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House Price Indices Wed Sep 2nd


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1 hour ago, Postman said:

No surprise. Bulltrap

If people aren't buying for the long term they are bonkers, and most people believe they are buying for the long term.

Can't wait for autumn, January, March, June. The government can afford price falls now, because it really is fantasy land. How much of a fall they will accept is the main question

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And if all was rosy and sustainable why would HSBC announce this?

HSBC, one of the last banks to offer low-deposit “90%” mortgages, is expected to restrict sales within days, in a move likely to leave first-time buyers struggling to find a loan.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/02/hsbc-plans-to-curb-sales-of-low-deposit-mortgages?CMP=share_btn_link

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1 hour ago, Smiley George said:

The British public are a crowd of blithering simpletons - discuss.

The VI’s and Mr Sunak have played a blinder and the public have fallen for it. The FOMO effect post pandemic makes no sense whatsoever if you stop for a second and look at what is actually going on in the UK and world economies. There is plenty of information in the public domain from the likes of the ONS and BOE predicting falls of around 15% by the end of next year.

We’re still viewing houses at the minute but the quality is low and asking prices are stupid. We met a rare breed yesterday an honest EA, he spoke about difficulty getting instructions as he try’s to be sensible and set expectations when valuing. One house he valued has gone under offer, at 15k over what he valued at and the vendor rang him up to gloat “see I would’ve lost money if I’d gone with you”. There are 5 houses in the chain he’s just become a part of. The EA’s response, “I’ll see you in 16 weeks when it collapses”

This EA view isn’t isolated. Speak to any valuer (not the receptionist covering for the summer) and the view is the same. 

I spoke to a valuer (retired but still consults) and he was saying he has never been busier. I asked whether he thought the market was good....and he just shook his head. “Anyone buying at these prices at the moment is an idiot, it feels like the 80’s and it’s going to end the same”. 

Now this chap is VERY experienced and worked in London in the 80’s. He said houses went up £1000 a day and then it all just stopped. Literally phones stopped completely. He remembers thinking just how low do we have to go before we tempt people back in. 

What is interesting is I know 2 other estates who feel the same way. One just described it as weird and really inconsistent, the other is expecting to come in one day and be told it’s all over. 

I don’t knowingly predict a crash but my son is holding on until at least Feb to get more information on how this is unfolding. A viewing he is doing (to get to know areas, house types and prices) on Sunday has 8 viewers booked in. Why would he “outbid all those people rather than just wait for less pent up demand.” 

His was an interesting statement and my exactly experience of buying....Why fight for a house this month. 

Eg regardless of potential prices increases over a 6 month period,  a house listed for £235k with loads of viewers and offers might sell for £235k to £255k. In February (assuming those 8 people have bought, given up, lost interest or now are redundant) a similar house is listed at £238k and sells for £220k....that is £255 less £220 a £35k fall without even a fall in the market.

Negative equity hit many people in the 90’s but the vast majority overpaid in a frenzy of bids. There will alway be another house come up.....

Edited by Pop321
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1 hour ago, captainb said:

Has anyone commented on the mortgages given? 

Those on here saying "banks are not lending" looking at the july data that was fictional as per ususal

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

Something interesting about the graph there in late 2019/early 2020.. Mortgage approvals were on the up before lockdown. I wonder if we'd have seen a bit of a mini boom without lockdown? Maybe just related to the december election.

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6 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

This EA view isn’t isolated. Speak to any valuer (not the receptionist covering for the summer) and the view is the same. 

I spoke to a valuer (retired but still consults) and he was saying he has never been busier. I asked whether he thought the market was good....and he just shook his head. “Anyone buying at these prices at the moment is an idiot, it feels like the 80’s and it’s going to end the same”. 

Now this chap is VERY experienced and worked in London in the 80’s. He said houses went up £1000 a day and then it all just stopped. Literally phones stopped completely. He remembers thinking just how low do we have to go before we tempt people back in. 

What is interesting is I know 2 other estates who feel the same way. One just described it as weird and really inconsistent, the other is expecting to come in one day and be told it’s all over. 

I don’t knowingly predict a crash but my son is holding on until at least Feb to get more information on how this is unfolding. A viewing he is doing (to get to know areas, house types and prices) on Sunday has 8 viewers booked in. Why would he “outbid all those people rather than just wait for less lent up demand.” 

His was an interesting statement and my exactly experience of buying....Why fight for a house this month. 

Eg regardless of prices a house listed for £235k with loads of viewers and offers might sell for £235k to £255k. In February (assuming those 8 people have bought) a similar house is listed at £238k and sells for £220k....that is £255 less £220 a £35k fall without even a fall in the market.

Negative equity hit many people in the 90’s but the vast majority overpaid in a frenzy of bids. There will alway be another house come up.....

Agreed. Any first time buyer not waiting till jan at least i think is strange. Particularly if their first move is a flat. 

Caution comparing to 80s though, what caused such a huge crash were the interest rate rises. No sign of them in the near term

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3 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

 spoke to a valuer (retired but still consults) and he was saying he has never been busier. I asked whether he thought the market was good....and he just shook his head. “Anyone buying at these prices at the moment is an idiot, it feels like the 80’s and it’s going to end the same”. 

Now this chap is VERY experienced and worked in London in the 80’s. He said houses went up £1000 a day and then it all just stopped. Literally phones stopped completely. He remembers thinking just how low do we have to go before we tempt people back in. 

What is interesting is I know 2 other estates who feel the same way. One just described it as weird and really inconsistent, the other is expecting to come in one day and be told it’s all over. 

I've posted a couple of times before that most people are too young to remember the mania of the late 80s and the subsequent bust. So interesting to hear the views of people who were actually at the coal face when it happened.

And I am in a similar position to your son i.e. holding on to early next year to see the lie of the land. This is like trying to guess how much coffee's actually in your cup when you've been given a really frothy cappuccino.

 

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13 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

This EA view isn’t isolated. Speak to any valuer (not the receptionist covering for the summer) and the view is the same. 

I spoke to a valuer (retired but still consults) and he was saying he has never been busier. I asked whether he thought the market was good....and he just shook his head. “Anyone buying at these prices at the moment is an idiot, it feels like the 80’s and it’s going to end the same”. 

Now this chap is VERY experienced and worked in London in the 80’s. He said houses went up £1000 a day and then it all just stopped. Literally phones stopped completely. He remembers thinking just how low do we have to go before we tempt people back in. 

What is interesting is I know 2 other estates who feel the same way. One just described it as weird and really inconsistent, the other is expecting to come in one day and be told it’s all over. 

I don’t knowingly predict a crash but my son is holding on until at least Feb to get more information on how this is unfolding. A viewing he is doing (to get to know areas, house types and prices) on Sunday has 8 viewers booked in. Why would he “outbid all those people rather than just wait for less lent up demand.” 

His was an interesting statement and my exactly experience of buying....Why fight for a house this month. 

Eg regardless of prices a house listed for £235k with loads of viewers and offers might sell for £235k to £255k. In February (assuming those 8 people have bought) a similar house is listed at £238k and sells for £220k....that is £255 less £220 a £35k fall without even a fall in the market.

Negative equity hit many people in the 90’s but the vast majority overpaid in a frenzy of bids. There will alway be another house come up.....

Wise son of a wise dad 😉

Round here in the bracket £750 - £ 1 million plenty of small  reductions (although not much on ) which backs my theory up that once you get to a certain level £15k is neither here nor there - job security and mortgage availability cut in.

Little different at the Kent  coast - where we are also  looking not many reductions but not many sales. I think they believe all the hype re everyone is going to work from home but not 90 mins by rail away, also could be the classic ripple hasn't hit them yet 

 

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TBH there is an element of waiting forever. I do think by February next year there will be another measure taken by the government which means people will be saying 'let's wait a few more months and it should be interesting', except that once those few months are up, another prop has gone in.

Sure the government probably knows that they cannot fight the markets indefinitely. But with props spread out over many years they could organise a soft landing instead of a crash. 

A scenario where nominal house prices stay roughly stable over half a decade where inflation increases by 20% in the same time would be a silent theft few would realise, or even complain about. In fact it would be a cause of celebration for many, ie 'my £500k house is still worth £500k today, looks like you were wrong about the crash'...

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12 minutes ago, simon2 said:

TBH there is an element of waiting forever. I do think by February next year there will be another measure taken by the government which means people will be saying 'let's wait a few more months and it should be interesting', except that once those few months are up, another prop has gone in.

Sure the government probably knows that they cannot fight the markets indefinitely. But with props spread out over many years they could organise a soft landing instead of a crash. 

A scenario where nominal house prices stay roughly stable over half a decade where inflation increases by 20% in the same time would be a silent theft few would realise, or even complain about. In fact it would be a cause of celebration for many, ie 'my £500k house is still worth £500k today, looks like you were wrong about the crash'...

Like this you mean? 

uk-house-prices-2020.png

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8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Like this you mean? 

uk-house-prices-2020.png

Exactly like that minus that stupid 2.9% trend line in the 1700 real house prices rose for 30 years then fell for 30 years net result 0% gain in real terms. Taking data from only 1975 onwards and slapping an excel trend line on it gives you a graph only a over leveraged building society would be proud of.

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1 minute ago, rantnrave said:

Part II of today's data:

Land Reg up 0.3% for May

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-may-2020/uk-house-price-index-summary-may-2020

June update out in a couple of weeks.

I am looking forward to june. We get to see who knows their stuff from the poll on this site last year (i guess there will be a few disappointed faces as over 70 predicted falls).

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7 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

Exactly like that minus that stupid 2.9% trend line in the 1700 real house prices rose for 30 years then fell for 30 years net result 0% gain in real terms. Taking data from only 1975 onwards and slapping an excel trend line on it gives you a graph only a over leveraged building society would be proud of.

The big issue wirh that graph is that its adjusted for inflation, not wage inflation, hence why prices are still insane to workers 

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7 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

I am looking forward to june. We get to see who knows their stuff from the poll on this site last year (i guess there will be a few disappointed faces as over 70 predicted falls).

Prices will fall off a cliff at some point, buying now at the bottom of the pyramud will ensure your finances are destroyed for life 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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32 minutes ago, simon2 said:

TBH there is an element of waiting forever. I do think by February next year there will be another measure taken by the government which means people will be saying 'let's wait a few more months and it should be interesting', except that once those few months are up, another prop has gone in.

Sure the government probably knows that they cannot fight the markets indefinitely. But with props spread out over many years they could organise a soft landing instead of a crash. 

A scenario where nominal house prices stay roughly stable over half a decade where inflation increases by 20% in the same time would be a silent theft few would realise, or even complain about. In fact it would be a cause of celebration for many, ie 'my £500k house is still worth £500k today, looks like you were wrong about the crash'...

Agreed. Although not as simple. 

75% LTV, 25 year mortgage. 

If prices remain flat for 10 years, you have still paid off 30% of the house. Those that rented have not. 

Its a pretty huge factor that cant be just dismissed with i invested the deposit in whatever asset with hindsight rose faster... Sure you did. 

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34 minutes ago, simon2 said:

TBH there is an element of waiting forever. I do think by February next year there will be another measure taken by the government which means people will be saying 'let's wait a few more months and it should be interesting', except that once those few months are up, another prop has gone in.

Sure the government probably knows that they cannot fight the markets indefinitely. But with props spread out over many years they could organise a soft landing instead of a crash. 

A scenario where nominal house prices stay roughly stable over half a decade where inflation increases by 20% in the same time would be a silent theft few would realise, or even complain about. In fact it would be a cause of celebration for many, ie 'my £500k house is still worth £500k today, looks like you were wrong about the crash'...

I understand this thought process which is why I said I don’t know they will fall but buying now (ie over the next 2/3 months) just feels careless. Caveat, there will be individual scenarios but there alway is. 

The government appetite is huge to keep things going but sentiment can change. A simple ‘let things slide and we can blame the pandemic’ might start to pan out....I doubt it but someone will be suggesting all options at the moment. 

I remember the last pandemic which created this quarantine and economic impact and what it did was.....oh wait, I don’t remember because it is unprecedented. 

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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