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What people are buying has changed. They want a nice house in a nice area with a garden. Location (the commute) is less of an issue than last year because they WFH more.

Properties that fit the current wish list are going up in price, whilst those that don't fit are (in the main) just not selling, so they don't end up in the stats.

IMHO, average values are actually falling across the board, but because prices are sticky on the downside, we only hear about the ones that have sold - the sold prices. They end up in the stats. The rest end up on Mumsnet.

 

 

Note to self: Try not to spam, try not to spam.

Edited by Timm
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1 hour ago, Timm said:

What people are buying has changed. They want a nice house in a nice area with a garden. Location (the commute) is less of an issue than last year because they WFH more.

Properties that fit the current wish list are going up in price, whilst those that don't fit are (in the main) just not selling, so they don't end up in the stats.

IMHO, average values are actually falling across the board, but because prices are sticky on the downside, we only hear about the ones that have sold - the sold prices. They end up in the stats. The rest end up on Mumsnet.

 

 

Note to self: Try not to spam, try not to spam.

How are people buying the bigger houses if they aren't shifting their smaller flat? 

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5 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

How are people buying the bigger houses if they aren't shifting their smaller flat? 

Good point!

Maybe FTB, HTB, BOMAD, BTL LTB?

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Excellent glad this has been published now.

Fortunately we have a predictions thread for this month

this shows that on this site only 15% of people were even close.

That is despite the economic carnage of COVID. Bare this in mind when taking financial advice from those on here there is a very large proportion who are massively wrong.

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1 hour ago, Pebbles said:

taking financial advice from those on here there is a very large proportion who are massively wrong.

People who were priced out a year ago are now even more priced out. You seem to believe people on this site have a range of options available to them?

Presumably you believe a young couple in insecure employment should have stretched themselves to buy a property 12 months ago. How wise would that look in the current environment now?

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3 hours ago, Pebbles said:

Excellent glad this has been published now.

Fortunately we have a predictions thread for this month

this shows that on this site only 15% of people were even close.

That is despite the economic carnage of COVID. Bare this in mind when taking financial advice from those on here there is a very large proportion who are massively wrong.

Yipee! I said +5% though. Do I win anything?

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2 hours ago, rantnrave said:

People who were priced out a year ago are now even more priced out. You seem to believe people on this site have a range of options available to them?

Presumably you believe a young couple in insecure employment should have stretched themselves to buy a property 12 months ago. How wise would that look in the current environment now?

The usual suspects told me not to buy in 2017. £30k paid off the mortgage and an LTV of 70% versus initial deposit of 15%. Seemed like the right thing to do then and still now. 

I think the penny that really needs to drop is that the total cost of buying a house might well stay the same but in any crisis the govt will step in to puke out cheap money and support for this, that and the other.  

To your rather specific example could someone in insecure employment even get a mortgage? If the answer is yes then are they better off having bought 12 months ago and taking a payment holiday versus not paying a landlord and getting evicted when that ban is lifted (and then hounded for the debt owed?)

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27 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:

The usual suspects told me not to buy in 2017. £30k paid off the mortgage and an LTV of 70% versus initial deposit of 15%. Seemed like the right thing to do then and still now. 

I think the penny that really needs to drop is that the total cost of buying a house might well stay the same but in any crisis the govt will step in to puke out cheap money and support for this, that and the other.  

To your rather specific example could someone in insecure employment even get a mortgage? If the answer is yes then are they better off having bought 12 months ago and taking a payment holiday versus not paying a landlord and getting evicted when that ban is lifted (and then hounded for the debt owed?)

Paid 30k of mortgage payments or 30k off the capital? I agree that doing nothing while waiting for property to come down in price is a poor strategy. I rent and save 800 quid a month through frugal living. That is 30k less since 2017 to pay interest on when I get a mortgage (I may not need one soon). No buildings insurance, solicitor fees or maintenance costs either. 

If I lost my job and wanted to maximise my chances of finding new employment wherever it was, I would much rather be renting now. The young couple you would have encouraged to get a mortgage would have lost that advantage, as well as the chance to cut costs by moving back in with family.

Edited by rantnrave
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1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

Paid 30k of mortgage payments or 30k off the capital? I agree that doing nothing while waiting for property to come down in price is a poor strategy. I rent and save 800 quid a month through frugal living. That is 30k less since 2017 to pay interest on when I get a mortgage (I may not need one soon). No buildings insurance, solicitor fees or maintenance costs either. 

If I lost my job and wanted to maximise my chances of finding new employment wherever it was, I would much rather be renting now. The young couple you would have encouraged to get a mortgage would have lost that advantage, as well as the chance to cut costs by moving back in with family.

£30k off capital. I am a saver like you. I always saved hard even graduating with my student loan in an ISA :) which was less to pay interest on. I put down £70k when I bought. 

The dream is being mortgage free for sure and I did miss the freedom of having so much saved and being able to just tell work to stick it and up and off if I ever needed too... not that I ever did of course. But there is something nice about being rooted in an area you like and that has much going for it. 

I only bought when I was 100% about the town and wider area (spoiler it's the region that SpyGuy thinks the total opposite to me) and in very secure employment with a secure job and professionally qualified which, let's face it, you need to be to buy anything on your own in a nice town in the SE. 

Not sure the young people with insecure employment would have been able to buy but if they had they could quite easily move in with family to cut costs and rent their place, or apply for a mortgage holiday which would cut outgoings (though it's all rolled up into the mortgage). But that is academic - if we're talking insecure employment like waiting tables or something then when did that enable anyone to buy a place?

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10 hours ago, Pebbles said:

Excellent glad this has been published now.

Fortunately we have a predictions thread for this month

this shows that on this site only 15% of people were even close.

That is despite the economic carnage of COVID. Bare this in mind when taking financial advice from those on here there is a very large proportion who are massively wrong.

+1

That the UK housing market is failing to deliver housing to millions of people, particularly younger people, is hopefully clear beyond doubt, that's why this website exists and it is probably the single most important issue in the UK today (or certainly was for 15 years until COVID took over).

However, my experience of 13 years on this website is that the majority of predictive posts are wrong, and in some cases disastrously wrong.  I've seen, amongst other things, predictions that the UK would run short of food in 2009, that the government would falsify the EU Referendum result to ensure Remain won, that £1 would fall to lower than $1, that UK house prices would crash 60-70% and consistent predictions of skyrocketing interest rates and inflation that have not materialised.  All of these things might yet happen...however, if you believed any of them over the last 13 years and acted on those beliefs you would not currently be well placed.

Hidden within the rubbish are the thought-provoking gems that keep me coming back, of course.

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9 hours ago, scottbeard said:

+1

That the UK housing market is failing to deliver housing to millions of people, particularly younger people, is hopefully clear beyond doubt, that's why this website exists and it is probably the single most important issue in the UK today (or certainly was for 15 years until COVID took over).

However, my experience of 13 years on this website is that the majority of predictive posts are wrong, and in some cases disastrously wrong.  I've seen, amongst other things, predictions that the UK would run short of food in 2009, that the government would falsify the EU Referendum result to ensure Remain won, that £1 would fall to lower than $1, that UK house prices would crash 60-70% and consistent predictions of skyrocketing interest rates and inflation that have not materialised.  All of these things might yet happen...however, if you believed any of them over the last 13 years and acted on those beliefs you would not currently be well placed.

Hidden within the rubbish are the thought-provoking gems that keep me coming back, of course.

I've never regarded the main purpose of this site as being a source of financial advice - that's more MSE etc. In a society seemingly drunk with monetising the cost of shelter, I find comfort in this site's likeminded folk who keep me sane amid the MSM messaging, conversations with others etc that I should be celebrating every house price rise.

I would never take financial advice from a stranger on an internet forum... A few years back I mentioned I'd got my deposit stashed away with Santander and multiple posters told me they were the next bank to go pop, I should get all my funds out immediately etc. I thought that was overblown, kept the funds there and the world still seems to be turning. DYOR etc

Edited by rantnrave
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19 hours ago, Pebbles said:

Excellent glad this has been published now.

Fortunately we have a predictions thread for this month

this shows that on this site only 15% of people were even close.

That is despite the economic carnage of COVID. Bare this in mind when taking financial advice from those on here there is a very large proportion who are massively wrong.

As Brexit hasn’t happened yet, we are only being treated to lies, Covid was only a twinkle and RuniShit wasn’t yet giving away Tax as a prop, maybe it’s irrelevant .

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  • 418 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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