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House Price Crash Forum

Halifax House Price Index - September 2020


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HOLA441
 

The situation is so mad that it's defying the predictions of the VIs! Even they are saying it wont last, it cant last. Surely they are concerned that this is going to go into freefall at some point. "Generation Bozo" is only aimed at FTBs - can an army of FTBs with no dosh, equity, or skin in the game, used to renting and a suspicion of over-priced housing save the situation?

I suspect it's limited to Tarquins and Jemimas with family money and a job at daddy's friends company. 

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HOLA442
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HOLA443
 

This thing has legs now, right through till April next year, there will be a mad rish to buy after christmas, look prices are shooting up, we're losing our jobs, we need to buy now, it'll cost ups 3% more etc etc etc, then Boris' criminal government sub-prime 0.1% 50 year inter-generational mortgages will be wheeled in

Give it up folks, they have beaten us, our money is worthless.

Not to mention wealth tax on your deposit. 

what a shit show

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HOLA444
 

I wouldn't put anything past this socialist government. 

To add insult to injury, this authoritarian lefty shower have the nerve to call themselves Conservatives :(.

:lol: 

Ah well Bruce, you might as well shut this place down or rename it www.HPI_forever.com 

Brown did say "no more boom and bust".  What he didn't explain was what exactly he meant and how it would be achieved.  I think he actually meant, no more bust for the rich and no more boom for the poor, for that is what we are seeing.

The rich establishment cannot lose, we are all seeing this in the context of a connected world where we can discuss it and show easily accessible evidence of what is going on, but still they continue.

Total and utter ****ing madness.

 

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HOLA445
 

I suspect it's limited to Tarquins and Jemimas with family money and a job at daddy's friends company. 

They'll be the only ones to take it on, subsidised by the tax payer of course.

BTW why isnt he presenting this as HTB the Next Generation and avoid the scrutiny? The government already have skin in the game, why are people freaking out about state support with this scheme? Is it because it's being proposed at a time when money is being thrown around all over the place, and Osborne could create the smoke and mirrors because his overall front was one of prudence?

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HOLA446
 

I wouldn't put anything past this socialist government. 

To add insult to injury, this authoritarian lefty shower have the nerve to call themselves Conservatives :(.

I know what you are saying but do you really this the heart of this government is true socialism...and for the good of the many? You may not agree with socialism and I may not agree with capitalism but I know enough that in their true forms they are well meaning. This policy isn’t well meaning at all.  

Socialist? Lefty? Sure why not...blame something else other than corporate greed and a desire for politicians to stay in power  

Its not true socialism, it’s not true capitalism And to be fair it’s not even a Tory or Labour Party anymore, no choices now it all the same shower of sh1te...this is a scam to keep TPTB (left and right) in the manner to which they are accustomed.  

Its happy days...and if people keep blaming socialism then the diversion tactics are working. Maybe we could blame teachers or the police next, I will have to check the ‘list of who to blame’ to see what’s next  

———-
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HOLA448

As I've said before on here, we're a tiny minority. The majority of home owners don't want their property to lose value, people who have just bought want them to go up.

Renters are the ones getting screwed, and those who have waited a decade nearly to buy because they refused to pay such high prices (like most of us on here) are the ones who have been properly shafted.

House prices have been in a bubble for nearly a generation now, the only way they come down now is a full on economic collapse. If a pandemic, 9.6 million furloughed jobs, increasing unemployment and a shutdown of the UK economy can't bring asset prices down then what will?!

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HOLA449
 

 

House prices have been in a bubble for nearly a generation now, the only way they come down now is a full on economic collapse. If a pandemic, 9.6 million furloughed jobs, increasing unemployment and a shutdown of the UK economy can't bring asset prices down then what will?!

the combination of the above and Brexit? Seems worth a punt with the latter just 3 months away.

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HOLA4410
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HOLA4411
 

House prices have been in a bubble for nearly a generation now, the only way they come down now is a full on economic collapse. If a pandemic, 9.6 million furloughed jobs, increasing unemployment and a shutdown of the UK economy can't bring asset prices down then what will?!

That's my thinking exactly.

At every turn the use the slightest excuse to add another prop to the housing bubble when prices start to get even close to going -ve yoy.

The only think left now is actual collapse of the $, £ or Euro.

i.e. total collapse and another world war.

I'd expect this is what the bankers are playing for now. Win Win WIn.

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HOLA4412

Even these guys are in the denial phase:

 

Lucy Pendleton of estate agents James Pendleton said: “The often frothy Halifax index has lived up to its reputation and is pushing the bounds of credibility here. 

“However, it underlines just how much the housing market has become the economy’s iron lung of late, while its other vital signs flash amber at best.”

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HOLA4413
 

Even these guys are in the denial phase:

 

Lucy Pendleton of estate agents James Pendleton said: “The often frothy Halifax index has lived up to its reputation and is pushing the bounds of credibility here. 

“However, it underlines just how much the housing market has become the economy’s iron lung of late, while its other vital signs flash amber at best.”

Ironically....CV19 attacks the lungs.

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HOLA4416
 

I've just had a thought. maybe this really isnt about props, it's about home ownership and the next election. Am I going mad?

I think by the next election, a majority of the electorate will be renting so the paradigm will definitely shift on housing and renting but by how much is anyones guess.

I actually think if there was no BREXIT, the 2020 election may have had housing as the most talked about issue.

The young people in this country are definitely getting shafted though and not just in terms of housing.

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HOLA4417
3 minutes ago, Sprrite said:

I think by the next election, a majority of the electorate will be renting so the paradigm will definitely shift on housing and renting but by how much is anyones guess.

I actually think if there was no BREXIT, the 2020 election may have had housing as the most talked about issue.

The young people in this country are definitely getting shafted though and not just in terms of housing.

It's going to be a long 4 years. I think it will come as a shock to the Tories that propping up house prices doesn't always win elections, so paradigmatic it has become.

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HOLA4418
 

It's going to be a long 4 years. I think it will come as a shock to the Tories that propping up house prices doesn't always win elections, so paradigmatic it has become.

It is a hope. By the next 2 GEs, half the Tory demographic will be dead. The remaining middle age 'white van man' will find they are getting sh*t all for a pension.

Add in a new cohort of 'snowflakes' who don't care about landlord problems or getting on the ladder as they never will

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HOLA4419

Is it possible the types/quantities of properties are skewing the figures?

The areas in Scotland I keep an eye on seem to be stuttering. There are lots of reductions and the market is saturated with properties I’ve witnessed selling promptly prior to covid19.

Perth is a good example as were contemplating moving there for a while. I watched prices of older properties edge up every couple of months over a 3-4 year period but today the picture is entirely different. There are about 15 older ones all stuck on the market and each with a story ie. been on for 2 years, others reduced and others pitched lower than historic prices. Pitcullen Cresent saw sold prices of £360k last year on a 'fixer upper'... now there are 5 or 6 all stuck on the market, some have been modernised and one has even been reduced to £320k recently and still with no takers.

That's not consistent with these alleged increases.

A8FD22CB-70D5-4B77-B43E-F25BF3D01351.jpeg

Edited by Pmax2020
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HOLA4420
 

Is it possible the types/quantities of properties are skewing the figures?

The areas in Scotland I keep an eye on seem to be stuttering. There are lots of reductions and the market is saturated with properties I’ve witnessed selling promptly prior to covid19.

Perth is a good example as were contemplating moving there for a while. I watched prices of older properties edge up every couple of months over a 3-4 year period but today the picture is entirely different. There are about 15 older ones all stuck on the market and each with a story ie. been on for 2 years, others reduced and others pitched lower than historic prices. Pitcullen Cresent saw sold prices of £360k last year on a 'fixer upper'... now there are 5 or 6 all stuck on the market, some have been modernised and one has even been reduced to £320k recently and still with no takers.

That's not consistent with these alleged increases.

A8FD22CB-70D5-4B77-B43E-F25BF3D01351.jpeg

So. Who can buy, and who cannot?

The ones who can buy are those with houses already, and those with cash.

Those who cannot are first time buyers.

 

The former usually buy the more expensive houses, while the latter make up purchases of less expensive houses.

 

If only the former are buying, then house prices will appear to increase based upon sales.

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HOLA4421
 

Is it possible the types/quantities of properties are skewing the figures?

The areas in Scotland I keep an eye on seem to be stuttering. There are lots of reductions and the market is saturated with properties I’ve witnessed selling promptly prior to covid19.

Perth is a good example as were contemplating moving there for a while. I watched prices of older properties edge up every couple of months over a 3-4 year period but today the picture is entirely different. There are about 15 older ones all stuck on the market and each with a story ie. been on for 2 years, others reduced and others pitched lower than historic prices. Pitcullen Cresent saw sold prices of £360k last year on a 'fixer upper'... now there are 5 or 6 all stuck on the market, some have been modernised and one has even been reduced to £320k recently and still with no takers.

That's not consistent with these alleged increases.

A8FD22CB-70D5-4B77-B43E-F25BF3D01351.jpeg

Locally I see all sorts of anomalies. Some house types selling for £240k 10 years ago that are now still £240k. Others that were £240k that are now £550k. 

I can make no rhyme or reason to it but realise I have instinctively used that local knowledge to my advantage in the past. 

Even now I see the same house....ie effectively the same house on for £205k and £305k and the £305k sells. Genuinely the only difference is paint colour and a modern twist. 

My so  is looking (Depending on the winter market) and he is bewildered. I have told him we will use this to our advantage. 

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HOLA4422
 

So. Who can buy, and who cannot?

The ones who can buy are those with houses already, and those with cash.

Those who cannot are first time buyers.

 

The former usually buy the more expensive houses, while the latter make up purchases of less expensive houses.

 

If only the former are buying, then house prices will appear to increase based upon sales.

Apprently FTBs are buying like crazy! If you can believe this lot

"Halifax revealed it had received more mortgage applications from first-time buyers and home movers in the last three months than at any time since 2008."

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HOLA4423
 

Proper Mental.

That's 19% annualized, in the midst of a pandemic and with London falling.

At least I was right for a change, I said as soon as the magick cash and lower IRs came out prices would shoot up.

There you have it folks, more state sponsored theft.

I'd have expected this month to at least have seen a down turn but the 3% saving on stamp duty must be a real draw for people.

Closer to 20.983% annualised 

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HOLA4425

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