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Rishi Sunak’s next move


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It does seem amazing that people are only calling for an extension of the stamp duty holiday now.

Was it not forseeable that lots of people would try and cram in before the end, and even if it was extended, it would simply be the same towards the end of the new deadline.

It actually would be more educational to let it lapse and then bring it back again if needed. If lots of sales end up falling through because people couldn't otherwise afford the stamp duty then the whole thing is pretty messed up.

I suspect though that this is a cost that was long budgeted for by most and the removal of which simply boosted prices.

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Once we get a complete collapse of the current debt based fanacial system, no one will be able to give away houses for a tenner, never mind £50k.

My point about the £50k is that 99% of the population can't even come up with that without begging a bank for some created out of thin air fiat.

And yes, most normal properties are only worth £50k because take away credit and £50k now becomes a huge amount of money for the punters to find.  London is different because wealthy people tend to buy in cash, which is why the normal punters are p1ssing in the wind, as they need to borrow to buy.

Let's just wait and see who can afford £50k for a house when they can't borrow another penny.

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It does seem amazing that people are only calling for an extension of the stamp duty holiday now.

Was it not forseeable that lots of people would try and cram in before the end, and even if it was extended, it would simply be the same towards the end of the new deadline.

It actually would be more educational to let it lapse and then bring it back again if needed. If lots of sales end up falling through because people couldn't otherwise afford the stamp duty then the whole thing is pretty messed up.

I suspect though that this is a cost that was long budgeted for by most and the removal of which simply boosted prices.

Good point.

For me it’s no surprise at all. Those buying now don’t have a financial horizon insight of more that 3/4 weeks. If they did they wouldn’t be buying right now.😉

Regardless of longer term prices and the various uncertainty ahead of us.....who buys in a vibrant market during a warm summer with some inbuilt pent up demand? 

Really bad time to buy...even another 10 weeks should give us more insight and data. 

If the government announced a 3% reduction in ovens or TVs would we all go out and buy one? Nope because it’s not a material discount particularly if retailers then increases prices by 3% and remove all those juicy sales etc. 

Exactly the same with houses...small % discount compensated in many parts of the country with a small rise in prices....and worse still those juicy discounts on refurb properties disappeared because 3/4 people are looking and offering. 

My son is looking. Waiting for the frost. Not sure when but there will be a period (there always is) when people’s enthusiasm and sentiment fades....motivated seller....juicy discount. Allowing for inflation, a very small amount of work and some patience we will get something at around 2004/5 prices. Found a few already but weren’t suitable....told my son he can afford to be picky too. 

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My son is looking. Waiting for the frost. Not sure when but there will be a period (there always is) when people’s enthusiasm and sentiment fades....motivated seller....juicy discount. Allowing for inflation, a very small amount of work and some patience we will get something at around 2004/5 prices. Found a few already but weren’t suitable....told my son he can afford to be picky too. 

Maybe worth a few calls to local EAs, just before the Christmas break, reminding them that he is willing to buy for a seller with the right attitude.

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It does seem amazing that people are only calling for an extension of the stamp duty holiday now.

Rishi will have calls to extend any form of government intervention so long as restrictions in any form remain. Complete and utter can kicking; there is no end to this in sight. I've pessimistically written off the next two or three years, I suspect Rishi has for bringing down the deficit as well.

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Rishi will have calls to extend any form of government intervention so long as restrictions in any form remain. Complete and utter can kicking; there is no end to this in sight. I've pessimistically written off the next two or three years, I suspect Rishi has for bringing down the deficit as well.

Wow generous. Most had written the entire parliament off

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I wonder if the Tories are sort of glad that Coronavirus second wave coincides with Brexit?  There could be an opportunity to hard Brexit and then start from scratch, lots of cheap business premises and people in despair looking for work could be a basis for growth.  I would not bank on lots more bailouts, they may let the forest burn as such and then expect the new growth to be healthier.    

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I wonder if the Tories are sort of glad that Coronavirus second wave coincides with Brexit?  There could be an opportunity to hard Brexit and then start from scratch, lots of cheap business premises and people in despair looking for work could be a basis for growth.  I would not bank on lots more bailouts, they may let the forest burn as such and then expect the new growth to be healthier.    

Do you imply Hard Br*xit is the cure for the 2nd wave or vice-versa?

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yet you talk of an 'opportunity...' and a '..basis for growth'.  Can you explain what the opportunity is?

The point is more about using Covid as a cover for a harsh Brexit.  But to your point about opportunity, any crash opens up room for new business.  There may be an opportunity to buy or lease premises at a cheaper rate and to buy equipment from failed firms.  Bankrupt companies make room for new ones.  A fall in the pound may help exports and make local goods more attractive.  Companies may be in a position to get rid of older more expensive staff now and hire cheap labour later.  

 

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The point is more about using Covid as a cover for a harsh Brexit.  But to your point about opportunity, any crash opens up room for new business.  There may be an opportunity to buy or lease premises at a cheaper rate and to buy equipment from failed firms.  Bankrupt companies make room for new ones.  A fall in the pound may help exports and make local goods more attractive.  Companies may be in a position to get rid of older more expensive staff now and hire cheap labour later.  

 

The greatest, post-war, political change had no plan but waiting for a Global Pandemic?

 

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Yes. Only Br*xit doublethink can equate 'sunny uplands' and COVID decimation.

Handy though if you are the party delivering Brexit.  General message will be its not Brexit that caused problems its Covid, who can say either way which was to be blame if it gets difficult for people  

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Handy though if you are the party delivering Brexit.  General message will be its not Brexit that caused problems its Covid, who can say either way which was to be blame if it gets difficult for people  

Anyone with half an analytical brain can work this out but, you are right, most won't or will conveniently equate both together. 

You can already see it it in the '..but the nasty EU won't let us have our cake and eat it..waaah' type comments.

If I was Sunak, I'd let a double crash happen and leave it at the footsteps of both COVID and Br*xit.  Then use the recovery to pull a centrist, broad church conservative party. That would fatally undermine Labour, rejuvinate the Tory base with new blood, and push out the rabid right to the fringes to die off with UKIP.

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Anyone with half an analytical brain can work this out but, you are right, most won't or will conveniently equate both together. 

You can already see it it in the '..but the nasty EU won't let us have our cake and eat it..waaah' type comments.

If I was Sunak, I'd let a double crash happen and leave it at the footsteps of both COVID and Br*xit.  Then use the recovery to pull a centrist, broad church conservative party. That would fatally undermine Labour, rejuvinate the Tory base with new blood, and push out the rabid right to the fringes to die off with UKIP.

People will believe lots of stuff thats not true for various reasons

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Anyone with half an analytical brain can work this out but, you are right, most won't or will conveniently equate both together. 

You can already see it it in the '..but the nasty EU won't let us have our cake and eat it..waaah' type comments.

If I was Sunak, I'd let a double crash happen and leave it at the footsteps of both COVID and Br*xit.  Then use the recovery to pull a centrist, broad church conservative party. That would fatally undermine Labour, rejuvinate the Tory base with new blood, and push out the rabid right to the fringes to die off with UKIP.

I think they should let it crash as hard as possible and then work on creating thousands of new companies.  

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Anyone with half an analytical brain can work this out but, you are right, most won't or will conveniently equate both together. 

You can already see it it in the '..but the nasty EU won't let us have our cake and eat it..waaah' type comments.

If I was Sunak, I'd let a double crash happen and leave it at the footsteps of both COVID and Br*xit.  Then use the recovery to pull a centrist, broad church conservative party. That would fatally undermine Labour, rejuvinate the Tory base with new blood, and push out the rabid right to the fringes to die off with UKIP.

Yeah I’m sure that’s the path they’ll choose! 😂

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If we do get a second lockdown will Rishi uturn on furlough ending ? 

Of course! Can you think of any reason why not?

I can see him running it through to Easter 2021, that way Christmas can 'saved' and Marcus Radford put offside in a single stroke.

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