Property Lion: Sept current asking price index

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Hi.

We ran an interim current asking price index for August.

 

Here's what we found:

 

Current asking prices up 2.1% on July Current asking prices now £400 BELOW the 2018 asking price peak.

BIG NEWS THO #LONDON current asking prices now down -4.51% from July. Listings up

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just running last months again to compare against that. London housing bubble clearly collapsing quickly though, that is clear. current asking prices lowest we've seen and supply at highest.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

London supply up 18% in 2 months.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

East of England

South East of England

South West of England

down on July figure with supply up.

Everywhere else, price up, supply down.

 

Looks like South England is going

Edited September 4, 2020 by TheCountOfNowhere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Oddly, all the regions with price rises see a big cut in number of listings.

 

[Drifty]

Do you take any requests? I would like to know about Milton Keynes because it seems like it's in a magical bubble.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Gets better....London house prices down 6% on April, listings up...38% !!!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, Drifty said:

Do you take any requests? I would like to know about Milton Keynes because it seems like it's in a magical bubble.

I'll add in the #MiltonKeynes hash tag if its not already there. 

 

You can look under #UKPLEastMidlands #UKPLEastEngland etc for regional info.

[Drifty]

3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'll add in the #MiltonKeynes hash tag if its not already there. 

 

You can look under #UKPLEastMidlands #UKPLEastEngland etc for regional info.

Thank you.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, Drifty said:

Thank you.

You've found a bug.  thanks.

The milton keynes stuff is under #Milton, have a look

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23milton&src=typed_query

[Si1]

Don't get too excited bears, over the short term this can be just noise, and you don't know what govt/Boe will do either.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 minutes ago, Drifty said:

Thank you.

I've put a fix in for that.  Hopefully you'll see #MiltonKeynes turn up now. Let me know if it doesn't work

[TheCountOfNowhere]

8 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Don't get too excited bears, over the short term this can be just noise, and you don't know what govt/Boe will do either.

I agree.  We only have 12 months of region data now and just over 2 years of full data.

Asking prices still below the all time high from 2 years ago now though, due to London and the SE.

The stamp duty change will have little effect on London due to the insane prices but it does look like idiots in the shires are rushing to buy for silly money, maybe fuelled by anyone lucky enough to escape with the magic money in hand

Worth pointing out this is over the summer peak months.

Edited September 4, 2020 by TheCountOfNowhere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Here's the information compared to 05/Aug's interim current asking price index:

 

Current asking prices up 0.26 MoM

 

Number of listings up 1.9% mom

 

London current asking price down -2.78% mom

 

South West of england down -1.73% mom.

 

West Mids up on July but now down mom -0.53%

Looks like most of the daft asking price rises coincided with

@RishiSunak's insane policy of cutting stamp duty during a house price bubble/#HousingCrisis

 

Now petering out, except oddly in the wealth part of the UK known as Scotland and Wales, up 3% and 2% mom.

 

I expect most areas in england to asking price falls now.  London could see 20% down YoY when/if TSHTF

[Voice of Doom]

Thanks, Count. Good to see the London falls.

[Doner Kebab]

Cheers Count. Good work

[adarmo]

Interesting analysis. 

[HovelinHove]

London is going over a cliff and there is no coming back. COVID job losses there are huge, and going to get catastrophic once Furlough is wound down. I see huge numbers of Eastern European’s and others having no choice but to leg it back to their countries where things are cheaper. Then we have permanent shift to WFH for many jobs in the city. Even if they become 50:50 WFH, which is more realistic long term, this will have a catastrophic impact on jobs in London. Then you have the cladding crisis affecting thousands of flats in London. You have Brexit looming. White flight since the BLM protests is very real too. I think 20% by February is very realistic.

This will have a huge knock on effect in the South East. Some Londoners have been lucky and managed to sell up and make enough profit to buy in the Home Counties or beyond, but that will not last. With prices cratering in London, unless they had huge amounts of equity or cash, they will not be able to sell for enough to raise a deposit for their dream country house. I think we have one more month or price rises in the Home Counties, then some very steep drops, wiping out all the gains from the mini boom, and then a whole load more.

The fact that many VIs are saying this too is reassuring. Hold tight, don’t budge, then buy next year.

[househunter123]

London only? What are people's thoughts on other regions such as the Midlands and further north?

 

Will there be a knock on affect? Or London expected to face the worst of it and others areas relatively unscathed?

[satsuma]

Honestly I believe there is a high chance of falls everywhere with the exception of high end areas and sought after locations.  That said there is a high probability of grants for first time buyers to keep things going so who knows.  On balance I can’t see how this market can be held up and I wish they would stop wasting money on it.  

[HovelinHove]

43 minutes ago, househunter123 said:

London only? What are people's thoughts on other regions such as the Midlands and further north?

 

Will there be a knock on affect? Or London expected to face the worst of it and others areas relatively unscathed?

London always leads the way down. Money historically moves out of London to other areas, and this has been amplified in recent months, but once the money source...London...dries up, every where else will follow. Happens in every crash. London is probably already in full crash mode now, elsewhere end of this year early next. One more month of rises I reckon, then everywhere in the South will start dropping as well, then further north next year.

[simon2]

Next month could be interesting. 

The stats are helpful. London flats at the starter end increased by £100k or more in a space of 1-2 years, usually they were £250k for the stamp duty limit. No reason to think that this could happen but in reverse. At the moment many ingredients are in place, the only thing lacking is interest rate rises.

The mainstream media stats conceal this. On the way up, the massive rises were tempered by other parts of the country stagnating. On the way down, the massive falls are going to be tempered by other parts of the country doing better. And this is before the indexes are adjusted anyway.

I think London will fare worse than anywhere else, but nobody is gonna want to report it. Even now, you see very little stories about how terrible an investment HTB has been for some. Anyone buying when the scheme first came out is probably alright (as they caught some capital gains), anyone buying in 2016 has the payment kicking in next year, and probably has had their deposit wiped out due to the falls. If they haven't saved anything in that time, where are they going to go?

[satsuma]

250k for a starter flat is about the max they should be

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 hours ago, satsuma said:

25k for a starter flat is about the max they should be

Fixed