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Halifax House Price Index July 2020


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The increase is a direct result of vendors trousering the Stamp Duty “holiday”, it would be interesting to look at the change in Welsh prices over £250k, were no holidays are applied, and therefore the discount actually applies to FTB’ers.  But that would be more genuine, and fly in the face of those balls-deep V.I.’s.

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3 minutes ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

The increase is a direct result of vendors trousering the Stamp Duty “holiday”, it would be interesting to look at the change in Welsh prices over £250k, were no holidays are applied, and therefore the discount actually applies to FTB’ers.  But that would be more genuine, and fly in the face of those balls-deep V.I.’s.

So it did exactly what it was supposed to do.

Nothing to see here. Move on!

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5 minutes ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

The increase is a direct result of vendors trousering the Stamp Duty “holiday”, it would be interesting to look at the change in Welsh prices over £250k, were no holidays are applied, and therefore the discount actually applies to FTB’ers.  But that would be more genuine, and fly in the face of those balls-deep V.I.’s.

Interesting point. Let's imagine the Welsh border cuts through a street with totally identical houses on either side. The houses on the English side cost £400k; what do the Welsh houses cost?

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https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/aug/07/surprise-as-uk-house-prices-set-record-after-four-months-of-falls

Russell Galley MD at Halifax:

“The average house price in July is the highest it has ever been since the Halifax house price index began, and 3.8% higher than a year ago.

“The latest data adds to the emerging view that the market is experiencing a surprising spike post-lockdown.”

Supported by the government’s initiative of a significant cut in stamp duty, and evidence from households and agents suggesting that confidence is currently growing, the immediate future for the housing market looks brighter than many might have expected three months ago.”

 

What a tw@, revelling in government intervention and keeping the information flowing that a house is a one-way speculative asset and not a human necessity.

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This was always going to happen - 4 months of zero activity followed by a stimulus bringing forward demand.

The government will point to the less than expected decline in GDP as a success - but how much is simply caused by pumping house prices and hence imputed rents.

We'll see how it is once the reality of the situation hits home!

 

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Rates 0.1%, inflation estimated to be 0% this year and only hitting 2% in two years so no pressure to raise.. 

Not everyone outside of this forum, cough, is sold on hyperinflation. 

If your repayment mortgage can be fixed cheaper than your rent its not an irrational trade. Far from it. 

Until that situation changes talk of 20%plus falls is fantasy land. 

 

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Have the UK's young and those without established housing wealth ever had it so bad?  In living memory?

Job prospects dire and wages falling and yet the cost of shelter deliberately inflated by HMGov... 

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Could it be that something else is at play here. The stamp duty holiday delivers more benefit to a 500k house  (15k) than to a 250k house (5k). This has led to more high value houses being sold than lower ones. In this scenario the average house price will rise even if actual individual prices stayed the same. Your thoughts?

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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