Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

uk inflation at 0.2% - cover for more QE?


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 76
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

14 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

"So deflation is a real concern"

 

Why is deflation a real concern, when inflation/QR/low IRs has made the rich richer.

Id say "inflation/QR/low IRs " are the real concern.

Deflation undermines spending. If people think something is going to be cheaper in a few months, especially bigger ticket items, they stop buying now.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Deflation undermines spending. If people think something is going to be cheaper in a few months, especially bigger ticket items, they stop buying now.

Which means the seller has to reduce the price of a TV say to get a sale, and the cycle continues. 

Hard to break out from 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, definitelynotanagent said:

The BBC (quoting ONS) are reporting UK inflation at 0.2% for August: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54173658 

 

Given that the "target" is 2%, how will they achieve this in the near term future (I know they always miss..)?

This might well be used as cover for a lot of printing, because someone has to pay for all those bounce back loans and furlough wages (savers, as always), but if things get really bad they might even post cheques out to everyone in the UK (ala the 'Trump cheque').

 

My personal suspicion/opinion is that the printers are currently having their ink cartridges replaced, and the helicopters are being refuelled.

We have a reasonable amount of savings at the moment (almost nothing compared to some on here), but I'm getting a bit worried about how to protect them if I'm honest - the stock market looks ropey, cash will be trashed etc, property except main residence - just no.

 

Interesting times.

 

I follow one metric, Aldi Value Butter 250g block.  Back in 2014 it got at low as 99p from about a prior £1.25 high. Today it is £1.45. So yes we have had inflation it UK dairy that is supposed to be massively over supplied.

Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, markyh said:

 

I follow one metric, Aldi Value Butter 250g block.  Back in 2014 it got at low as 99p from about a prior £1.25 high. Today it is £1.45. So yes we have had inflation it UK dairy that is supposed to be massively over supplied.

Actually that is not as crazy as it seems - I like these kind of real world metrics. Who eats TVs?

Do you have any more products that you track?

I don't know what compound official CPI from 2014 to today is, but I bet it's not 45% :)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

Deflation undermines spending. If people think something is going to be cheaper in a few months, especially bigger ticket items, they stop buying now.

That's the establishments propaganda line.

Do you stop eating because it will be cheaper next month ?

Do you stop driving because it will be cheaper next month ?

Do you stop buying a new washing machine when yours breaks down because it will be cheaper next month ?

I get the distinct feeling that the rich/establishment are lying ******s

Link to post
Share on other sites

Inflation falls because of Help to Obese?... REALLY WTF! The price of the meals did not fall – half the bill was picked up by other or future taxpayers!
So if the neighbour and I go food shopping at the local supermarket, pay half of each other’s bill at the checkout, is the price lower? Have we conquered inflation?  Yes according to the government. OK then let the neighbour and me pay each other’s bill in full then we will have major deflation will we not?

Really what kind of lunacy is this?

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, GregBowman said:

Gold accounts for about 3-4% of my wife and I's portfolio and has done very well thank you. So have the five limited run motorcycles I bought off plan as it were making over a year about £2k on each with no tax

A portfolio isn't restricted to something you can just see  on a screen

Not done nearly as well as the NASDAQ over the past 25 years though has it, and gold doesn't return a dividend either... rather it costs to store or you take the risk someone nabs it from you. 

I've just never heard a compelling reason to invest in it beyond "what if the world ends and you need gold coins at Tescos" sort of thing. I'm being dramatic of course. 

What motorbikes did you go for? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That's the establishments propaganda line.

Do you stop eating because it will be cheaper next month ?

Do you stop driving because it will be cheaper next month ?

Do you stop buying a new washing machine when yours breaks down because it will be cheaper next month ?

I get the distinct feeling that the rich/establishment are lying ******s

Who replaces stuff these days when it actually breaks? People tend to buy upgrades well ahead of that. I might be the exception amount my friends and family to that but everyone I know seems to trade up whenever they like. 

Despite what you state above you follow this rule (and encourage others) by deferring a house purchase since your expectation is that it will be lower in the future. 

One major issue with deflation is the rising real cost of labour in employment contracts.

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Giraffe said:

Inflation falls because of Help to Obese?... REALLY WTF! The price of the meals did not fall – half the bill was picked up by other or future taxpayers!
So if the neighbour and I go food shopping at the local supermarket, pay half of each other’s bill at the checkout, is the price lower? Have we conquered inflation?  Yes according to the government. OK then let the neighbour and me pay each other’s bill in full then we will have major deflation will we not?

Really what kind of lunacy is this?

Probably an issue with how things are counted. It is actually consumer prices i.e. what the consumer pays. If something is subsidised it does technically get cheaper for the consumer. By the same token the price of petrol is heavily taxed so a hike in fuel duties would be measured as an increase in prices for inflation. When the fossil fuel levy was abolished the ONS did treat that as a price change for inflation calculation for example. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, definitelynotanagent said:

Actually that is not as crazy as it seems - I like these kind of real world metrics. Who eats TVs?

Do you have any more products that you track?

I don't know what compound official CPI from 2014 to today is, but I bet it's not 45% :)

 

Soya milk was a quid a carton quite a few years ago, and it still is when they do a deal, otherwise more expensive but the deals are frequent and easy to find, and the supermarket brand stuff still well undercuts the more top end brands.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

"So deflation is a real concern"

 

Why is deflation a real concern, when inflation/QR/low IRs has made the rich richer.

Id say "inflation/QR/low IRs " are the real concern.

Obviously they pretend we are all in the same boat unless you are trying to go into their yacht club for a pint.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, winkie said:

Used to be the mars bar index......until shrinkage became rife, lots of inflation lost in shrinkage..... don't think we don't notice.;)

It wasn't, the big mac index was always the big mac index and was specifically for reviewing purchasing parity of varying currencies. It was introduced by the Economist as a laugh a while ago but actually turned out to be a pretty good indicator of the direct of travel of a currency pair. 

Shrinkage or Shrink-flation to which you refer is reviewed by the ONS and where practice package sizes are reviewed and a price per unit weight or volume is used. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Small print says its all down to Eat Out to Help Gout, reduced airfares 'cos no-one's flying and no hike in autumn clothes prices due to shops struggling.

food prices up,energy/petrol prices down, discretionary spending like clothing ,holidays and electrical goods shuffled from malls to online,so down there.

with respect to the latter i'd be expecing it to come back hard in the next months due to the supply chain problems...I've been having a look at stuff like graphics cards and they are definitely holding up/increasing in price.

holidays(international at least) still fooked,transport costs down(trains maybe 40% full for leisure,and most people work from home where possible)

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, winkie said:

Used to be the mars bar index......until shrinkage became rife, lots of inflation lost in shrinkage..... don't think we don't notice.;)

oh yes, shrinkflation as well, that's been going on years to fiddle the figures.

i think even perhaps going on with ready meals etc...the beef roast slices are miraculously the same amount,but cut thinner and you get more gravy and an extra spud to keep the weight the same!

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, oracle said:

oh yes, shrinkflation as well, that's been going on years to fiddle the figures.

i think even perhaps going on with ready meals etc...the beef roast slices are miraculously the same amount,but cut thinner and you get more gravy and an extra spud to keep the weight the same!

note i said not reduced in number...purely from a photogenic marketing standpoint it still looks like a wholesome meal that way on the packet(or advert),but the new recipe has the meat content now suitable for one of snow whites compatriots instead of an adult...all for the same price as before!!!..so no inflation.

Link to post
Share on other sites

it' s been a long standing trick with sandwich makers for quite a while..when they make them they put all the filling in the centre,so when they are sliced up diagonally it looks appetising and well loaded.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.