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House prices forecast to drop by 14% next year


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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/house-prices-forecast-to-drop-by-14-next-year-lbj77clv2

House prices will fall by almost 14 per cent next year once the government’s temporary cut in stamp duty ends and the economic impact of coronavirus filters through to the property market, according to an analysis by an economic consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research.

 

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1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

The magic printy printy machine will doubtless be deployed. Trees and Squid ink in at one end, inky paper out the other.

It's looking like the new normal central bank policy will be permitting higher inflation whilst maintaining zirp policies.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/13/feds-change-tack-could-mean-inflation-not-dead/

inflating away boomers wealth, and avoiding interest rate spikes. Also making a cliff fall nominal house price crash looking less likely, notwithstanding high unemployment.

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9 hours ago, petetong said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/house-prices-forecast-to-drop-by-14-next-year-lbj77clv2

House prices will fall by almost 14 per cent next year once the government’s temporary cut in stamp duty ends and the economic impact of coronavirus filters through to the property market, according to an analysis by an economic consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research.

 

14% is a very precise number, why not 10-15% or up to 20%

 

Setting the narrative ?

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They won't end the stamp duty holiday if this is looking likely by March, or if they do, they'll bring in something else. The government has made it perfectly clear since 2009 that protecting the housing market is their number one priority, and it doesn't matter what else they have to trash to keep it that way. That is why we folded and bought 3 years ago.

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6 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

The government has made it perfectly clear since 2009 that protecting the housing market is their number one priority, and it doesn't matter what else they have to trash to keep it that way.

..exactly the reason why the UK is lost.

Lost as a people because we care more about ripping each other off for overpriced houses than building communities.

Lost as a country as we obsess with 'services' to support HPI instead of trading with the world - no wonder we never had a UK tech giant.

Lost as a component of Western Society - we slammed the door on our European allies, and have no real partnership with the US.  The idea of AusCanNzUK is dead as soon as AusCanNz realise they can do without us.

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1 hour ago, mattyboy1973 said:

They won't end the stamp duty holiday if this is looking likely by March, or if they do, they'll bring in something else. The government has made it perfectly clear since 2009 that protecting the housing market is their number one priority, and it doesn't matter what else they have to trash to keep it that way. That is why we folded and bought 3 years ago.

With IRs at 0, jobs losses and prices at extreme levels when ( not if ) they throw more and more at it we'll be in real danger of a monetary crisis, i.e. £ worth nothing and we'll see huge IR spike as they try and save their own necks. 

The choice has been for a long while now...Collapse of the housing market or collapse of the £ AND the housing market.

They seem to have opted for the second option.  

The only way to win this is to move out of houses/cash/bonds and sit right.

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Ive trawled rightmoves sold prices for July for Edinburgh and a couple of surrounding towns, and good luck finding any properties that’s sold lower than any former purchase prices shown. Where two transactions appear, 95% represent a healthy rise.
 

When will prices fall!!!!!!!

 

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9 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

14% is a very precise number, why not 10-15% or up to 20%

Setting the narrative ?

14% will be interesting.

If ‘getting a bargain’ is the only driver then a 14% drop represents a huge fall for some. As prices fall my son will be looking and I will scaring motivated sellers asking how far they will keep falling and trying to factor in a 20/30% scare factor.  

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1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said:

Ive trawled rightmoves sold prices for July for Edinburgh and a couple of surrounding towns, and good luck finding any properties that’s sold lower than any former purchase prices shown. Where two transactions appear, 95% represent a healthy rise.
 

When will prices fall!!!!!!!

 

Asking prices up over 10pc YOY according to ESPC and I bet sale prices the same. Not what I expected a few months ago. "First home scheme" might have something to.do with it. Should be able to get a better deal in a few months I think but who knows, number of properties on market gradually increasing

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21 minutes ago, stilgar said:

Asking prices up over 10pc YOY according to ESPC and I bet sale prices the same. Not what I expected a few months ago. "First home scheme" might have something to.do with it. Should be able to get a better deal in a few months I think but who knows, number of properties on market gradually increasing

What daft buyer goes out in the sunshine and fights 5 other people and outbids then for a house during a mini boom. Oh, during a worldwide pandemic...you honestly couldn’t make it up. 

February is a lovely time to buy regardless of the market. 

Said it before but there has never ever been more clear signals that the market ‘might’ fall and that’s it’s worth hanging on at least a few months. 

The government might try keep things going....but the upside of buying today rather than waiting for winter just can’t be worth it. 

Never mind...they can crack on. 

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24 minutes ago, stilgar said:

Asking prices up over 10pc YOY according to ESPC and I bet sale prices the same. Not what I expected a few months ago. "First home scheme" might have something to.do with it. Should be able to get a better deal in a few months I think but who knows, number of properties on market gradually increasi

 

The 4 or 5 parties I know that are actively seeking to move this year are doing so for two main reasons - the assumption that home working will be integral to working life and the threat of further lockdowns. The 6th couple I know are selling up to buy the parents home because both of their jobs are precarious. 
 

Im in a similar position where while I fully expect prices to drop a little in Scotland, I’d buy a fixer upper and accept I’m possibly 10/15k out of pocket versus waiting a year.

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53 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

14% will be interesting.

If ‘getting a bargain’ is the only driver then a 14% drop represents a huge fall for some. As prices fall my son will be looking and I will scaring motivated sellers asking how far they will keep falling and trying to factor in a 20/30% scare factor.  

14% implies 30% in London to me.

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41 minutes ago, stilgar said:

Asking prices up over 10pc YOY according to ESPC and I bet sale prices the same. Not what I expected a few months ago. "First home scheme" might have something to.do with it. Should be able to get a better deal in a few months I think but who knows, number of properties on market gradually increasing

is that in Scotland ? 

UK Property Liom is showing current asking prices for Scotland is up 7% yoy and 8% from 1st jan, high but not 10%

No idea where that is coming from !!!

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9 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

What daft buyer goes out in the sunshine and fights 5 other people and outbids then for a house during a mini boom. Oh, during a worldwide pandemic...you honestly couldn’t make it up.

Some people put their families or personal well-being ahead of house prices. 
 

Every single day we make decisions about our finances... big and small... I don’t think you can judge people without knowing their personal circumstances.

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34 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

What daft buyer goes out in the sunshine and fights 5 other people and outbids then for a house during a mini boom. Oh, during a worldwide pandemic...you honestly couldn’t make it up. 

February is a lovely time to buy regardless of the market. 

Said it before but there has never ever been more clear signals that the market ‘might’ fall and that’s it’s worth hanging on at least a few months. 

The government might try keep things going....but the upside of buying today rather than waiting for winter just can’t be worth it. 

Never mind...they can crack on. 

Which is a politer way of putting what a couple of forum members said to me back in May of this year re: my stupidity at buying now. Near identical house opposite just sold for 100k more than what we paid for ours. How far up we'll be by March next year is anyone's guess, but you keep hanging on...

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24 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

is that in Scotland ? 

UK Property Liom is showing current asking prices for Scotland is up 7% yoy and 8% from 1st jan, high but not 10%

No idea where that is coming from !!!

Does propertylion scan ESPC or just Rightmove? If not ESPC, it’s unlikely to be accurate. 

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2 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Which is a politer way of putting what a couple of forum members said to me back in May of this year re: my stupidity at buying now. Near identical house opposite just sold for 100k more than what we paid for ours. How far up we'll be by March next year is anyone's guess, but you keep hanging on...

Struggling to work the sums on this. Your house has increased by £100k in 4 months?!?

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32 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

is that in Scotland ? 

UK Property Liom is showing current asking prices for Scotland is up 7% yoy and 8% from 1st jan, high but not 10%

No idea where that is coming from !!!

Just city of Edinburgh

 

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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