Mortgage rates shooing up

[Martin_JD]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

It's an internet forum! An exchange of subjective opinion, for the most part, like every other internet forum. No-one's here in an editorial role. Extravagant and fantastic claims sit cheek by jowl with the sober and mundane.

Your contention that HPC has been consistently wrong for 17 years is obvious trolling. The UK experienced a significant house price correction in the aftermath of the GFC. No mainstream economist forecast this outcome.

 

The phrase "even a broken clock is right twice a day" springs to mind when I look at that graph.  

[maffo in oxford]

1 hour ago, Martin_JD said:

Very well put, and an accurate analysis.  I think this narrative that house buyers are "sheeple", morons and "debt junkies" is just bitterness from those who have missed the boat.

That may be true for a few here, but an awful lot of people who bought houses etc haven't gained from what I'd refer to as ‘‘sound fundamentals’’ regarding the economy or the housing market either.

All we've had in the UK is ever more elaborate schemes, of which not many of the bullish persuasion so-to-speak predicted to any real degree of accuracy, but more along the lines of a generic ‘‘they won't let houses crash’’ type of opinion.

Edited September 13, 2020 by maffo in oxford

[captainb]

1 hour ago, maffo in oxford said:

That may be true for a few here, but an awful lot of people who bought houses etc haven't gained from what I'd refer to as ‘‘sound fundamentals’’ regarding the economy or the housing market either.

All we've had in the UK is ever more elaborate schemes, of which not many of the bullish persuasion so-to-speak predicted to any real degree of accuracy, but more along the lines of a generic ‘‘they won't let houses crash’’ type of opinion.

Is that not a fundamental part of this market to consider when weighing a purchase?.... 

Govnt support for housing isn't new. 

Right or wrong diffident question. But was anyone really surprised rishi did something when it looked shaky... Stamp duty holiday came out of the tombola this time. Interest rate cut! Longer mortgages! Print money! Negative rates! Etc are all balls in there 

Edited September 13, 2020 by captainb

[fatspanner]

4 minutes ago, captainb said:

Is that not a fundamental part of this market to consider when weighing a purchase?.... 

Govnt support for housing isn't new. 

Agree. It's definitely something to consider in normal times. However at this point in time you would be crazy to pull the trigger on a purchase. Every way you turn someone is asking for some help or support from the government. Housing has had its turn with the stamp duty cut.

I'm looking to purchase. If I get it wrong HPs may nudge up a couple of percent.

However if things head south even just 10% I've made the right decision. 

The next few months will be very telling. 

 

 

[captainb]

14 minutes ago, fatspanner said:

Agree. It's definitely something to consider in normal times. However at this point in time you would be crazy to pull the trigger on a purchase. Every way you turn someone is asking for some help or support from the government. Housing has had its turn with the stamp duty cut.

I'm looking to purchase. If I get it wrong HPs may nudge up a couple of percent.

However if things head south even just 10% I've made the right decision. 

The next few months will be very telling. 

 

 

Agreed. 

10% makes sense, 15% well you never know.. 

Issue is when you start expecting cataclysmic collapses of 50% etc you miss the opportunity if they do fall say even 15%.

 

[Martin_JD]

48 minutes ago, fatspanner said:

Agree. It's definitely something to consider in normal times. However at this point in time you would be crazy to pull the trigger on a purchase. Every way you turn someone is asking for some help or support from the government. Housing has had its turn with the stamp duty cut.

I'm looking to purchase. If I get it wrong HPs may nudge up a couple of percent.

However if things head south even just 10% I've made the right decision. 

The next few months will be very telling. 

 

 

I'm going a head with a purchase right now, call me crazy, perhaps i am and we shall see, but it's the right house for us, in the right location, at the right price.  

[Martin_JD]

2 hours ago, maffo in oxford said:

That may be true for a few here, but an awful lot of people who bought houses etc haven't gained from what I'd refer to as ‘‘sound fundamentals’’ regarding the economy or the housing market either.

 

Oh sure, our house grew in equity since we bought it in 2013. Now it's sold we've not been able to use that to by a more expensive place, but i don't claim to have made this gain through any insight of my own.

Edited September 13, 2020 by Martin_JD

[househunter123]

8 minutes ago, Martin_JD said:

I'm going a head with a purchase right now, call me crazy, perhaps i am and we shall see, but it's the right house for us, in the right location, at the right price.  

If it ticks those important boxes, and it's within what you can afford , why wait ?

 

I'm also actively looking and have put offers on different properties recently, at around 5% below asking but never had any accepted.  

[blackhole]

13 minutes ago, Martin_JD said:

I'm going a head with a purchase right now, call me crazy, perhaps i am and we shall see, but it's the right house for us, in the right location, at the right price.  

As I like to remind everyone on this forum, you're one of the lucky ones, whilst a generation and possibly two priced out as things stand ... and there lies the fundamental issue.   Easy to get swept away in your own world, though.

[zugzwang]

4 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

The phrase "even a broken clock is right twice a day" springs to mind when I look at that graph.  

Twice is correct. We had a house price crash a decade ago. Now, thanks to Brexit and Covid-19, it looks like a second is in the offing

Friends of mine who bought in 2011 timed the market beautifully but have enjoyed very little capital appreciation since, despite the extraordinary price ramping efforts of a succession of Tory govts, all financed with public money.

There's still time for the rest of us to catch up.

 

[Pmax2020]

After saying all year prices would fall 5 - 10% in Scotland we bid 15% over the home report valuation on a 250k house and still didn’t get it!!! It was a period home in an area we may well have to wait 2 years on another shot at.

You just have to do what’s right for you and/or your family. I think prices will fall but I also think the market could be very stagnant so I fear the older houses we like may remain pricey as they will become even rarer. 
 

The house we bid on was priced low, but supposing we got it and another similar one was to sell for 30k less the following year then I could of lived with that. 
 

There’s more to life than house prices and we make financial decisions every day of our lives. 

[Martin_JD]

4 hours ago, blackhole said:

As I like to remind everyone on this forum, you're one of the lucky ones, whilst a generation and possibly two priced out as things stand ... and there lies the fundamental issue.   Easy to get swept away in your own world, though.

Oh I agree, i'm very lucky and the housing market is fundamentally broken in the UK.

[winkie]

18 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

Very well put, and an accurate analysis.  I think this narrative that house buyers are "sheeple", morons and "debt junkies" is just bitterness from those who have missed the boat.

....another boat always comes along soon enough....... right or wrong times change depending on various different circumstances, circumstances are quick to change, come and go like boats.

[richmondtw]

On 9/9/2020 at 6:18 PM, Wayward said:

On 9/9/2020 at 10:28 AM, richmondtw said:

So anyone who owns a house is one of the Giovt privileged cohort?  They have never worked to buy a house? My electrician who has been working at my house who has worked 6/7 days a week for a couple years to buy a house for him and his family is privileged ? 

I will let him know I am sure he will laugh his socks off.  

 

Expand  

Yes, they are showered with privileges.

LOL

I am so pleased that my electrician has been showered with the privilege of working 6-7 days a week for the last 2 years to be able to buy a home for himself and his wife and kid. That privilege is open to anyone who wants to take advantage of it. 

I and she who is in charge are also very privileged to have been able to buy my own house by  working.  I have not used  H2B by the way.  

[richmondtw]

On 9/13/2020 at 11:33 AM, zugzwang said:

2012 was the bottom of the market. Before Osborne got to work with Help to Buy etc.

I think 2011 may have been the bottom I think it had started to move a tad by 2012 - not 100% sure of that though.

[richmondtw]

23 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

Very well put, and an accurate analysis.  I think this narrative that house buyers are "sheeple", morons and "debt junkies" is just bitterness from those who have missed the boat.

Sad to say I think there is much truth in what you say.  There are people who thought they were great financial wizards who could have bought after 2008 but did not thinking that prices would go down further and laughing at those who did buy.  These are the same people who critisise others for buying a home that has gone up in value!

On 9/13/2020 at 12:19 PM, zugzwang said:

Your contention that HPC has been consistently wrong for 17 years is obvious trolling.

Why?  I would imagine that anyone who bought 17 years ago would have seen an increase in the value of their property.  Not hat it natters to me.  More importantly even of they had not overpaid on a mortgage they would have 8 years to go before the loan was paid off.  

[zugzwang]

22 hours ago, richmondtw said:

Sad to say I think there is much truth in what you say.  There are people who thought they were great financial wizards who could have bought after 2008 but did not thinking that prices would go down further and laughing at those who did buy.  These are the same people who critisise others for buying a home that has gone up in value!

Why?  I would imagine that anyone who bought 17 years ago would have seen an increase in the value of their property.  Not hat it natters to me.  More importantly even of they had not overpaid on a mortgage they would have 8 years to go before the loan was paid off.  

The optimal time to buy outside London/SE was 2011-12. I do regret not pulling the trigger then.

Prices have certainly gone up in the interim but not as much as you'd imagine out here in the sticks. If we get nominal falls of 15-20% next year we'll be pretty much back to level pegging. Can't see much more downside than that, sadly. Not with the immigration numbers running as hot as they are.

Come what may, however, I intend to buy in the next twelve months. Sometimes you just have to eat your losses and get on with life.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

https://www.yourmoney.com/mortgages/two-year-fixed-rates-see-steepest-rise-in-a-decade/

 

First Time Buyer

 

Two-year fixed rates see steepest rise in a decade

Two-year fixed-rates have seen the steepest monthly rise in more than a decade while mortgage product fees increased for the fourth month in a row, analysis by Moneyfacts revealed.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Weird article from the express

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1335690/mortgage-deal-repayments-bank-of-england-decision

Mortgage deals and repayments to be affected by this week’s BoE rate decision - get ready

 

Doesn't say up or down tho...

 

On September 17, the UK’s central bank will release their latest base rate decision and while it has been kept unprecedentedly low for a number of years now, the bank may increase rates or even move them into negative territory.

 

Talk abotu hedging their bets.

 

Given the last 12 years of lunacy I'd say rates will be held  

[Timm]

9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

https://www.yourmoney.com/mortgages/two-year-fixed-rates-see-steepest-rise-in-a-decade/

 

First Time Buyer

 

Two-year fixed rates see steepest rise in a decade

Two-year fixed-rates have seen the steepest monthly rise in more than a decade while mortgage product fees increased for the fourth month in a row, analysis by Moneyfacts revealed.

Gosh.

"Meanwhile five-year fixed rates have risen by 0.15% to 2.49%"

That's the same as our 10 year fix!

[Timm]

22 hours ago, zugzwang said:

The optimal time to buy outside London/SE was 2011-12.

(...)

Round here (Oxon), the bottom was winter 2009, but shitholes continued to fall until 2011.

I know, because we bought pretty much the last shithole in the area to sell at a distressed price. It didn't even have a front door.

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by Timm

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 minutes ago, Timm said:

Gosh.

"Meanwhile five-year fixed rates have risen by 0.15% to 2.49%"

That's the same as our 10 year fix!

Imagine now, if you can, someone coming off a 2 year fixed at 0.15% today, someone who bought their house based on the 0.15% interest rate, someone now on furlough, or perhaps lost their job recently.

Imagine that.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, Timm said:

Round here (Oxon), the bottom was winter 2009, but shitholes continued to fall until 2011.

I know, because we bought pretty much the last shithole in the area to sell at a distressed price. It didn't even have a front door.

 

Couldn't find a house post 2009 that wasn't asking 2007 prices ( which we know were insane ) or that EAs hadn't sold off to their developer mates

[Timm]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Couldn't find a house post 2009 that wasn't asking 2007 prices ( which we know were insane ) or that EAs hadn't sold off to their developer mates

Fortunately, we were too poor to compete with developers. 

The house we bought didn't have the uplift potential to make it worth their while (time).

[TheCountOfNowhere]

27 minutes ago, Timm said:

Fortunately, we were too poor to compete with developers. 

The house we bought didn't have the uplift potential to make it worth their while (time).

Not sure if that's lucky or not

 

UK housing market is rotten.