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Why are people buying despite predicted falls ?


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As per the title...

If the MSM/Government are telling people prices will fall 15% why are people buy ?

Is it some sort of desperation, do people thing saving 3% stamp duty is a bargain, is it some sort of sickness/mania ?

Please, someone, explain it to me.

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Most people don't get the message.

Most people have only experienced price rises.

The stamp duty cut acts on the same psychological method as the plastic bag charge. 

Over the course of 25 mortgage most people believe any falls will be short term.

People are sick of waiting and being cooped up. 

People are desperate. 

Most people are optimists.

Most people are very bad at forecasting the future, and actively prefer not to do so. 

Don't underestimate the amount of counter advertising in place to encourage purchases. You have no idea how many targeted ads anyone on facebook is receiving each day. They visit rightmove once, that cookie is telling the Zuckerborg where to send the Barrett homes offers. 45 million UK facebook accounts. 

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Most people don't get the message.

Most people have only experienced price rises.

The stamp duty cut acts on the same psychological method as the plastic bag charge. 

Over the course of 25 mortgage most people believe any falls will be short term.

People are sick of waiting and being cooped up. 

People are desperate. 

Most people are optimists.

Most people are very bad at forecasting the future, and actively prefer not to do so. 

Don't underestimate the amount of counter advertising in place to encourage purchases. You have no idea how many targeted ads anyone on facebook is receiving each day. They visit rightmove once, that cookie is telling the Zuckerborg where to send the Barrett homes offers. 45 million UK facebook accounts. 

Fair points I think.

All comes back to people are easily controlled manipulated.

Whereas the reality is....

Image

 

and the other reality is that the property owning establishment will do everything they can to stop this fall from happening.

 

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Please, someone, explain it to me.

 

 

Most people don't get the message.

Maybe most people do not see a home as a financial investment - they see it as a home.  Anyone who has bought from 2016 on has probably not seen a lot of gain in terms of property value.  

Not everything is about profit and loss.  

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Fair points I think.

All comes back to people are easily controlled manipulated.

Whereas the reality is....

Image

 

and the other reality is that the property owning establishment will do everything they can to stop this fall from happening. 

 

They are really panicking currently in the face of covid

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If the MSM/Government are telling people prices will fall 15% why are people buy ?

1.  The government isn't telling people that prices will fall 15% - there are just occasional articles in the MSM from different groups about what might happen.  People are either not seeing that message, or they don't believe it.

2.  Other than FTBs everyone buying is also selling.  If they didn't buy, they'd still be impacted by a 15% fall (on the old house) but at least by buying they now have a house in an area they want / with an extra bedroom for their new child etc.

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1.  The government isn't telling people that prices will fall 15% - there are just occasional articles in the MSM from different groups about what might happen.  People are either not seeing that message, or they don't believe it.

2.  Other than FTBs everyone buying is also selling.  If they didn't buy, they'd still be impacted by a 15% fall (on the old house) but at least by buying they now have a house in an area they want / with an extra bedroom for their new child etc.

Fair enough, not the government but the people who own the government says

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/u-k-house-prices-may-fall-16-due-to-pandemic-boe-says

 

If FTBs aren't buying then there are no chains other than ponzi-chains.#

 

It's not just the MSM predicting falls.

 

https://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/cebr-predicts-14-drop-in-house-prices-next-year.html

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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25 years of routine inflation, time after time, recession after recession...supported by banks and Government.

 

Must have coloured peoples views, though in 2008-2010 I know a couple of people know suffered/lost. 

You really can't lose on house prices, even when they are 20x your salary and everyone is screaming job losses/prices will fall/mortgages being pulled.

No wonder the car industry used to call the UK treasure island.

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They know the government will do just about anything to protect house prices (this was not the case in the past).

As we just witnessed yet another u-turn with furlough 2.0.

They will do everything in their desperation to keep the plates spinning.  There will be a day of reckoning, but I think it is a way off until there is another viable world currency which does not allow first world governments to print money out of thin air.

Not to say I am not hoping for moderate falls in the near future, I nee a reduction of about 30-40k around here to get in to the market.

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People don't really care about housing as an investment ?

They care about it as a place to live that is better than the place they are in currently.

It's similar to the way people buy the largest/best house the bank will let them buy. And why people will complain when the banks won't loan them money to buy something that is poor value, or refuse to loan against a property that isn't worth (in the banks opinion) what they are willing to pay for it.

If people actually gave a shit about this sort of stuff then house prices wouldn't be what they are.

We live in a society that does not encourage thought or personal responsibility. Peoples ability to make their way is based more on the lottery of how much they get to blame other people for their poor decisions, ie, now : the banks are bastards and won't lend me the money to buy a house, later : I was lent too much money and it's all the banks fault.

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They know the government will do just about anything to protect house prices (this was not the case in the past).

As we just witnessed yet another u-turn with furlough 2.0.

They will do everything in their desperation to keep the plates spinning.  There will be a day of reckoning, but I think it is a way off until there is another viable world currency which does not allow first world governments to print money out of thin air.

Not to say I am not hoping for moderate falls in the near future, I nee a reduction of about 30-40k around here to get in to the market.

I am not sure how to do a quote from another thread...but here is what I wrote on the Black Swan thread (page 866) in July...

"We are being led by managers not leaders.

They are almost a different species from politicos of the past; I guess thats what 25 years of a benign economic environment does (aside from the 2008 "wobble" when all guns were fired and emptied). OK maybe this is a bit of nostalgia speaking...but this shower are a pale shadow of our past...what is Johnsonism other than acting the buffoon toff?

Imagine a a group of people who inherit a room full of spinning plates who are told "just keep them spinning". The only real skill they have is the required "pole twiddle" which they can do rather well. They dont know how to fix a broken plate, where to get a new one from or how to make one.

Then theres an earth quake...they are lost."

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64134174.html?utm_content=v2-ealertspropertyimage&utm_medium=email&utm_source=emailupdates&utm_campaign=emailupdatesinstant&utm_term=buying&sc_id=31722700&onetime_FromEmail=true&cid=103b1b10-d5bd-4db0-8495-bc1a9e683374&csg=0bdfd6bd5a70d8ce55ef549acdd0792f7842840058f7a56bfbbf2c6a5e38aedd

 

I think that this talk of a new world currency is wrong...they will not give up their ability to print. However I do see a new world reserve coming in the mid term.

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They know the government will do just about anything to protect house prices (this was not the case in the past).

As we just witnessed yet another u-turn with furlough 2.0.

They will do everything in their desperation to keep the plates spinning.  There will be a day of reckoning, but I think it is a way off until there is another viable world currency which does not allow first world governments to print money out of thin air.

Not to say I am not hoping for moderate falls in the near future, I nee a reduction of about 30-40k around here to get in to the market. in to the bottom of the pyramid with it's full weight above me.

 

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The soothsayers, Carney, Osborne etc.  said Brexit would cause prices to fall. They haven't so people don't believe these predictions anymore.

Me thinks they might have lied to scare people into voting their way.

 

it's what the establishment do.

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The reason why people are buying is simple, they understand what you don't.

Each time the housing market comes under threat the goverment and BOE act to prop it up.

Now, we are highly unlikely to see all these companies laying off there staff, its more likely the GOV will step in. They are feeding you ******** and you are listening.

Also negative rates or somthing to support prices is very near, now if we go negative 3%- that will erode the debt of the owner (recent purchaser) & increase the value of the property.

You all know that the money supply is increasing, so expect prices to go up by around 20% by the end of next year.

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We are being led by managers not leaders.

I remember being taught about the difference between the two at university - and I'm not sure people always appreciate it - but it's spot on.

Those who lead paint a vision of the future, and form policies based upon how we get from where we are to that vision.  If some things have to be broken apart and re-formed to get there, then so be it.

Managers are focussed much more on just "how do we get to the end of the week without everything falling apart".

The big problem with the Remain campaign at the EU Referendum is they didn't lead; they didn't paint a vision of the future to bring the country along with them, they just engaged in project fear .... "vote Leave and it will all fall apart".

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You all know that the money supply is increasing, so expect prices to go up by around 20% by the end of next year.

-15%?  +20% ?

Why all these huge numbers bandied about?

Almost all the time, house prices change by much less than that in the course of a year.

I'm not in the business of predicting house prices, but what I would say is that if you predict extreme things happening you're always more likely to be wrong because extreme things don't happen very often.

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The big problem with the Remain campaign at the EU Referendum is they didn't lead; they didn't paint a vision of the future to bring the country along with them, they just engaged in project fear .... "vote Leave and it will all fall apart".

True.  If only remain followed the lead of Leave and used their clear and detailed plans of 'it will be good' and 'sunny uplands, innit'

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  • 429 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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