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UK GDP -30% year on year come Feb 2021


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There's no link, it's a hypothesis.

UK GDP Q2 2020 down 20% year on year, despite the UK Government paying the wages.

There's plenty talk about a bounce/recovery, however I'd expect Q3, Q4 and Q1 2021 to be down year on year, therefore the cumulative total come the Spring could be circa -30%.

Retail, restaurants, entertainment, aviation etc, all these different sectors on their knees.  Not possible for Q3 to be higher than Q3 2019. 

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People now don't have long to wait to purchase a house at a reasonable price, or not as the case may be. Many people on this site have been waiting for over 15 years now, but all they've seen is ever increasing prices year on year.

You now only have a maximum of 12 months to wait. If house prices are not at least -30% by April 2021, they never will be. Following that, this time next year, you should be looking at -40%. If however we find ourselves with similar prices in April 2021 as they are today, you're probably in all actuality going to see house prices increase over the following years, and by 2024, you could well be looking at +30 to 40% over today's prices.

If prices don't look like they're correcting soon into the new year, I think you will need to admit defeat. Unfortunately, if you're cash rich, inflation is going to eat you alive this time around.

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19 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

People now don't have long to wait to purchase a house at a reasonable price, or not as the case may be. Many people on this site have been waiting for over 15 years now, but all they've seen is ever increasing prices year on year.

You now only have a maximum of 12 months to wait. If house prices are not at least -30% by April 2021, they never will be. Following that, this time next year, you should be looking at -40%. If however we find ourselves with similar prices in April 2021 as they are today, you're probably in all actuality going to see house prices increase over the following years, and by 2024, you could well be looking at +30 to 40% over today's prices.

If prices don't look like they're correcting soon into the new year, I think you will need to admit defeat. Unfortunately, if you're cash rich, inflation is going to eat you alive this time around.

Madness. 40% above current prices are you will have riots on the streets. Nobody on this island could buy or rent at those levels. 

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10 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

People now don't have long to wait to purchase a house at a reasonable price, or not as the case may be. Many people on this site have been waiting for over 15 years now, but all they've seen is ever increasing prices year on year.

You now only have a maximum of 12 months to wait. If house prices are not at least -30% by April 2021, they never will be. Following that, this time next year, you should be looking at -40%. If however we find ourselves with similar prices in April 2021 as they are today, you're probably in all actuality going to see house prices increase over the following years, and by 2024, you could well be looking at +30 to 40% over today's prices.

If prices don't look like they're correcting soon into the new year, I think you will need to admit defeat. Unfortunately, if you're cash rich, inflation is going to eat you alive this time around.

This is inline with my thinking. If no sign of them falling by New Year, then no doubt  prices will start rising again into the summer...

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8 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Madness. 40% above current prices are you will have riots on the streets. Nobody on this island could buy or rent at those levels. 

Government may just extend HTB to historic housing stock alongside new builds. Quite imaginable to see a policy that extends HTB government deposit from current (non-London) to say 30%/40%.

The longer prices rise then the more the tax payer will have to intervene, would not rule anything out with this government and their HPI forever mentality.

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11 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Madness. 40% above current prices are you will have riots on the streets. Nobody on this island could buy or rent at those levels. 

Plebs in this country don't know how to riot. Believe me, you haven't seen anything yet.

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14 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

Plebs in this country don't know how to riot. Believe me, you haven't seen anything yet.

Hot weather, but awful music and a pandemic.  I thought we were close when the junk food takeaways shut.  The truth is the masses don’t realise that they’re being ridden.   They need a simple message - you will never get civil disobedience, they are too fat.

 

Edited by “Nasty Piece of work”
BF’ed tablet.
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I don't believe there will be house prices crash. Elites is too committed to keep asset prices inflated and protect their own wealth regardless of the cost of such policies. Rather I think we now have an increasing probability of a full scale currency crisis within the next few years.

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3 hours ago, 2rocketman said:

I really hope not. If they haven’t dropped by February then I give up. I will 100% be a buyer in the first quarter of 2021 if not before. I can’t wait any longer...

I wonder if the government are banking on this? Despite 2021 prop removal, everyone has given up on the idea of falling prices by the end of 2020.

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4 hours ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Madness. 40% above current prices are you will have riots on the streets. Nobody on this island could buy or rent at those levels. 

The most likely scenario in which house prices rise 40% is one where there is such rampant inflation that wages (in GBP terms) have risen even more.

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On 8/14/2020 at 7:43 PM, Dreamcasting said:

People now don't have long to wait to purchase a house at a reasonable price, or not as the case may be. Many people on this site have been waiting for over 15 years now, but all they've seen is ever increasing prices year on year.

You now only have a maximum of 12 months to wait. If house prices are not at least -30% by April 2021, they never will be. Following that, this time next year, you should be looking at -40%. If however we find ourselves with similar prices in April 2021 as they are today, you're probably in all actuality going to see house prices increase over the following years, and by 2024, you could well be looking at +30 to 40% over today's prices.

There are people on here buying or selling at the moment. Interesting times.

I can't see +40% in 2024 given that's when the BoE currently estimates the economy will have returned to 2019 levels.

Quote

If prices don't look like they're correcting soon into the new year, I think you will need to admit defeat. Unfortunately, if you're cash rich, inflation is going to eat you alive this time around.

If you look at inflation across the globe it has tumbled. With depressed demand I can't see significant inflation of a while in most of those countries. The UK might be a special case because Sterling is relatively exposed and Brexit is also looming and weak Sterling may be the governments best hope to get circa 2% inflation. I expect the EU and USA to be at around 0 (+-0.5%) for a couple of years.

Edited by NobodyInParticular
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On 8/14/2020 at 6:48 PM, neilrich said:

There's no link, it's a hypothesis.

UK GDP Q2 2020 down 20% year on year, despite the UK Government paying the wages.

There's plenty talk about a bounce/recovery, however I'd expect Q3, Q4 and Q1 2021 to be down year on year, therefore the cumulative total come the Spring could be circa -30%.

Retail, restaurants, entertainment, aviation etc, all these different sectors on their knees.  Not possible for Q3 to be higher than Q3 2019. 

Thats not how GDP works... 

The 20% down was for the quarter... You divide that by 4 for the year. That was when everything was lockdown and you were meant to go outside once a day.. June was ab uplift from the may low. 

Going foward you would expect year on year down but not 20%.

Current estimate for the year is around 9% which seems reasonable. 

Also worth nothing its Jan 2021 v Jan 2020. Which is the key figure. 

The fact we kind of stopped for 3 months is all very interesting but it's the size going forward when open that matters.

 

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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