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uk inflation at 0.2% - cover for more QE?


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32 minutes ago, Glenn said:

The phrase I have heard is 'indeflation' That is - the things you actually need, like food and energy inflate, but the things you dont need, like mammoth TVs and last summers fashion, deflate.

 

Said many times on here, most of the UK could cut their food bill in half and still be very well fed. The bankers will have to find inflation somewhere else I`m afraid......

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10 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

Said many times on here, most of the UK could cut their food bill in half and still be very well fed. The bankers will have to find inflation somewhere else I`m afraid......

I couldn't. Once you start buying Aldi value line bread there is no where else to go. Could try buttered cardboard maybe, which might not actually be much worse.

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11 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

Said many times on here, most of the UK could cut their food bill in half and still be very well fed. The bankers will have to find inflation somewhere else I`m afraid......

Some people have unknowingly already done this by moving from Waitrose to sainsuburys to tesco to asda to lidl/aldi.

There's no where to go from there.

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7 minutes ago, captainb said:

For those that claim the UK will be forced to increase rates dramatically to keep up with the USA.

FEDs expectation is zero interest rates to 2023.

Not sure where this inflation and rate rises are coming from looking at actual data. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/16/economy/federal-reserve-september-meeting/index.html

I think it is mostly wishful thinking and post-hoc rationalisation on that basis.

Obviously we don't actually know who will be correct but the overall trend in interest rates is clear (down), we have several long running examples of zero (or near enough) rates, and central governments everywhere have shown how they react to crisis. 

Obviously events can happen and things can change but in the absence of a crystal ball about events, the evidence suggests low rates for a long time.

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16 hours ago, Unmoderated said:

Not done nearly as well as the NASDAQ over the past 25 years though has it, and gold doesn't return a dividend either... rather it costs to store or you take the risk someone nabs it from you. 

I've just never heard a compelling reason to invest in it beyond "what if the world ends and you need gold coins at Tescos" sort of thing. I'm being dramatic of course. 

What motorbikes did you go for? 

CCM Spitfires limited runs of each model got quite a following but as they ramp up won't be sold at a premium lovely looking bikes - family owned business 

Great British success story the gamble on the Spitfire completely revolutionised the company - Norton tried copying but has gone pop

 https://www.ccm-motorcycles.com/

 

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15 hours ago, oracle said:

oh yes, shrinkflation as well, that's been going on years to fiddle the figures.

i think even perhaps going on with ready meals etc...the beef roast slices are miraculously the same amount,but cut thinner and you get more gravy and an extra spud to keep the weight the same!

It has, a good example of how the expensive ingredients reduced or sometimes excluded and a substitute put in their place......the bottles costing a pound just got smaller and smaller.......when we often would prefer to buy an XXXL size of the products we know, and will know we will use before the recipe or the weights and measures change.

16 hours ago, Unmoderated said:

It wasn't, the big mac index was always the big mac index and was specifically for reviewing purchasing parity of varying currencies. It was introduced by the Economist as a laugh a while ago but actually turned out to be a pretty good indicator of the direct of travel of a currency pair. 

Shrinkage or Shrink-flation to which you refer is reviewed by the ONS and where practice package sizes are reviewed and a price per unit weight or volume is used. 

Well the Mars bar came before the burger bar.....anything that stays stable and consistent which the mars bar did not.

The items put in the basket change......CPI and RPI now new index CPIH.....take your pick....spot the index that does not include homes to buy and live in.;)

 

Zen and the art of motorcycle maintenance.

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1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

CCM Spitfires limited runs of each model got quite a following but as they ramp up won't be sold at a premium lovely looking bikes - family owned business 

Great British success story the gamble on the Spitfire completely revolutionised the company - Norton tried copying but has gone pop

 https://www.ccm-motorcycles.com/

 

Gorgeous!!

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22 hours ago, Unmoderated said:

Gorgeous!!

They are and actually ride well if you look at the history Alan Clews created the business for competition bikes. They have heritage so all the components are high end Bembo Brakes, Decent Husky engine etc

The story goes they were bumbling along and some lads at tea break over  a bacon bap said we can take on those soft southerners in Hoxton with a rideable proper custom 😉- and within 5 months got the  original  market - since then they have refined them my latest rides much better than the one two years ago though all good 

Have a lot of friends Foggy, James Blunt has one - rumour has it just missed out on the new Bond film but they wanted 20 bikes to use and abuse for free and they just couldn't run to it

 

Edited by GregBowman
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6 hours ago, GregBowman said:

They are and actually ride well if you look at the history Alan Clews created the business for competition bikes. They have heritage so all the components are high end Bembo Brakes, Decent Husky engine etc

The story goes they were bumbling along and some lads at tea break over  a bacon bap said we can take on those soft southerners in Hoxton with a rideable proper custom 😉- and within 5 months got to original  market

Have a lot of friends Foggy, James Blunt has one - rumour has it just missed out on the new Bond film but they wanted 20 bikes to use and abuse for free and they just couldn't run to it

 

Clearly derailing the thread but I'm tempted by these. A friend of mine is into classics and rode an Enfield around India. He had a few in the UK and bought old ones and repaired them (all sorts) but just bought an Enfield Interceptor. I like the look of that but these are something else :)............ sexier than gold ;) 

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On 16/09/2020 at 16:19, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That's the establishments propaganda line.

Do you stop eating because it will be cheaper next month ?

Do you stop driving because it will be cheaper next month ?

Do you stop buying a new washing machine when yours breaks down because it will be cheaper next month ?

I get the distinct feeling that the rich/establishment are lying ******s

No because you've cherry picked necessities and emergency situations.

I won't stop EATING - but I might defer a restaurant meal from today to next month if I thought it would be cheaper.

I won't stop DRIVING - but I might defer a new car from today to next month if I thought it would be cheaper.

I won't stop replacing a BROKEN washing machine - but I might defer UPGRADING my washing machine or fridge or hi-fi or whatever to a better model.

The bottom line is, people don't buy today for £1,000 what they can buy tomorrow for £950 unless they absolutely need it today.  That's why deflation slows down economies.

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34 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

No because you've cherry picked necessities and emergency situations.

I won't stop EATING - but I might defer a restaurant meal from today to next month if I thought it would be cheaper.

I won't stop DRIVING - but I might defer a new car from today to next month if I thought it would be cheaper.

I won't stop replacing a BROKEN washing machine - but I might defer UPGRADING my washing machine or fridge or hi-fi or whatever to a better model.

The bottom line is, people don't buy today for £1,000 what they can buy tomorrow for £950 unless they absolutely need it today.  That's why deflation slows down economies.

No one needs stuff, so the economy slows, who suffers ?

Maybe environmentally/socially it's actually a good thing.

 

Plasma screen TVs...first time I saw one was in the U.S. years ago, was 20,000 dollars.

People were buying them though knowing full well in 10 years time they'd be 1000 dollars.

I'd be careful believing the establishment's line on anything right now, esp deflation/inflation, esp when one side of that coin is profiting a very small demographic of the country.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

No one needs stuff, so the economy slows, who suffers ?

Maybe environmentally/socially it's actually a good thing.

Environmentally it's a great thing.

However, economically everyone suffers (a bit) - the consumer doesn't get their new thing until a month later (so has slightly lower utility from having to struggle on with the old thing for a bit longer) whilst the manufacturer and retailer have their sales delayed (and ultimately will likely have fewer sales in total as people string out using the old stuff more waiting for lower prices).

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3 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Environmentally it's a great thing.

However, economically everyone suffers (a bit) - the consumer doesn't get their new thing until a month later (so has slightly lower utility from having to struggle on with the old thing for a bit longer) whilst the manufacturer and retailer have their sales delayed (and ultimately will likely have fewer sales in total as people string out using the old stuff more waiting for lower prices).

Pick your suffering 🙂

 

We dont seem to get a choice in it.

Someone's convinced people that there is an economy that must keep growing, buy it now, have it now....ask yourself, who is profiting, better still, ask yourself, how much are the bankers profiting.

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12 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Some people have unknowingly already done this by moving from Waitrose to sainsuburys to tesco to asda to lidl/aldi.

There's no where to go from there.

Except say f*uck it and back to Pizza Hut? I don`t buy that the majority are at a breadline level or anywhere near, many a former fatty will be digging their old jeans out of the closet before this is over though IMO.

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10 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

Except say f*uck it and back to Pizza Hut? I don`t buy that the majority are at a breadline level or anywhere near, many a former fatty will be digging their old jeans out of the closet before this is over though IMO.

All depends on your social circle I guess.

All the people I know who look like they have money can't complain about not being able to afford X/Y/Z.  It's quite bizarre, they are mostly professionals with big mortgages, so I dont get it.

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16 hours ago, Unmoderated said:

Clearly derailing the thread but I'm tempted by these. A friend of mine is into classics and rode an Enfield around India. He had a few in the UK and bought old ones and repaired them (all sorts) but just bought an Enfield Interceptor. I like the look of that but these are something else :)............ sexier than gold ;) 

Why not it's Friday ! You won't be disappointed ! I rode a Royal Enfield for two weeks whilst out in India on business loved it - 500 engineers now In Redditch at their new design centre really coming on 

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  • 418 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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