Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Post lockdown madness coming to an end?


Recommended Posts

The initial post lockdown / stamp duty cut fueled boom had me pretty much throwing in the towel when looking at Rightmove. Stuff was coming on the market at *crazy* all time high prices round here - things that would have been 400-450 in Jan suddenly being marketed at 575, stuff that was 320 at 400 etc.

At the same time recruiters were showing me a very different story - which could be summed up as 'be prepared to take a 20-50% haircut on your current salary if you lose your job at the moment'.

Well, ffwd a month and Rightmove round here looks very different. Reductions of the frothy ones added post lockdown galore, and new homes marketed at values now very often *below* what they probably would have listed at before the pandemic.

Phew. This is in a near to Cambridge commuter town. Anyone else seeing similar?

 

 

 

Edited by Frugal Git
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Frugal Git said:

The initial post lockdown / stamp duty cut fueled boom had me pretty much throwing in the towel when looking at Rightmove. Stuff was coming on the market at *crazy* all time high prices round here - things that would have been 400-450 in Jan suddenly being marketed at 575, stuff that was 320 at 400 etc.

At the same time recruiters were showing me a very different story - which could be summed up as 'be prepared to take a 20-50% haircut on your current salary if you lose your job at the moment'.

Well, ffwd a month and Rightmove round here looks very different. Reductions of the frothy ones added post lockdown galore, and new homes marketed at values now very often *below* what they probably would have listed at before the pandemic.

Phew. This is in a near to Cambridge commuter town. Anyone else seeing similar?

 

 

 

Yes. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, nome said:

 

Not seen a mini boom down here on the south coast. 

Prices had been falling up until June, stabilised for a couple of months but seeing reductions again now.

All seems very regional to me.

They need more props to stop another downward trend for both house prices and the economy, though personally I think they've shot their load. Everything is against them, SD tax relief effects are waining, wave 2 around the corner, pent up demand gone, banks reducing LTV further, unemployment rising, incomes reducing, all coming to a head as we enter winter.

If all economic and employment data is looking bad now, just think of the impact on the economy when house prices take their fall.

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Frugal Git said:

Phew. This is in a near to Cambridge commuter town. Anyone else seeing similar?

Much like Covid itself, the effects seem to be local rather than national.

I know someone looking to rent a house in the New Forest from early next year.  Brockenhurst is a long way to commute into London 5 days a week, but might be OK for 2 days and WFH the rest.  Asking prices to both rent and buy seem quite bubbly.

I've recently been spending some time in Haywards Heath, a dull commuter town which is convenient for those commuting into London 5 days a week but unnecessarily boring for those who now commute 2 days and could live somewhere nicer.  The market seems to be dead.

Edited by Will!
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Now or never said:

Not seen a mini boom down here on the south coast. 

Prices had been falling up until June, stabilised for a couple of months but seeing reductions again now.

All seems very regional to me.

They need more props to stop another downward trend for both house prices and the economy, though personally I think they've shot their load. Everything is against them, SD tax relief effects are waining, wave 2 around the corner, pent up demand gone, banks reducing LTV further, unemployment rising, incomes reducing, all coming to a head as we enter winter.

If all economic and employment data is looking bad now, just think of the impact on the economy when house prices take their fall.

Asking prices are falling very nicely in supposedly middle-class Hove.  The mortgage market restrictions seem to be biting.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Frugal Git said:

The initial post lockdown / stamp duty cut fueled boom had me pretty much throwing in the towel when looking at Rightmove. Stuff was coming on the market at *crazy* all time high prices round here - things that would have been 400-450 in Jan suddenly being marketed at 575, stuff that was 320 at 400 etc.

At the same time recruiters were showing me a very different story - which could be summed up as 'be prepared to take a 20-50% haircut on your current salary if you lose your job at the moment'.

Well, ffwd a month and Rightmove round here looks very different. Reductions of the frothy ones added post lockdown galore, and new homes marketed at values now very often *below* what they probably would have listed at before the pandemic.

Phew. This is in a near to Cambridge commuter town. Anyone else seeing similar?

 

 

 

I can speak about clapham sw4 - Not much is selling 

 

London is down at least 10%

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, shlomo said:

A have a few friends who have been to see houses, and the owners take them to the side and suggest they would accept a reasonable offer even £100k off the price

Sure.

If you were willing to accept those kind of offers you'd lower the price to increase viewings, instead of taking the few viewers aside and letting them know you'd accept 100k less.

 

I call BS.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Our searches around SW London/Surrey are now full of reductions and more and more properties coming back to the market. 

4 weeks ago EA's were ignoring us as they knew we were looking for 'value' and not going to join in with the mania. Last week the missus's phone has been ringing constantly with EA's encouraging us to view houses with asking prices £100k over our budget, suggesting a 'deal' could be done quickly and they know we're not going any higher than the number we've given them.

This autumn is going to be very interesting.

Link to post
Share on other sites

When I post on the "big & multiple drops" thread I self limit to examples that total to a 20% reduction from initial asking price or more.

These are still relatively rare (I dont want to be posting all day) but I have noticed some bigger reductions of late (more than 30%).

I will find one maybe two above 20% per hour session. I skim through roughly about 2,500 entries per hour.

There are loads of reductions in the 5% or less zone, possibly 15 - 20% of all houses.

5- 10% reductions ...still lots of them, approx 10 - 15%.

10 - 15% reductions...approx 1% of all houses.

15 - 20% reductions...approx 0.5% of all houses.

In case you are wondering how I can quote these numbers, I have been making tally notes over the past few sessions. Its all a very rough approximation and covers all different parts of GB.

There are increases, these tend to be modest percentages of no more than 10%. The main culprits here have been the new builds but I have noticed these have started to reduce again now in the past few days.

Personally I feel that the "big" reductions have plateaued but the amount of the smaller reductions has increased quite a lot since August. I am expecting these "little acorns" to grow this winter.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, definitelynotanagent said:

Sure.

If you were willing to accept those kind of offers you'd lower the price to increase viewings, instead of taking the few viewers aside and letting them know you'd accept 100k less.

 

I call BS.

People are not logical they do things on a whim.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes you are right - you are understanding the market better than most! I keep a close eye on the property market and regularly speak to surveyors, agents, etc. - the first "shift" down a gear took place over the last 7 days - reality is biting again with the resurgence of Covid-19. "It was manic for a few weeks but then suddenly it has gone dead... " - the words of one ea I know. Very senior - several offices. Thank God for that! 

Edited by gruffydd
Link to post
Share on other sites

Of the houses I've saved on Rightmove, so I accept that this is probably a subset which excludes things which are to my mind either awful or overpriced, and probably more likely to sell than average if my opinions on a decent house correlate with others.

20% still available, about half of these have listed/reduced in September so may just need time.

65% Under Offer/SSTC, nothing listed in September is SSTC.

15% No longer on the market, as yet none have appeared with Sold Price data.

Within the general Rightmove search I use for area/price/size there are 188 SSTC, 169 available.

A couple of the SSTCs were originally (gratuitously) overpriced, they went SSTC when they reduced to less absurd, though far from cheap prices.

Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

Yes you are right - you are understanding the market better than most! I keep a close eye on the property market and regularly speak to surveyors, agents, etc. - the first "shift" down a gear took place over the last 7 days - reality is biting again with the resurgence of Covid-19. "It was manic for a few weeks but then suddenly it has gone dead... " - the words of one ea I know. Very senior - several offices. Thank God for that! 

Haha -  thank you for saying that but I definitely don't understand it any better than most - I'd be sitting somewhere in the caymans if I did 😁

The only thing going for me is a head for memorising numbers and patterns when it comes to salaries, house prices and rents and correlating them together.

Anyway, the key thing is that between people who are property owners already, there's generally still plenty of slack in the system for transactions to be possiblea . Mortgage rates are low, built up equity values will be high etc etc. No worries, ask what you like.

But the reality is that new entrants are not in that position. And the market always needs those - even if they are buy to let scum! 

There are no props that can help the furloughed, the now unemployed, and the (rightly) fearful - not just about the pandemic, but the fearful that this market is just being held up by the government, which is more and more mainstream.

Part of me enjoyed watching the brief complete insanity!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Rents remain insane for now imho. But then housing benefit and universal credit housing element rates account for those 😤

I was recently annoyed at home so I fantasied by looking for a room in a shared house. Could scarcely believe what was being asked. Living in a small bedroom that swallows 40-50% of net full time minimum wage....beggars belief.

Link to post
Share on other sites

There has been a slight cooling here, but yet to feed through in to something more substantial. 

The nice houses are still getting snapped up and some vendors are still delusional. 

Our range is around 350k and we are cash buyers and not in a chain.  Unfortunately still not seeing value in this range though there is a slight glimmer of hope.  A couple of very average properties near sought after schools have been priced 380k range and have been sitting for a few weeks before going. 

In the mania phase it would have gone in hours, so that shows there is a shift. 

But even within my town there are different patterns and things are not uniform and don't make sense. 

We are looking for broken chains to appear which tbh have been very few. 

Added to this we are looking for Xmas time possibly to make a deal with panicked sellers realising they will miss out on stamp duty cut. 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for all the updates folks. Much appreciated.

 EastMidlands , homes are about for about for longer and many more reductions but not the exact types I'm after yet.  Almost through September now,  so will make enquiries towards the end of the month and hopefully start viewing again as haven't for the past few weeks to see how September would pan out. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, househunter123 said:

Thanks for all the updates folks. Much appreciated.

 EastMidlands , homes are about for about for longer and many more reductions but not the exact types I'm after yet.  Almost through September now,  so will make enquiries towards the end of the month and hopefully start viewing again as haven't for the past few weeks to see how September would pan out. 

I think I remember you're looking in a similar area to me. Mansfield, Notts? 

My search area is Kirkby in Ashfield and surrounding areas. Definitely seeing the back of the mini bubble.

1st September and it's a totally different housing market. Most of my saved searches are still available. Where as anything in August was being snapped up in days. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, fatspanner said:

I think I remember you're looking in a similar area to me. Mansfield, Notts? 

My search area is Kirkby in Ashfield and surrounding areas. Definitely seeing the back of the mini bubble.

1st September and it's a totally different housing market. Most of my saved searches are still available. Where as anything in August was being snapped up in days. 

More Leicestershire for me. Forgot to mention a decent, but on the  small side house I viewed, is back up for sale , wait for it, for the *4th* time since March. Sold in March, went back up after the lock down eased. Sold again, back on the market at 10k more, sold again and back on.

 

That's definitely not normal but I met the owners when I went to view after the second time it was relisted and said the buyer(s) pulled out after a month or so.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.