersmith Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Long term a crash - blamed on Covid - could be better for them. Sadly no British politician wants house prices to reduce - very few want even want stability! 2015 was a spectacular GE win off the back of Help to Buy and triple lock One day the demographics won't support that. Not sure how soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 To short sterling, you have to nominate (at least one) other currency - against which you expect relative value to decline. When I was young, I assumed everyone wanted their own currency to be strong - so they could buy lots from abroad. I was shocked when I realised, a bit over a decade ago, that the opposite has (almost always) been the case... where representatives for each currency seek to devalue their own. On reflection, this makes some kind of perverse sense... if you assume those in control are selling assets priced in thier own currency. Or just want to level the balance of trade through competitive exports....... Germany famously undervalued the DM when they went into the Euro making most others relatively expensive. The Euro effectively pegging the relative value of all currencies at each other on day one. Don't have to look to hard to understand why they did that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bomberbrown Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 If you’re having trouble accessing the article, try going through the news app on your iPhone. It’s one of the trending stories. I found this version of the article. https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-independent-1029/20201008/281917365541975 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 I found this version of the article. https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-independent-1029/20201008/281917365541975 Brilliant. Thankyou. I can't find out much about Ben Chapman, the journo, other than he's a young ish serious business correspondent that's been around a few years now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 I found this version of the article. https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-independent-1029/20201008/281917365541975 Thank you. The original headline was a bit misleading, and quite confusing, but this (with a new headline) clears it up. Just a quick message to Ben Chapman too. Supply is one of the causes of HPI. Probably not the main one, but lack of it has not helped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForGreatLager... Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 I found this version of the article. https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-independent-1029/20201008/281917365541975 Brilliant. Thanks for this. I couldn’t find an alternative link to post earlier. I’ve updated my original post to include your link. I thought it was great to finally see an article in the MSM which succinctly illustrates so much of what’s been said on here over the years. Like many on here I imagine, I’ve been banging my head up against a wall for years trying to explain this whole rotten situation to people (particularly boomers) who either don’t get it, can’t see what the problem is, or think I’ve completely lost the plot. I’ll be sending them these links so that they can take it all in from a ‘credible’ source. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Ben Chapman could well be an enigma. He may only moonlight as a journo: https://www.independent.co.uk/author/ben-chapman But may be a risk manager at Deloitte during the day: https://contactout.com/Ben-Chapman-23856611 Same person? Also if so, he's a graduate of Manchester University, which might explain a certain non-establishment bias. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Suspecting the Deloitte profile may be a spoof since it's 3rd party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoWolves Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 His central argument is that interest rates will eventually rise. They will not. Not even in the face of wild inflation because it will trigger a wave of global sovereign defaults. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) His central argument is that interest rates will eventually rise. They will not. Not even in the face of wild inflation because it will trigger a wave of global sovereign defaults. Nominal interest rates will have to rise a bit if inflation goes up. But his academic background is history, law and journalism; so I don't think he's speaking from a position of actual authority. Edited October 8, 2020 by Si1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoWolves Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Nominal interest rates will have to rise a bit if inflation goes up. Sorry, seems intuitive and they may in the short term but CBs and governments can trash currency and sit on the sidelines/buy bonds until the whole system unwinds. I now see that they will, I once thought as you but I have stared into the abyss and seen their dark hearts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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