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I'm a bug fan of Medium which is a open publishing platform. It tends to retain more quality than many of the other sites.

Anyway, I came across this article, which I think pretty much sums things up on the stock markets.

https://medium.com/concoda/this-is-how-the-stock-market-just-keeps-going-up-21ad42425896

Essentially (as we know) they (the rich elite) won't allow the excessive financialisation that has taken place to collapse.

This occurs due to fed printing, which occurs because it is in their and the market participants interest. Low quality bonds, get sold on as triple AAA by attaching insurance (CDS) creating a supposed Triple AAA product. A hedge fund buys this, it then uses it as collateral against a bigger bank loan and suddenly has even more money to play with.

This is what went wrong in 2008, too much financialisation that became unsustainable until a really big bailout. This time COVID gave aircover to the bailout.

>> This is the only reason I am now long stocks again, I sold out well before the Pandemic and the bought back low during the crash (purchasing late March).  I made some health gains, but my realisation is that current newly minted money will lead stocks much higher such is the scale. Basically I was front running the Fed too.

Right now we are still in the foothills, and things may run flat for another 3-6 months, but after this I predict the DOW will start climbing and will likely reach around 48,000 by 2026/27.

The real economy will also recover, though individuals may feel worse off for a while. One thing to remember is we now also have a big demographic (Millennials) aged between 20 and 40 who will be pushing cash into stocks, boomers may be drawing down, but most (in the US at least) remain in stocks as why buy a rubbish annuity.

 

 

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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24 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

Right now we are still in the foothills, and things may run flat for another 3-6 months, but after this I predict the DOW will start climbing and will likely reach around 48,000 by 2026/27.

 

 

 

+100 when money keeps being printed a crash cannot happen. The only way for this thing to really crash is a blow off top, i think 1929 style but 2029. 

It has to reach a point when everyone is soo drunk on gains and the party doesn't seem to want to stop, that a few quiet soles will sell out (maybe around 2027 or 2028), leaving the rest to pile in.

the virus has helped the stock markets hugely as it took out some steam, and small corrections along the way are key for a blow off top forming over a longer period (and get higher).

i have a shoe polishing box which im going to re-paint with 'ask me about stocks!'

Edited by jiltedjen
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The shadow banking system came into existence in the late seventies/early eighties as a mechanism for evading regulatory supervision over the origination of credit money. Every recession since has been a consequence of that regulatory failure. 

Quite simply, free markets are inherently wasteful, inefficient and incapable of self-correction.

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12 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Why stocks keep rising ? Hmmmm.

At the height of the dot com bubble around 2000 the FTSE100 was about 6500. Today it's about 6000.

Shouldn't the title actually be "why stocks will rise in the future?"

More pertinently: Why do tech stocks keep rising?

Where would US stock markets be without those crazy tax-dodging, Silicon Valley robber barons?

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15 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Why stocks keep rising ? Hmmmm.

At the height of the dot com bubble around 2000 the FTSE100 was about 6500. Today it's about 6000.

Shouldn't the title actually be "why stocks will rise in the future?"

in the UK houses are the go-to value store/investment, most stock gains just get fed into housing. But a US blow off top will cause issues and effects here also. 

in the US shares pay a much bigger role.

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Trouble is i could put every penny into shares and still be poor in reality after doubling tripling quadrupling whatever 😂

some property has performed much better. and those that joined the crypto club at it`s conception stage. 

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1 minute ago, jiltedjen said:

+100 when money keeps being printed a crash cannot happen. The only way for this thing to really crash is a blow off top, i think 1929 style but 2029. 

It has to reach a point when everyone is soo drunk on gains and the party doesn't seem to want to stop, that a few quiet soles will sell out (maybe around 2027 or 2028), leaving the rest to pile in.

the virus has helped the stock markets hugely as it took out some steam, and small corrections along the way are key for a blow off top forming.

i have a shoe polishing box which im going to re-paint with 'ask me about stocks!'

 

Yes, you are thinking like I am thinking.

I'm going to put a note in my diary for points throughout 2027/8 reminding me to check my stock portfolio and whether i should sell up and go all gold/cash.

This is exactly what I did this time.  Back in 2010, I put a note in my diary suggesting I look at selling from around 2017, I eventually bailed Oct 2018, a bit early, but near enough the top and I was then ready for when the COVID crash happened.

I think we need to alert from mid to late 2027, though with the bigger printing this time and Millennials joining the party, there is a chance we may get an even longer run up. 

Yes, 2029 is a good call it is early enough into a new US Presidency for them to take bad news early ahead of a 2012 election.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Why stocks keep rising ? Hmmmm.

At the height of the dot com bubble around 2000 the FTSE100 was about 6500. Today it's about 6000.

Shouldn't the title actually be "why stocks will rise in the future?"

That is the sad state of the UK, not elsewhere.

If you had bought US stocks,  you'd have gained twice, both on the rising market and on calling GBP.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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6 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

Similar to myself, i reduced my stock exposure at the same time and increased my gold exposure, and its all worked out well.

i think the gains will be a rising all boats style thing, everyone will gain (maybe not gold). But its not going to be gains to be the main thing to think about, the huge massive crash will be pretty brutal.

Its hard to call what 2029 will look like, could be debt write offs (those with mortgages bailed out), or could be loads of repossessions, but be harsh chasing of debts? no idea.

Im just going to be as debt free as possible and as secure as possible with work and savings.

im pretty sure everyone by then will be buying mental cars, lambos a plenty etc, the signs will be clear that its about to blow up, it will be hard not to be sucked in and still be frugal. 

it will be a new generation forced into stock speculation due to high house prices piling in, and they will pile in hard, i expect Bitcoin to do really well also as it will suit that generation down to the ground.

history doesn't always repeat but it does rhyme, once in 100 year events (as we know quite well with coco-roro) do come around, 2008 was nothing compared to 2029, in fact it put everything in place for 2029 to happen.

i think maybe the old will be thrown onto the bonfire by then, no longer holding voting majority against a resentful voting base    

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5 minutes ago, ucnvpe0 said:

Good article. I agree. 

The stock market is one the few areas where an average person can share some of gains from the rigged financial system. 

indeed while supporting it at the same time yet moan about why house prices still rise and they rent 😂

 

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With the new generation of 'share apps' (Robin Hood, Nutmeg etc)...the sheeple are being set up as the greater fool.  Flood the press with 'shares are always rising, innit' type stories and sell up to let some other fool take the hit.

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10 minutes ago, ucnvpe0 said:

Good article. I agree. 

The stock market is one the few areas where an average person can share some of gains from the rigged financial system. 

Except things move very fast in the stock market, unlike property.....nano seconds....the average person will have no chance.;)

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I suppose things may be different in the US, and that's the big driver, but I don't really come across many millennials in the UK that would buy shares. The conversation is normally along the lines of

"I get nothing in the bank with interest rates so low. If I can buy a house then in the future I can rent it out"

"How about shares? You can get about 5% just on dividends in some companies"

"It's gambling/I don't understand/Property is safe"

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3 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

I suppose things may be different in the US, and that's the big driver, but I don't really come across many millennials in the UK that would buy shares. The conversation is normally along the lines of

"I get nothing in the bank with interest rates so low. If I can buy a house then in the future I can rent it out"

"How about shares? You can get about 5% just on dividends in some companies"

"It's gambling/I don't understand/Property is safe"

It is safe if it is a home to live in, pension and cash saving is sensible......gambling/trading on shares/currency or other investment property more risky........;)

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, msi said:

With the new generation of 'share apps' (Robin Hood, Nutmeg etc)...the sheeple are being set up as the greater fool.  Flood the press with 'shares are always rising, innit' type stories and sell up to let some other fool take the hit.

Which is why timing is essential, bail before the sheep.

Physical gold might be good, but you may also need to buy a fortress to go with it.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, msi said:

With the new generation of 'share apps' (Robin Hood, Nutmeg etc)...the sheeple are being set up as the greater fool.  Flood the press with 'shares are always rising, innit' type stories and sell up to let some other fool take the hit.

I think this is exactly what is planned.

GenX were generally bad for stocks, not enough of us to buy what the Boomers started liquidating. Also like Millennials a lot of GenX were priced out, so stocks might have been hard to buy with the rising rents.

The only reason stocks rose during the last decade is printing.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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43 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I think this is exactly what is planned.

GenX were generally bad for stocks, not enough of us to buy what the Boomers started liquidating. Also like Millennials a lot of GenX were priced out, so stocks might have been hard to buy with the rising rents.

The only reason stocks rose during the last decade is printing.

ah the free market at work again. 

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5 minutes ago, LetsBuild said:

I don’t know why some of you are talking about the late 20’s for this to come to a head. The system is facing serious issues now and we are not even in autumn 2020.

how do you propose that huge halls happen when the currency is thrown under the bus via huge printing?

we are in a situation where the only failure mode is a white hot blow off top, and if that's the only option, the only direction that's where this will go.

Covid only served to underline that this is what will happen, and soon the masses will realize that houses, stocks etc are all a sure bet we are off to the races.

when events like this happen only pure insanity, sure shoeshine boy moments will finally crack it all apart.

no longer are prices linked to growth or income, or even value. its all about the printing, its already started to happen, it will come to a head in years time. 2029 here we come, enjoy it up until then, dont be in cash! 

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it`s going to take a while for the real damage to be displayed, lets see how many plebs can stay employed before making assumptions about whats going to happen.  no employment = no economic activity unless we get massive state backed intervention long term UBI etc. 

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2 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

how do you propose that huge halls happen when the currency is thrown under the bus via huge printing?

we are in a situation where the only failure mode is a white hot blow off top, and if that's the only option, the only direction that's where this will go.

Covid only served to underline that this is what will happen, and soon the masses will realize that houses, stocks etc are all a sure bet we are off to the races.

when events like this happen only pure insanity, sure shoeshine boy moments will finally crack it all apart.

no longer are prices linked to growth or income, or even value. its all about the printing, its already started to happen, it will come to a head in years time. 2029 here we come, enjoy it up until then, dont be in cash! 

I think my problem following this is how exactly is the printed money is getting into the real economy. Furlough is less than people would otherwise of got paid. Dine in to help out, suppose that’s an additional £500m but stops soon. Bounce back loans maybe?

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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