House Prices have boomed because economic stimulus preceded the coming unemployment spike

[Si1]

Discuss

Edited August 27, 2020 by Si1

[qejunkie]

Yes we’ve never seen an economic crisis where all the stimulus bazookers were fired before it started. 

[Si1]

20 hours ago, qejunkie said:

Yes we’ve never seen an economic crisis where all the stimulus bazookers were fired before it started. 

Yes. It's disconcerting. As if there's no downside risk to an overreaction.

[warpig]

On 27/08/2020 at 20:36, Si1 said:

Discuss

There were also pent up pending transactions, but yes you're right. Much live the government, most people's event horizon is normally quite short term. They'd both make terrible chess players.

[warpig]

I do wonder though... will the furlough scheme end up becoming a Universal Basic Income scheme by stealth... If that's true... money's free and asset prices really could do anything.

[2rocketman]

I know someone selling a house, accidental landlord. Called the estate agent they’re renting through to ask if anyone would want to buy it tenanted. A landlord offered straight away at an over the odds in my opinion. He asked for another 10% deal done just like that. I give up...
 

What with landlords getting debt slaves to pay off multiple mortgages on there behalf and all the others turning houses in to hotels I’m not sure they will ever drop back. I am starting to think I have missed the boat for good. 

[Si1]

29 minutes ago, 2rocketman said:

I know someone selling a house, accidental landlord. Called the estate agent they’re renting through to ask if anyone would want to buy it tenanted. A landlord offered straight away at an over the odds in my opinion. He asked for another 10% deal done just like that. I give up...
 

What with landlords getting debt slaves to pay off multiple mortgages on there behalf and all the others turning houses in to hotels I’m not sure they will ever drop back. I am starting to think I have missed the boat for good. 

Haven't housing benefits started going up with inflation again having been frozen for ages too?

Of course Tory MPs don't want taxes to go up or interest rates to be tightened because the above constitutes 'growth'

Edited August 31, 2020 by Si1

[dpg50000]

7 hours ago, 2rocketman said:

I know someone selling a house, accidental landlord. Called the estate agent they’re renting through to ask if anyone would want to buy it tenanted. A landlord offered straight away at an over the odds in my opinion. He asked for another 10% deal done just like that. I give up...
 

What with landlords getting debt slaves to pay off multiple mortgages on there behalf and all the others turning houses in to hotels I’m not sure they will ever drop back. I am starting to think I have missed the boat for good. 

[satsuma]

Its a fact that people have in many cases been handed an extra 50k in bouncy cheque loans as I call them, thats on top of reduced or no stamp duty costs.  Top it off with people hacked off with having been stuckduring lockdown.  Add pent pent up demand.  

We will shortly be in a situation of increasing unemployment.  Add to that landlords who have not being getting rent.  Top it off with the usual slump coming into bad weather.  Mix in the banks needing to be more selective on lending.  Add increased in tax and inflation and the companies running for the hills due to brexit.  

Which way it goes I dont know but what go's up must come down, often with a wimper, sometimes with a bang 

[Pmax2020]

While recent sold prices in Scotland are a bit surprising... I think all we’ve seen is a minor spike in sales from those that had to move after a period where they couldn’t move. 
 

I think it’s nonsense to suggest people would commit to buying a home because they somehow feel their employment is now underwritten by the government for many months to come.

Any boom in my view is down to thousands of people finding themselves saving a shedload on their commute thanks to home working. We’ve also had many months where it’s difficult to spend disposable income on gyms, meals, nights out, haircuts, gambling, or pricey summer holidays for that matter!
 

 

[2rocketman]

1 hour ago, dpg50000 said:

He met someone, they each had there own house. He moved into hers for a year to make sure it all worked out. Now they are going for 1 huge house of course! His sold without even going to the market with tenants in situ. Hers took 4 days. 

[dpg50000]

17 minutes ago, 2rocketman said:

He met someone, they each had there own house. He moved into hers for a year to make sure it all worked out. Now they are going for 1 huge house of course! His sold without even going to the market with tenants in situ. Hers took 4 days. 

He's still not an accidental landlord. He did (or should have done) everything in the picture in order to rent out.

[spyguy]

Theyve not, boomed that is.

 

[Orb]

1 hour ago, satsuma said:

Its a fact that people have in many cases been handed an extra 50k in bouncy cheque loans as I call them, thats on top of reduced or no stamp duty costs.  Top it off with people hacked off with having been stuckduring lockdown.  Add pent pent up demand.  

We will shortly be in a situation of increasing unemployment.  Add to that landlords who have not being getting rent.  Top it off with the usual slump coming into bad weather.  Mix in the banks needing to be more selective on lending.  Add increased in tax and inflation and the companies running for the hills due to brexit.  

Which way it goes I dont know but what go's up must come down, often with a wimper, sometimes with a bang 

My sister asked me in 2010 (when house prices were beginning to rise) why I wasn't buying a house. I told her they weren't worth current values, and said "what goes up must come down". She called me an idiot and said they wouldn't come down. Ten years later it seems she was right. I was convinced they'd come down. We seem to be living in a warped epoch where nothing makes much rational sense, and everything seems to lack substance.  

Edited August 31, 2020 by Orb

[satsuma]

2 minutes ago, Orb said:

My sister asked me in 2010 (when house prices were beginning to rise) why I wasn't buying a house. I told her they weren't worth current values, and said "what goes up must come down". She called me an idiot and said they wouldn't come down. Ten years later it seems she was right. I was convinced they'd come down. We seem to be living in a warped epoch where nothing makes much rational sense, and everything seems to lack substance.  

Fair enough, but they had come down at that point and will do again, done miss it this time 

[2rocketman]

18 minutes ago, dpg50000 said:

He's still not an accidental landlord. He did (or should have done) everything in the picture in order to rent out.

Well he purchased it with no intention of letting it out! Was his home for over 5 years and it’s only been tenanted for 6 months, hence selling it with them in situ.  It made sense to test the water before jumping in, but now they want to take advantage of the stamp holiday.  I’m just amazed how quick they’ve gone under offer. Not to mention how quick the houses they are viewing are getting snapped up...

[2rocketman]

8 minutes ago, Orb said:

My sister asked me in 2010 (when house prices were beginning to rise) why I wasn't buying a house. I told her they weren't worth current values, and said "what goes up must come down". She called me an idiot and said they wouldn't come down. Ten years later it seems she was right. I was convinced they'd come down. But we seem to be living in a warped epoch where nothing makes much rational sense, and everything seems to lack substance.  

Agreed.

[dpg50000]

4 minutes ago, 2rocketman said:

Well he purchased it with no intention of letting it out! Was his home for over 5 years and it’s only been tenanted for 6 months, hence selling it with them in situ.  It made sense to test the water before jumping in, but now they want to take advantage of the stamp holiday.  I’m just amazed how quick they’ve gone under offer. Not to mention how quick the houses they are viewing are getting snapped up...

Indeed. I'm only pulling your leg (a bit). I agree, it makes sense to test things out before they commit together. Just took (minor) offence to the use of the world accidental 🙂

[longgone]

13 minutes ago, Orb said:

My sister asked me in 2010 (when house prices were beginning to rise) why I wasn't buying a house. I told her they weren't worth current values, and said "what goes up must come down". She called me an idiot and said they wouldn't come down. Ten years later it seems she was right. I was convinced they'd come down. We seem to be living in a warped epoch where nothing makes much rational sense, and everything seems to lack substance.  

HTB was the turning point, I tried to buy a few times then gave up and here we are.

You may get a chance next year, depends how this lot behave.

[Martin_JD]

If you can afford somewhere you like and feel reasonably secure making the repayments then i would say go for it.  That's what i've just done anyway.  Time will tell what happens but the general trend of house prices is clear to see. 

[scottbeard]

4 hours ago, dpg50000 said:

He's still not an accidental landlord. He did (or should have done) everything in the picture in order to rent out.

+1  

"Person who decided that the best balance of financial risks was to rent out his house" might be different to "Person who went out to buy a BTL house" but there is nothing accidental about it.  "Accidental landlord" is such a misnomer.

[scottbeard]

5 hours ago, satsuma said:

Its a fact that people have in many cases been handed an extra 50k in bouncy cheque loans as I call them, thats on top of reduced or no stamp duty costs.  Top it off with people hacked off with having been stuckduring lockdown.  Add pent pent up demand.  

We will shortly be in a situation of increasing unemployment.  Add to that landlords who have not being getting rent.  Top it off with the usual slump coming into bad weather.  Mix in the banks needing to be more selective on lending.  Add increased in tax and inflation and the companies running for the hills due to brexit.  

Which way it goes I dont know but what go's up must come down, often with a wimper, sometimes with a bang 

I'm not sure that you can apply a maxim about gravity to absolutely everything else.

The Voyager spacecraft team would tell you it's not even true about gravity

[Si1]

9 hours ago, Orb said:

My sister asked me in 2010 (when house prices were beginning to rise) why I wasn't buying a house. I told her they weren't worth current values, and said "what goes up must come down". She called me an idiot and said they wouldn't come down. Ten years later it seems she was right. I was convinced they'd come down. We seem to be living in a warped epoch where nothing makes much rational sense, and everything seems to lack substance.  

To be honest, I thought we'd have a crash with the credit crunch, which would be answered by epic money printing (reading essays etc about how we'd deal with a crash by policy influencers like Krugman in the mid 2000s told me that ), so an echo boom would follow, so the crash would not complete fully. That's just how govts respond to such things. However we're now on the next leg down. I expected a 20 year time scale over all. I think the bottom of this sub cycle will be lower, in real terms, than the 2010-12 bottom. I didn't buy then because I was a victim of the recession and out of a job for a period!

Of course the timing, spanning multiple decades, is costing people their whole economic lives. However I'm optimistic my children will get a better opportunity than me.

[Si1]

5 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I'm not sure that you can apply a maxim about gravity to absolutely everything else.

 

That is true. It's a bad analogy.

[Si1]

8 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

.  Time will tell what happens but the general trend of house prices is clear to see. 

Down