Is a World War The Answer?

[Bob8]

7 hours ago, A.steve said:

I feel as if 'conspiracy theories' are an exotic sauce in which we frolick while exercising our talent for rational thinking.  I find it intriguing (when 'conspiracy theory' is pronounced disparagingly) that so many people appear to have convinced themselves that conspiracy (as defined in the dictionary) would never occur... making any theory about it necessarily false.

I really like what you wrote here, you wrote far better than I could.

They are a result of questioning. Those who accept evolution do not really understand it.

I personally think the best thing is to understand how much you take on trust (pretty much everything, we rarely examine the cash for forgeries, question that currency will be accepted as having value, that Paraguay is real). We are told things that are not true as teachers have a vague understanding and have to express something to kids, and the most expert people have limits to their knowledge, and we simply do not have the time and capacity to get to the bottom of everything, people who were there will have vested interests and perspective.

That means we can accept information on a reasonable basis, and know that everything is rather messy. It means we can be over naivity that CTer are quite right that many people really do display, but not think our internet research has the real truth.

[qejunkie]

On 03/09/2020 at 16:45, Social Justice League said:

I've been thinking about this today and am coming to the conclusion that Russia is itching for conflict and if we get another Trump government then I think it might well happen.

No they aren’t. Next. 

[qejunkie]

On 04/09/2020 at 08:26, Locke said:

You have been demoralised.

• Alexei Navalny has never held any elected office, his political party doesn’t have a single MP in the Duma, and he polls at roughly 2% support with the Russian people.

• Despite this, and in the middle of an alleged “pandemic”, Vladimir Putin deems the man a threat and orders him killed.

• The State apparatus responsible for unnecessary and seemingly arbitrary acts of political murder decide to use novichok to poison him.

• This decision is taken in spite of the facts that a) Novichok totally and utterly failed to work in their alleged murder of the Skripals and b) It has already been widely publicly associated with Russia.

• Rather unsurprisingly, the novichok which didn’t kill its alleged target last time, doesn’t kill its alleged target this time either.

• Compounding their poor decision making, the Russians not only perform an emergency landing and take Navalny straight to a hospital for medical care.

• Despite Navalny being helpless and comatose in a Russian hospital, the powerful state-backed assassination team make no further attempts on his life.

• In fact, seemingly determined to under no circumstances successfully kill their intended victim, the Russian government, allow him to leave the country and get medical help from one of the countries which previously accused them of using novichok.

• To absolutely no one’s surprise, the Germans claim to have detected novichok in Navalny’s system.

• Vladimir Putin and the Russian government are immediately blamed for the attempted murder.

There's a black mirror episode on this one.

+1 - yes the mainstream narrative is BS

[qejunkie]

On 04/09/2020 at 18:40, Arpeggio said:

They didn't need to nuke Japan, they were on the back foot already. They just wanted to try out nukes.

 

Revisionism.

[A.steve]

2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

Those who accept evolution do not really understand it.

I think those who accept evolution as "the answer" are (probably) asking the wrong questions. (c.f. those who profess to "understand" quantum theory.)

I definitely got that impression when I sat in the audience at a Richard Dawkins lecture.

2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

I personally think the best thing is to understand how much you take on trust

"Trust" - I think - is a key concept.  Trust is the opposite side of the same coin as "control".  Trust also has an unusual failure mode... I don't think trust erodes - slowly deteriorating... I think trust builds slowly, but when it fails... it does so with a catastrophic 'snap!'.

2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

That means we can accept information on a reasonable basis, and know that everything is rather messy.

I am exceptionally interested in what you phrase as a "reasonable basis".  It is far from obvious, to me, what a sensible mechanism might involve.  One principle that seems beneficial is deferring judgement... the down-side, of course, is that deferring simplifications of your model of the world increases cognitive load - and, hence, likely impairs your sense-making ability.  This reminds me of the perennial 'war' between the empiricists and the rationalists.  Perhaps, in today's world - with ubiquitous global communication - the debate between these positions is more relevant than ever?

 

 

Edited September 6, 2020 by A.steve
Trust

[Gbob]

If anyone wants to watch a film about nuclear war and its aftermath watch 'Threads'. Actually, don't. It is the single most depressing, bleak and soul destroying film I've ever watched. I've never known any movie to be so without hope, usually there is some element of positivity at the end, or a hint that a new world can start again. But with this one. Nothing.

 

[Bob8]

1 hour ago, A.steve said:

I think those who accept evolution as "the answer" are (probably) asking the wrong questions. (c.f. those who profess to "understand" quantum theory.)

I definitely got that impression when I sat in the audience at a Richard Dawkins lecture.

"Trust" - I think - is a key concept.  Trust is the opposite side of the same coin as "control".  Trust also has an unusual failure mode... I don't think trust erodes - slowly deteriorating... I think trust builds slowly, but when it fails... it does so with a catastrophic 'snap!'.

I am exceptionally interested in what you phrase as a "reasonable basis".  It is far from obvious, to me, what a sensible mechanism might involve.  One principle that seems beneficial is deferring judgement... the down-side, of course, is that deferring simplifications of your model of the world increases cognitive load - and, hence, likely impairs your sense-making ability.  This reminds me of the perennial 'war' between the empiricists and the rationalists.  Perhaps, in today's world - with ubiquitous global communication - the debate between these positions is more relevant than ever.

A pleasure to meet you, Sir! Really.

I should specify that my scientific training is in molecular and microbiology. While I know longer work in scientific research, I did. I do not doubt evolution. I have also encountered a few people who would tell this PhD scientific researcher that he was wrong about his field as it did not agree with wht they were taught at school when they were fourteen. Such people are not being smarter than creationists; they both placed trust in whoever had teh most feeling of authority to them and then believed this emotional decision was rational.

And, I can only applaud your last paragraph. It is like the balance between left and right, realistically the left are right than our destiny is formed by chance, society and circumstance, but we must put our faith in the position of the right and take personal responsibility.

[MarkG]

15 hours ago, Glenn said:

If anyone wants to watch a film about nuclear war and its aftermath watch 'Threads'. Actually, don't. It is the single most depressing, bleak and soul destroying film I've ever watched.

It's worth noting that Threads was based on a government war plan, which were notorious for being unrealistic, because a realistic plan based on real Soviet capabilities put pretty much the whole of the inhabited UK in the blast zone of at least one nuke and many places in the blast zones of multiple nukes.. and there was little point in bothering with a planning exercise where almost everyone died in the first few hours.

Back on topic, yes, we're probably heading into a world war. The globalists were determined to pick up their toys and move to China, but Xi won't let them. So now they want war to force Xi out of power.

As to Putin attacking the US, that's laughable. He has no reason to want an overt war when he can just send a few bucks to Antifa to burn cities down.

Edited September 7, 2020 by MarkG

[MarkG]

On 04/09/2020 at 05:22, Megadebt said:

Trump is the worst President to have a finger on the nuclear button now. Like his twitter rages, his impulsiveness is potentially dangerous.  If he wakes up one day with a bad head and decides to take out Moscow, once he gives that order no one can countermand him. I wonder at what level the military would overrule any surprise nuclear strike order from Trump?

Trump is, I believe, the only President not to start a war in the last forty years. He's shutting down wars all over the world, which is why the military-industrial complex hate him and want him out.

Biden, on the other hand, is a senile old fart who's voted for just about every war of the last fifty years.

[Locke]

On 04/09/2020 at 15:40, A.steve said:

Is it a conspiracy theory to take the view that conspiracy theories represent a very effective mechanism to undermine an emerging consensus that contradicts the narrative of the establishment?

By the colloquial definition- yes, lol.

None of the West's narrative on Navalny makes any sense and none of the narrative on the Skripals (where are they btw?) makes any sense. You would have to be incredibly naive to just accept these things which are just dismissed without even a blush.

Doesn't this

On 04/09/2020 at 17:51, Staffsknot said:

Why Novichok - weapon sends a message to West, I act with impunity. Double effect is it sets Western nations a trap - act and you are acting on an internal matter ( less consensus for acting and can say to Russian people they are trying to remove me to take over), do nothing or the inevitable fudge after headless chicken meetings and show divisions.

Sound an awful lot like a conspiracy theory?

I thought Novichock was meant to be an utterly lethal Russian developed nerve agent made of pure evillium? How has it only managed to kill one strung out heroin addict who sprayed it all over herself and then only after 3 days?

[Locke]

3 hours ago, MarkG said:

Biden, on the other hand, is a senile old fart who's voted for just about every war of the last fifty years.

Vote Biden, get Kamala.

[Locke]

On 06/09/2020 at 06:38, Bob8 said:

Those who accept evolution do not really understand it.

I'm interested. What about it do they not understand? The fundamental theory or some particular aspect? Would you care to explain it?

 

Evolution has a hallowed place for McLeftists, because it is a particularly strong foil against creationism, which made it easier to break Christianity. They don't actually know or even care whether it is true.

[Bob8]

37 minutes ago, Locke said:

I'm interested. What about it do they not understand? The fundamental theory or some particular aspect? Would you care to explain it?

Evolution has a hallowed place for McLeftists, because it is a particularly strong foil against creationism, which made it easier to break Christianity. They don't actually know or even care whether it is true.

I should have said, the large majority who accept it do not understand it in any depth.

There is no reason why they should. It does not make it true. I use it as an example as I have researched (as in properly, in a lab, as a profession) in the field. Creationists are wrong, but that is because they are trusting a group of people who happen to be wrong.

I am Catholic, which means the creation story is held to be as a spirtual story with profound thruths rather than a Just-So story, as a British Catholic too, I would be expected to beleive in evolution. And I do.

[Megadebt]

On 05/09/2020 at 08:12, oracle said:

drones are quite easy to jam,so frankly would not be of much use against a high level opponent.

 

if it was going to be a fight with russia/china then we would see some of the really big toys come out.

1) accoustic radar, the stuff that doesn't bounce off an object but makes it resonate and cause metal/material fatigue in the fuselage or wings of planes and missiles,making them useless and break up...like the bird who can scream at glass and make it shatter.

1a) torsion "tractor/deflector beams"..which can capture a target and fling it elsewhere

2)"mindstamper" sonic weapons that can project voices into the opponents heads,turning them paranoid schizoid and cause madness/firendly fire incidents amongst their own ranks

3) anti gravity aircraft /ordnance carrier (US Has these already)..can go much faster than a naval carrier,faster than a c130 and carries much greater payload,capable of VTOL

4)scalar weapons(russia has these already), beamed into tectonic "areas of interest" in order to provoke seismic activity

5)tesla walls (US and isreal working on it), aimed to prevent mass assault by missiles like hamas is planning, the successor to iron dome is aimed at providing a shield to protect and deactivate such projectiles,even nuclear tipped

6)   Hypersonic missiles:  Russia has hypersonic capability already, and boast above mach 20 in development.   Currently no effective defence against these and could make aircraft carriers, like heavy battle tanks obsolete soon. 

 Incoming at mach 10 is two miles a second,  probably fired in a salvo with several decoys.   Like Hitler's obsession with heavy tanks, Trump's Aircraft carriers will be of limited use .

https://www.defenceiq.com/defence-technology/articles/hypersonic-missiles-what-are-they-and-can-they-be-stopped

 

 There is too much of a Russian connection cropping up everywhere now, I believe they have played the long game here for decades and now have many agents installed in prominent positions already. 

 Huge amounts of dirty money from the fallout of the USSR invested around the world with no questions asked. Cheaper to buy a new USA President then a next generation fighter jet.    Another reason to do occasional high profile 'wet jobs'  "мокрое дело"  is for Putin to remind his opponents that his grip is firm and reach is far. 

[hp72]

1 hour ago, Locke said:

By the colloquial definition- yes, lol.

None of the West's narrative on Navalny makes any sense and none of the narrative on the Skripals (where are they btw?) makes any sense. You would have to be incredibly naive to just accept these things which are just dismissed without even a blush.

Doesn't this

Sound an awful lot like a conspiracy theory?

I thought Novichock was meant to be an utterly lethal Russian developed nerve agent made of pure evillium? How has it only managed to kill one strung out heroin addict who sprayed it all over herself and then only after 3 days?

Hmm. Define Conspiracy theory?

Chap below proposes that for some (9/11 or Alexander Litvinenko ) any "conclusion" is a conspiracy. "ZugZwang"? 

Interesting TEDx Talk from 2014 by a chap with a PHD in the subject

 

 

[Staffsknot]

47 minutes ago, Locke said:

Sound an awful lot like a conspiracy theory

Nope sounds like someone who understands the Russian system to me. I speak and read Russian.

Timing - US election so Biden has to say what he would have done, without being able to do anything. Yet once election is over it will be yesterday's news.

Trump wont do anything because he's so vain he'd have to admit to being wrong on Russia before.

So it leaves Europe - UK has too many issues, Germany and Europe are heading to Winter so gas dependency issues + lots of other things to sort.

Merkel is the only Euro leader Putin has any time for. She speaks Russian, is not a career politician and is pragmatic enough to take unpopular decisions.

When the Russians wanted to deny an airport to peacekeepers in Balkans they raced to it with UN markings hastily painted on. Why? US carrys out the threat to stop them it is an even bigger international incident, US backs down and a small Russian column just made all the Western forces look powerless, while denying easy movement to them. When they granted access to West later they could observe everything done.

It was blatantly provocative, plainly for no purpose but to hinder Western forces but it could be denied, made West look weak and at a time when people were questioning the fall of another Russian ally it played well to the home crowd.

A conspiracy theory is the West or anyone else trying to frame Russia. It is so glorious for the Russians to actually watch how easily people run off to any other conclusion, simply because they are skeptical of their own. Putin actually invaded Crimea and folks were shouting - its because NATO expanded!

 

[Locke]

14 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Merkel [...] is not a career politician

Jesus Christ.

[Locke]

19 minutes ago, hp72 said:

Define Conspiracy theory?

Well that is it. It is entirely subjective.

I'm happy to say "I don't know" when I don't.

The narratives crafted by Western government do not add up. That doesn't mean I think that there are particular plots. Maybe the Russians did do all these things. If they did, then they are either utterly incompetent, or such wily schemers that even trying to resist their influence is going to be utterly futile.

Maybe that's what Putin wants?

 

The scary part is that these fcukers (the ones peddling Russophobia) are the same ones who almost took us to global thermonuclear war.

[Warlord]

5 hours ago, MarkG said:

Trump is, I believe, the only President not to start a war in the last forty years. He's shutting down wars all over the world, which is why the military-industrial complex hate him and want him out.

Biden, on the other hand, is a senile old fart who's voted for just about every war of the last fifty years.

This is so true. Trump has NOT started a war of conflict and is the 1st U.S president in my  life time not to. He is showing you can keep America safe without going round the world blowing stuff up  and destabilising countries.

I hope he prevails in his election.  

[Locke]

To put MUH RUSSIA into perspective- 

The LD50 of Novichok (which, by the way, is a name assigned by Western "intelligence" agencies) is 0.22 micrograms/kg. 

For an 80kg man, a 1.8 millionths of a gram dose would give him a 50/50 chance of death. A grain of sand weighs 4 thousandths of a gram.

Take a grain of sand, break it into 2000 pieces. That is your LD50 of Novichok.

 Now halve it again to give the guy a reasonable chance of life. That is the dose that these retards think master evil genius Putin managed to get into Navalny.

 

It would take a real spastic to believe that you could covertly accurately dose someone with enough Novichok that they didn't die, but enough that it remained detectable hours later.

[scottbeard]

On 05/09/2020 at 10:44, nightowl said:

The thought of invasions of enemy drones makes me think of how the nation could defend itself....

All amateur drone and model airplane enthusiasts called up to harras incoming drones. It will be like the battle of Britain again but with 1/100th scale concordes and spitfires.

People defending their homes with some strawberry netting and four helium balloon with happy birthday tied to the corners, to trap overflying drones.

Ok I have too much coffee this morning😲

Maybe General Jumbo from the 1950s Beano comic will end up saving Britain?

(For those who don't know - he was a 12 year old boy with a giant army of radio controlled military stuff)

[Staffsknot]

4 hours ago, Locke said:

Jesus Christ.

Wasn't her aim, she was a scientist and up until the 89 revolution she was happy as a research scientist in the east. But you know facts & all.

[Locke]

58 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Wasn't her aim, she was a scientist and up until the 89 revolution she was happy as a research scientist in the east. But you know facts & all.

first we had accidental landlords, now we have accidental politicians

[thecrashingisles]

40 minutes ago, Locke said:

first we had accidental landlords, now we have accidental politicians

She didn't spend her 20s plotting her route to becoming Chancellor of Germany.

[thecrashingisles]

6 hours ago, Locke said:

To put MUH RUSSIA into perspective- 

The LD50 of Novichok (which, by the way, is a name assigned by Western "intelligence" agencies) is 0.22 micrograms/kg. 

For an 80kg man, a 1.8 millionths of a gram dose would give him a 50/50 chance of death. A grain of sand weighs 4 thousandths of a gram.

Take a grain of sand, break it into 2000 pieces. That is your LD50 of Novichok.

 Now halve it again to give the guy a reasonable chance of life. That is the dose that these retards think master evil genius Putin managed to get into Navalny.

 

It would take a real spastic to believe that you could covertly accurately dose someone with enough Novichok that they didn't die, but enough that it remained detectable hours later.

Do you also have to be a "real spastic" not to know that doses smaller than that are commonly sold in tablet form?

https://www.boots.com/boots-vitamin-d-90-tablets-10145801

Edited September 7, 2020 by thecrashingisles