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Heaven knows but can't make head or tail of the market right now - seeing first houses boomeranging back to market because of redundancies - and seeing forced sales too - the first ones since the crisis struck. 

Then I am seeing overbidding - a wall of cash from the banks has hit the market - it is borrowed money - a large mortgage broker tells me people are overbidding but to his surprise the lenders are supporting this overbidding rather than challenging it. 

Plus I am seeing lots of very flamboyant purchases from businessmen and women I know - this is borrowed cash - no doubt a misuse of Sunak's lending! 

What a crazy period - and there is an ominous feel that this is about to hit the wall in a few weeks - getting that in my sector - tech - which should be driving the economy. Without us you're all basically stuffed anyway and we've been cratered. 

Signals are very mixed and disturbing re: the banks - what is their game? One last splurge to keep the ponzi going? A last gasp? It feels a bit like that. 

Edited by gruffydd
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I feel it in water too :) TBH it’s like the Nasdaq...insanity. I want nothing to do with either (although I foolishly shorted the NASDAQ in May...not going too well that one!). My gut feeling in the US is that Trump is being set up for the mother of all crashes in October, which will finish him off. Here though, the London market is going down, but some of the surrounding areas have gone up a bit. That will not last. London will drag everyone down with it. My area sees reductions and SSTCs every day. 

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I think we are in a very weird place right now. Some people seem to think Covid is behind us whereas I'm expecting a pub led second spike. A near neighbour took their house off the market back in March after not selling for over six months. The price fell from 340k to 320k. Its now listed as new on the market at 280k and yet the 'news' is rising house prices in the countryside out of town. The market is distorted here with lots of new-build but even so this looks like  a drastic price cut.

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Essentially nobody is doing anything but the VIs and the media are creating content. The entire country has stopped work and taken a few months holiday using the credit card. Can the country settle up immediately? No, it has to go for minimum repayment, so needs an income. After a few months out of the job market, however, candidate UK is not seen as desirable. 

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7 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Heaven knows but can't make head or tail of the market right now - seeing first houses boomeranging back to market because of redundancies - and seeing forced sales too - the first ones since the crisis struck. 

Then I am seeing overbidding - a wall of cash from the banks has hit the market - it is borrowed money - a large mortgage broker tells me people are overbidding but to his surprise the lenders are supporting this overbidding rather than challenging it. 

Plus I am seeing lots of very flamboyant purchases from businessmen and women I know - this is borrowed cash - no doubt a misuse of Sunak's lending! 

What a crazy period - and there is an ominous feel that this is about to hit the wall in a few weeks - getting that in my sector - tech - which should be driving the economy. Without us you're all basically stuffed anyway and we've been cratered. 

Signals are very mixed and disturbing re: the banks - what is their game? One last splurge to keep the ponzi going? A last gasp? It feels a bit like that. 

I was thinking the very same! It does feel like the last hurrah before the inevitable car crash that is looming.  I can understand people thinking "life's too short, let's buy that dream house" or... "We always said we'd get a bigger garden". But how are people expecting to pay for it? Even cash buyers are dependent on selling to people with mortgages. I think we'll see lots of broken chains.

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It's just processing information, that's all.

It'll be like this as long as the information keeps changing at such a rapid rate, and for a period afterwards whilst the latest quasi-stable state is found after the initial dust settles. (Note a stable state may be a consistent rate of annual change for a while not stable prices)

So I would expect it to be somewhat hard to read like this for some years, at a guess.

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It could be right.

Going by my large Rightmove watchlist, several houses in that range which I thought were overpriced before lockdown went SSTC. There are some areas such as by the coast also picked up. The only real exception is London flats, slow to move before and slow to move after, price is the main culprit.

There was one road in particular which I thought most sellers had overvalued their property on going into the pandemic - about 6 houses on there, not budging at various prices of £325k+....undercut by a probate house which was on at £275k (but needed work) which also didn't sell. I think 4 of these are SSTC now, helped by the probate being removed.

You would hope the valuations knock some of these back but if people have the means to pay for it, that isn't going to stop it.

I have seen very few genuinely forced sales, although this might not be a surprise given furlough and forbearance. I have seen a few where I suspect the elderly owners snuffed it due to covid, but these aren't at forced prices just yet.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Sausage said:

I was thinking the very same! It does feel like the last hurrah before the inevitable car crash that is looming.  I can understand people thinking "life's too short, let's buy that dream house" or... "We always said we'd get a bigger garden". But how are people expecting to pay for it? Even cash buyers are dependent on selling to people with mortgages. I think we'll see lots of broken chains.

Looking at behaviour where I'm living it appears some people have gone borderline insane - particularly the tourists - lots of aggro because people are refusing to accept there's a pandemic... really weird psycho stuff that will filter through to housing and much besides. All bets are off as far as I'm concerned. Sit back and watch the zombies... 

Edited by gruffydd
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Posted (edited)

My sense is there is a mania afoot - people thrashing out for something... as if loading yourself on debt for a house will solve the impact of the pandemic. A mass response to some level of psychological trauma. We are living through mad times... next stop is the banks - already under pressure, I suspect... and then... all bets are off. 

Edited by gruffydd
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But the Q is how long? Short term, medium term and as one economist said, "in the long term we are all dead"

Being Advised to wait with economic news  getting worse by the day, though the eat out thing makes it seems busier and buzzing now that things are easing up. 

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25 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

My sense is there is a mania afoot - people thrashing out for something... as if loading yourself on debt for a house will solve the impact of the pandemic. A mass response to some level of psychological trauma. We are living through mad times... next stop is the banks - already under pressure, I suspect... and then... all bets are off. 

I think this is the end game of the financial crisis moral hazard.

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36 minutes ago, househunter123 said:

But the Q is how long? Short term, medium term and as one economist said, "in the long term we are all dead"

Being Advised to wait with economic news  getting worse by the day, though the eat out thing makes it seems busier and buzzing now that things are easing up. 

Interestingly the eating out incentive may come back on the government like a rabid lion. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-airborne

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26 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I think this is the end game of the financial crisis moral hazard.

Yes certainly agree with that analysis - but the psychological stuff - the manic aspects - are a tad disturbing. 

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In a professional context I have cause to speak to a lot of surveyors at this time of year (and no I'm not giving any more details of why).

One told me the market has "gone crazy". Another has come out and said they think the report they provided in the immediate aftermath of lockdown was overly pessimistic and basically wrong (unprecedented). From my own perspective my property sailed through its valuation for remortgage purposes (pushing for a better rate) a few weeks ago. 

I don't understand it, I barely believe it, but I think the Tories have done just enough to avoid a crash. Sentiment really seems "bullish" at the moment. In normal times I would assume the news about employment would have a big impact today but I've just accepted we're in bizarro world now. Going to stop spending so much of my time thinking and worrying about this stuff to be honest. 

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9 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

In a professional context I have cause to speak to a lot of surveyors at this time of year (and no I'm not giving any more details of why).

One told me the market has "gone crazy". Another has come out and said they think the report they provided in the immediate aftermath of lockdown was overly pessimistic and basically wrong (unprecedented). From my own perspective my property sailed through its valuation for remortgage purposes (pushing for a better rate) a few weeks ago. 

I don't understand it, I barely believe it, but I think the Tories have done just enough to avoid a crash. Sentiment really seems "bullish" at the moment. In normal times I would assume the news about employment would have a big impact today but I've just accepted we're in bizarro world now. Going to stop spending so much of my time thinking and worrying about this stuff to be honest. 

Be interesting to see if this lasts when people lose their jobs. I think Philip Hammond nailed it when he said that precisely this would happen after the SD holiday was announced. He said that demand would be bought forward and combined with pent up demand after lockdown, and fewer people selling, prices would hold up. However all this would go into reverse once demand has been spent and the SD holiday was just delaying the inevitable. 

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8 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

I think the Tories have done just enough to avoid a crash

In the short term yes i'd agree. It's annoying as i had my eye on a few places that are now all SSTC. 

However, i don't see how this momentum can be maintained. The Stamp Duty reduction will either be extended or end in April. If extended, then the time urgency is lessened. If not extended then there will be mania in Feb/March and then a drop off in sales (similar to the introduction of the 3% additional rate in 2016).

What do they do after April to deliver a fresh burst of mania to pick up where the last left off? Nothing seems as mind - focusing for the masses as a Stamp Duty cut and, alas, they've already fired that weapon. 

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42 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

Yes certainly agree with that analysis - but the psychological stuff - the manic aspects - are a tad disturbing. 

Economics is ultimately a branch of psychology....

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23 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Heaven knows but can't make head or tail of the market right now - seeing first houses boomeranging back to market because of redundancies - and seeing forced sales too - the first ones since the crisis struck. 

Then I am seeing overbidding - a wall of cash from the banks has hit the market - it is borrowed money - a large mortgage broker tells me people are overbidding but to his surprise the lenders are supporting this overbidding rather than challenging it. 

Plus I am seeing lots of very flamboyant purchases from businessmen and women I know - this is borrowed cash - no doubt a misuse of Sunak's lending! 

What a crazy period - and there is an ominous feel that this is about to hit the wall in a few weeks - getting that in my sector - tech - which should be driving the economy. Without us you're all basically stuffed anyway and we've been cratered. 

Signals are very mixed and disturbing re: the banks - what is their game? One last splurge to keep the ponzi going? A last gasp? It feels a bit like that. 

It’s the roaring 20’s. Half price meals out, furlough aplenty, ice creams in the park on Wednesday whilst getting paid by the government, houses selling, Dow rallying its all good. The weather is great and even gold dropped a little today.... we have never had it so good. 

Next paragraph on the BBC website, something about Redundancies every day, furlough ending and many businesses weren’t in a great place anyway....it’s not important let’s focus on that 3% saving on house prices. Happy days. 

We all know what happened after the roaring 20’s.

I have been offered the flat I have wanted for years.... it owns the freehold of the other two flats. No thanks...well, not yet anyway?. I would rather sell mine than buy his. 

2 other approaches for a cheeky deal.... that 2 more than I have had in 5 years. 

I know two senior EA well and both feel as you do....that this doesn’t feel right. They don’t feel confident but are holding their breath and are expecting EVERYDAY for it to stop dead. 

Never felt so ominous; feels very much like people are having a go and enjoying themselves and burying their heads in the sand. 

I am keeping my powder dry....this could be a great opportunity for those watching the whole market. 

Feb 2021......boom. 

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To be fair the stamp duty holiday is an opportunity for folk to get into a house, no surprise there is a mini boom, the problem is there are hundreds of thousands of jobs gone and many businesses going to the wall.  Add to that the fact that houses in most places are silly money.  I’m sitting on my hands myself and will move next year once people are not even interested in housing 

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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