Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

Just having a think about unforeseen consequences (like back when I thought covid might be an issue) and it has come across my mind that this year could see a record spike in energy usage. Many more electric cars charging than previously and a much larger chunk of the population at home all day than usual etc. Could we actually be looking at rolling blackouts this winter?

I am also aware lumber futures have been high recently (shortages particularly in the US), I am aware that lots of coal burning plant such as Drax have been converted to US wood pellet  - I have no particular knowledge on this but would appreciate the thoughts of anyone on this forum who might know more.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Just having a think about unforeseen consequences (like back when I thought covid might be an issue) and it has come across my mind that this year could see a record spike in energy usage. Many more electric cars charging than previously and a much larger chunk of the population at home all day than usual etc. Could we actually be looking at rolling blackouts this winter?

I am also aware lumber futures have been high recently (shortages particularly in the US), I am aware that lots of coal burning plant such as Drax have been converted to US wood pellet  - I have no particular knowledge on this but would appreciate the thoughts of anyone on this forum who might know more.

EVs smooth out the supply curve in a big way, plus they are normally adopted by forward thinking folk that will take advantage of cheap power. Less spinning up and down = less wear on generation and infra.

Link to post
Share on other sites

People on here have doom mongered for years about how energy is going to be cut off "this winter".

Suffice to say it has never happened.

There was a guy on here who used to say the gas would run out pretty much every winter. Username something to do with Pigs IIRC. He was never right.

Energy supply in the UK is pretty well diversified, and if it came to the crunch we would probably roll back industrial usage in order to save the domestic supplies.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

People on here have doom mongered for years about how energy is going to be cut off "this winter".

Suffice to say it has never happened.

There was a guy on here who used to say the gas would run out pretty much every winter. Username something to do with Pigs IIRC. He was never right.

Energy supply in the UK is pretty well diversified, and if it came to the crunch we would probably roll back industrial usage in order to save the domestic supplies.

Just spitballing, since this is a huge change year on year. I was always under the illusion that there was never much space capacity in the grid, a couple of percent or so? Maybe there could be a combination of events such as lots of demand combined with a high pressure system sat over the North Sea rendering wind power out? Maybe.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

EVs smooth out the supply curve in a big way, plus they are normally adopted by forward thinking folk that will take advantage of cheap power. Less spinning up and down = less wear on generation and infra.

Yep as a 2 EV household BEV owners tend to have a higher net income, and are more financially savvy. If they charge during the day its to use up their free solar panel leccy to stop exporting it (will still claiming the 50% deemed export grant, while exporting 0%) and most will charge overnight after midnight on a special EV only tarriff like Octopus Go or Agile, or other specialist EV tarriffs. 

As mentioned, they help smooth out the grid. They are also not luddites with the caveman mentality, "i must plug in and charge as soon as i get home in case i need to drive to Scotland at very short notice"

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Just spitballing, since this is a huge change year on year. I was always under the illusion that there was never much space capacity in the grid, a couple of percent or so? Maybe there could be a combination of events such as lots of demand combined with a high pressure system sat over the North Sea rendering wind power out? Maybe.

There can always be a combination of events. If the wind stopped blowing, sizewell went down and there was a massive worldwide gas shortage then yes maybe.

But so far it doesn't seem to have happened. Probably because if we really need energy we can pay more for it than probably 90% of the world is capable of.

Ultimately if everyones electric bill went up by a factor of 2 there would be a lot of moaning. But most people would be able to afford it - just cancel sky, netflix and the like.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

There can always be a combination of events.

A combination of events?  Perhaps one in which government restrictions become a perfect excuse to mismanage the National Grid... with the ensuing chaos presenting lucrative opportunities to demand vast new government investment in new infrastructure?

In the 1970s, there were power cuts.  I think the best explanation for why is that industrial action was entwined with politics - resulting in an economic environment in which large numbers of people could no-longer be productive.  Now - that could never happen again - could it?  No-one with a political axe to grind could send everyone to "work from home" today - knowing full well that it is an euphemism - could they?

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Ah, the good old power cuts theory had to resurface once again on this forum. Bang on cue as well to coincide with that 'feel in the air' at this time of the year.

To be fair it was more of a question, given the unprecedented stay at home order. Lots of people at home with the heating on unlike a normal year - I’d say the general HPC hive mind is saying no from the replies.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

... if it came to the crunch we would probably roll back industrial usage in order to save the domestic supplies.

The industry already tries that via TRIAD charges for times of winter peak demand. Our workplace gets internally-sourced notifications to not use the lifts or make tea between about 4 and 6pm on the days in question.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

...and most will charge overnight after midnight on a special EV only tarriff like Octopus Go or Agile, or other specialist EV tarriffs. 

As mentioned, they help smooth out the grid. They are also not luddites with the caveman mentality, "i must plug in and charge as soon as i get home in case i need to drive to Scotland at very short notice"

 This overnight charging could make a huge difference by reducing daily peak demand.  Unlike other energy forms electricity is hardest to store, but renewables and nuclear don't have the controllability of gas or coal.  Pumped storage lakes running hydro electric generators lose about 20% in efficiency.     

Multi rate domestic tariffs could be a welcome benefit of smart metering, as is common with industry.

 There is a good argument for supporting renewables even if one doesn't give a toss about dolphins or rain forests: energy security for the uk.  Some European countries overly dependent on Russian gas have made a huge national security blunder here.

Grid demand real time

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

To be fair it was more of a question, given the unprecedented stay at home order. 

Not sure most people are taking much notice doing the sensible wash/mask/distance thing and getting on with life 

Regents st and the West End were pleasingly busy today

Its our normal style  - we gave bojo the clown a fair crack but his credibility totally blown - so in an act of unconscious consensus we go about our business to do the best by our families and livelihoods 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Ah, the good old power cuts theory had to resurface once again on this forum. Bang on cue as well to coincide with that 'feel in the air' at this time of the year.

😂

I love this place.

I worked out i spend 12 quid a month on gas. I couldn't believe how cheap it is! It would have to increase 10 fold before i even thought about it. 20 fold of turn it down a bit, take cooler showers maybe. 30 fold and I'd start on my stockpile of solid fuel for the stove.

How long will a tonne of smokeless and four cubic metres of seasoned hardwood last?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.