Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Fears of UK house price bust rise after summer sales boom - Financial Times


Recommended Posts

https://www.ft.com/content/16f82139-8fe2-49a8-93a0-27004489bb6b

Although, clearly they are more than simply fears - the property bods know what is happening on the ground right now (the stats come with a lag...)... prices are teetering and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sudden correction in prices through the late autumn and winter... 

The market has turned... anyone choosing to buy right now really needs to think again. 

"a bang looks pretty bloody likely at the moment" as Neil Hudson said... (a housing market analyst) - absolutely right. 

 

Edited by gruffydd
Link to post
Share on other sites
 

https://www.ft.com/content/16f82139-8fe2-49a8-93a0-27004489bb6b

Although, clearly they are more than simply fears - the property bods know what is happening on the ground right now (the stats come with a lag...)... prices are teetering and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sudden correction in prices through the late autumn and winter... 

The market has turned... anyone choosing to buy right now really needs to think again. 

"a bang looks pretty bloody likely at the moment" as Neil Hudson said... (a housing market analyst) - absolutely right. 

 

It might get so bad that Nationwide will report just a 1% increase YoY soon.

All 'bad' news is good news 🙂

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, Gruffyyd. From the article:

We’re going to see the bad news ramping up,” said Neil Hudson, analyst at BuiltPlace, a consultancy. “Redundancies among friends and families — when those things become real for people we’ll see the knock-on impact [on their willingness to buy properties

So, the availability heuristic will come into play. At the moment, things are all a bit abstract for many people re. rising unemployment. When people that they know lose their jobs, it will all change.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

I'm buying at the mo.  I dont see prices dropping by a large amount any time soon, more a period of stagnation.  Perhaps i'm mad. 🤪

I think its a bit like a tale of two cities. Things could well get bad but if you're in secure employment then you'll be able to take advantage of lower still mortgage rates. 

If you're working in a theatre or for an airline probably a different story but at NIRP i would think mortgage rates are converging on zero so even a payment holiday doesn't add much to the debt pile beyond spreading the principal over fewer monthly payments.... and only then when people have taken the maximum load duration. 

The sad reality (imho) Is that the GFC allowed TPTB to gain experience. Bad news reported and the stock market rallied anticipating more stimulus. 

All i can hope for is that wages increase going forwards to support would be FTBs and that wages growth supports the removal of props and that the party in power at that time takes that opportunity.... but i thought that the Tories would have done this under Cameron in 2010 and pinned the crash on labour. They could have built tonnes of new homes which is real stimulus for the economy and made them all affordable (not just some nasty little noddy box for cheap). Instead they screwed it and took the easy option. 

I ramble. 

I agree with you. Even in good times there's volatility in prices but get a place and location you love and you won't care about the valuation and you'll be happy paying the mortgage. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Special pleading in the Daily Mail

"

“Many economists predict a slight drop in property prices, which in turn could knock confidence and risk appetite in the lending markets again.

“Let’s hope that the ever-cheerful, creative-economist Rishi Sunak has something up his sleeve.”"

Express: Mortgage UK: Calls for Rishi Sunak to have 'something up his sleeve' as lenders struggle.
https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1341500/mortgage-bank-of-england-approvals-lenders

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

https://www.ft.com/content/16f82139-8fe2-49a8-93a0-27004489bb6b

Although, clearly they are more than simply fears - the property bods know what is happening on the ground right now (the stats come with a lag...)... prices are teetering and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sudden correction in prices through the late autumn and winter... 

The market has turned... anyone choosing to buy right now really needs to think again. 

"a bang looks pretty bloody likely at the moment" as Neil Hudson said... (a housing market analyst) - absolutely right. 

 

it has all the hallmarks of a bull-trap doesn't it?

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

I'm buying at the mo.  I dont see prices dropping by a large amount any time soon, more a period of stagnation.  Perhaps i'm mad. 🤪

Nothing will happen much, until it does, then it collapses, like in 2008/9.  In Q1/Q2 2008 no one was much interested discounts , doing a deal, selling at a loss, giving it away etc. Until the UK HPI index went YOY negative. Then is was official that house prices nationally where falling, and sentiment changed and off it went in Q3. By Q4 2008 nothing was selling, despite reductions. 

By the end of Q1 2009 interest rates where slashed to the lowest ever and HTB was launched. This save saved the market from a longer 1989 to 1996 downturn. 

I bought in 1996 and everyone and their mother was saying dont buy a house they only lose money, etc. Then they started rising. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

I'm buying at the mo.  I dont see prices dropping by a large amount any time soon, more a period of stagnation.  Perhaps i'm mad. 🤪

Quite possibly....yes. I bought many times when others were fearful and did very nicely from it. However that fear was reflected in the price. 

At the moment It feels as though we should be fearful but furlough, sdlt holidays and 0.01% thousand year low interest rates make us feel invincible.

A few months should give us all more information and make the decision to buy more considered.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

By the end of Q1 2009 interest rates where slashed to the lowest ever and HTB was launched. 

Incorrect. House prices recovered some of their 2008-09 losses when interest rates were slashed and QE was introduced. 

Help To Buy was an Osborne idea, who wasn't even in power until 2010. It was introduced in 2013 after he was booed at the London Olympics when his austerity measures saw a double dip recession in 2012 (later revised out of existence). "Let's hope we get a little house price boom and everyone will be happy" he told the cabinet about the scheme. 
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/10/osborne-reveals-true-aim-help-buy-inflate-house-prices

At the same time, the Bank of England introduced the Funding for Lending scheme, which resulted in savings rates being slashed and passed on to borrowers in the form of lower mortgage costs.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.