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Will the official retirement age soon be 75


Will the official retirement age soon be 75  

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  1. 1. Will the official retirement age soon be 75

    • Yes
      27
    • No
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The Government has run out of money, so they will need to do something, i think they will soon change the official retirement age to 75

Will the State Pension age change again?

State Pension age is gradually increasing for men and women, and will reach 67 by 2028.

State Pension age is going to be kept under review, which means that it could change again in the future, depending on different factors, such as changes in life expectancy. 

https://www.ageuk.org.uk/information-advice/money-legal/pensions/state-pension/changes-to-state-pension-age/#:~:text=In November 2018%2C State Pension,on when you were born.

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It's a bit of a stupid question.

What do you mean by "soon" do you mean next week, next year or the next decade ?

You might reasonably expect pension age to rise with life expectancy, and I think it probably will over time. There are several game changing things that could happen, like medical treatment improvements that could lead to life expenctancy improving significantly, meaning that it will need to rise. There are also demographic changes that need to be taken into account.

I think there is a possibility it may become means tested in the far future, but I would be very surprised though if it hits 75 in my lifetime because 67 to 75 is one hell of a leap, maybe it will go up to 70 by 2040.

Edit : It's also worth noting that bumping up the pension age in the far future (2028 onwards) isn't going to help with the cash position the government finds itself in now. I suppose it does give a market signal that governments are willing to attempt to get spending under control, and maybe supports their debt levels.

 

Edited by Gigantic Purple Slug
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It's a bit of a stupid question.

What do you mean by "soon" do you mean next week, next year or the next decade ?

You might reasonably expect pension age to rise with life expectancy, and I think it probably will over time. There are several game changing things that could happen, like medical treatment improvements that could lead to life expenctancy improving significantly, meaning that it will need to rise. There are also demographic changes that need to be taken into account.

I think there is a possibility it may become means tested in the far future, but I would be very surprised though if it hits 75 in my lifetime because 67 to 75 is one hell of a leap, maybe it will go up to 70 by 2040.

 

 

Under normal circumstances you would be right, But these are not normal "TIMES" Government borrowings but in August 2020 was £35B more than August 2019

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54289160

 

So i think within the next 2 years.

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How are you going to force peope to work until they are 75? If someone isn't employable then it doesn't matter what the retirement age is, they will have to be put on benefits. Private employers aren't legally obligated to employ people. So what's the difference between being on full benefits and being "retired"? Means testing the state pension is a far better idea, and the level could be set reatively low, say after an existing income of 12k a year the state pension payment is tapered down to 0 at 20k

Edited by Tiger131
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At what point does retirement age bump up against an average person's ability to do their a job?

Most older workers, mid 50's who "give up" putting much effort into their jobs eventually get made redundant. In my experience in the modern business envoronmnt all companies have regular rounds of redundancies.

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Most older workers, mid 50's who "give up" putting much effort into their jobs eventually get made redundant. In my experience in the modern business envoronmnt all companies have regular rounds of redundancies.

Where is the money coming from for them to survive?

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Where is the money coming from for them to survive?

A mixture of things everyone has different circumstances. Anecdotally from older colleagues who ended up getting the chop having a mortgage paid off helps, large redundancy payment,drawing the pension early, having a wife who still works, and is due an early retired public sector pension, getting an inheritance etc. Of course older single men could end up in dire straits if all they had was their job. I guess they have to try and beg a job at Tesco's and end up survivng on a low income benefits. Those who worked in the public sector will have generous redundancy payments and a defined benefit pension at 55.

Edited by Tiger131
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When was the age of 65 bought in...first world war??? What was the life expectancy of the average worker back then? Work being coal mining, steel workers, farm hands...all with no HSE.

Basically the country said "well done old boy (and it was a male pronoun) enjoy your last few months of life". It wasnt "well done now have 20 years of Saga cruises".

What ever the life expectancy of the average peasant is, subtract a couple of years and there you go.

Edited by Roman Roady
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At what point does retirement age bump up against an average person's ability to do their a job?

Depends upon the job?

Is it sedentary requiring years of experience, or is it shinning up a ladder to do some cleaning that any Joe (or Dariusz, Gustaw, Andrei, Mihai, Florin, Marius, Kazim, Abdul or Kareem) can do?

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3 hours ago, shlomo said:

The Government has run out of money, so they will need to do something, i think they will soon change the official retirement age to 75

The government can't run out of money as long as it issues the currency.

Wouldn't it be easier to end the triple lock, remove 25% tax free cash, remove higher rate tax relief, reduce subsidies to builders and landlords etc.?

I think it's unlikely the state pension age will increase above the age of 68 (increases are supposed to be related to increases in life expectancy)

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The government can't run out of money as long as it issues the currency.

Wouldn't it be easier to end the triple lock, remove 25% tax free cash, remove higher rate tax relief, reduce subsidies to builders and landlords etc.?

I think it's unlikely the state pension age will increase above the age of 68 (increases are supposed to be related to increases in life expectancy)

I know Prime Minister Jim Callaghan didn’t say, “Crisis? What crisis?” and that Benjamin Disraeli’s coalition quote was a case of political self-interest rather than constitutional wisdom.

I had, however, thought that Harold Macmillan really did say “Events, dear boy, events” when asked what was most likely to knock governments off course. 

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When was the age of 65 bought in...first world war??? What was the life expectancy of the average worker back then? Work being coal mining, steel workers, farm hands...all with no HSE.

Basically the country said "well done old boy (and it was a male pronoun) enjoy your last few months of life". It wasnt "well done now have 20 years of Saga cruises".

What ever the life expectancy of the average peasant is, subtract a couple of years and there you go.

Kaiser Wilhiem.

About 55.

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Kaiser Wilhiem.

About 55.

It is a common belief that old age begins at 65. Many gerontologists assume that the historical German chancellor Otto von Bismarck is the origin of this belief (Hayflick, 1994a; Hayflick, personal communication, 2012). According to this saying, Otto von Bismarck (1815–1895) engineered his rise to power by making the astute observation that his rivals, all federally employed, were older than 65 years. Acting on his observation, he in 1870 allegedly masterminded legislation, which would force all public servants who reached the age of 65 to retire. After this maneuver, he ascended to power with ease (Hayflick, 1994a, 1994b).

Albeit this story was cautiously considered to be partly apocryphal (Hayflick, 1994a), it appears that it has never been matched against historical facts (Hayflick, personal communication, 2012). This incited us to do a little research.

In brief, the story is unfounded. It was in 1889 that Chancellor von Bismarck introduced a pension scheme in Germany. Compliant with his proposal, the parliament, Reichstag, voted in favor of the law (Gesetz, betreffend die Invaliditäts- und Altersversicherung, 1889) on May 24, 1889. After passing the second chamber of parliament, Bundesrath, and bearing the signature of Emperor Wilhelm II, the law was proclaimed on June 26, 1889 (Gesetz, betreffend die Invaliditätsund Altersversicherung, 1889). This act determined the time of retirement at the age of 70 years (Gesetz, betreffend die Invaliditäts- und Altersversicherung, 1889).

Public servants, however, were exempt from the new law, as they were already covered by a separate pension scheme and were to retire after 40 years of service (Gesetz, betreffend die Rechtsverhältnisse der Reichsbeamten, 1873). At that time, the life expectancy in Germany (Bavaria) was 37.7 years for newborn males and 41.4 years for newborn females (Bayerisches Landesamt für Statistik, 2010).

In 1889, Otto von Bismarck was very close to the end of his long political career, and on March 18, 1890, he eventually resigned at the age of 74 years (von Bismarck, 1928). Nearly two decades after his death in 1898, the retirement age in Germany was reduced, in 1916, to 65 years.

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I know Prime Minister Jim Callaghan didn’t say, “Crisis? What crisis?” and that Benjamin Disraeli’s coalition quote was a case of political self-interest rather than constitutional wisdom.

I had, however, thought that Harold Macmillan really did say “Events, dear boy, events” when asked what was most likely to knock governments off course. 

The government can continue paying pensions. If it doesn't want to increase taxes, it can borrow or print to do so. There are consequences to each of these, but that doesn't mean it can't do it.

Why would they single out pensions as something to cut?

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At what point does retirement age bump up against an average person's ability to do their a job?

The problem isn't so much the pension age.

UK life expectancy has increased by ~10 years since 1990.

The problems are a mix of -

Large proportion if working age not working. Having a pension that only liked in after 40 years of work contributions would help.

- Unfunded public sector DB pensions. These are linked to state pension age. The cost if these is turning out to be ruinous.

The USS system is pushing for 40% contribution to stay solvent

A fully funded pension for a WPC is North of 60% pay.

 

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The government can continue paying pensions. If it doesn't want to increase taxes, it can borrow or print to do so. There are consequences to each of these, but that doesn't mean it can't do it.

Why would they single out pensions as something to cut?

Social security spending in Great Britain

Over 55% of social security expenditure goes to pensioners.

The government is forecast to spend £121 billion on pensioners and £94 billion on working age people and children this year. In 2017 to 2018 £121 billion was spent on pensioners and £96 billion was spent on working age people and children.

The largest benefit is the State Pension at £96.7 billion in 2018 to 2019, a rise of £1.2 billion in real terms since last year. It is paid to 12.7 million people.

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Those who worked in the public sector will have generous redundancy payments and a defined benefit pension at 55.

If you try to take a DB public sector pension it'll be much reduced. Generous public sector redundancy payments are a thing of the past too - often it's the statutory minimum unless it's voluntary severance. So say you'd worked for 35 years (minimum for a full state pension) and were on £30k you'd be getting £20k redundancy and about £15k pension at 55. So you'd probably want a top up job at least until retirement age. Your state pension would be reduced due to being in a DB scheme.

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Depends upon the job?

Is it sedentary requiring years of experience, or is it shinning up a ladder to do some cleaning that any Joe (or Dariusz, Gustaw, Andrei, Mihai, Florin, Marius, Kazim, Abdul or Kareem) can do?

I had very applied example with GPs.

One one worked down a mine died in mud 50s.

The otherdudnt, died mid 80s.

Despite the claim, most public employees life expectancy at 65 is wel over 20 years.

Fir stone- HE n education types, life expectancy is approaching 90.

Mix that with an index linked pension for a spouse who might be a lot younger, and you've a recipe for ruin.

 

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Large proportion if working age not working.

It's been much the same for 60 years at roughly 65%.

 

Having a pension that only liked in after 40 years of work contributions would help.

You only get a full pension after 35 years, and not necessarily even then. Since I had a private sector DB then DC pension with contracting out status I will get a lower pension.

 

- Unfunded public sector DB pensions. These are linked to state pension age. The cost if these is turning out to be ruinous.

Many are funded in whole or part. Hence the issue in 2008 when many public sector pensions turned out to have made poor investments. The NHS scheme is unfunded in the sense that current NHS members pay for the retired members and the government tops it up. That's a function of the NHS coming into being in 1948 - there was no other way to do it then and the same system remains.

 

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Social security spending in Great Britain

Over 55% of social security expenditure goes to pensioners.

The government is forecast to spend £121 billion on pensioners and £94 billion on working age people and children this year. In 2017 to 2018 £121 billion was spent on pensioners and £96 billion was spent on working age people and children.

The largest benefit is the State Pension at £96.7 billion in 2018 to 2019, a rise of £1.2 billion in real terms since last year. It is paid to 12.7 million people.

It should start getting easier in a decade as the dependency ratio will improve.

Pay hasn't kept up with productivity and if it had and tax had been slightly higher it wouldn't be an issue at all.

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If they do that and move the private pension dates back too, they had jolly well better increase the lifetime allowance!

I can't even touch my pot likely for 11 years, and I'm already 2/3rds of the way there.

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Social security spending in Great Britain

Over 55% of social security expenditure goes to pensioners.

The government is forecast to spend £121 billion on pensioners and £94 billion on working age people and children this year. In 2017 to 2018 £121 billion was spent on pensioners and £96 billion was spent on working age people and children.

The largest benefit is the State Pension at £96.7 billion in 2018 to 2019, a rise of £1.2 billion in real terms since last year. It is paid to 12.7 million people.

Isn't COVID the solution rather than the problem?

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


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