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When will a crash come in collectable watches, cars etc.?


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Hi, I have started a few threads over the last few years on the stupid increase in prices for certain collectables.

 

I saw a YouTube video over lockdown about the Rolex watch secondary market, basically saying the prices hadn't moved yet.

 

As these things are basically the first thing you could / should liquidate if you are facing a personal financial crisis, any ideas if prices are  coming down?

 

Basically I want to know the best time for me to put in some lowball (or to me realistic) bids!!

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44 minutes ago, reddog said:

Hi, I have started a few threads over the last few years on the stupid increase in prices for certain collectables.

 

I saw a YouTube video over lockdown about the Rolex watch secondary market, basically saying the prices hadn't moved yet.

 

As these things are basically the first thing you could / should liquidate if you are facing a personal financial crisis, any ideas if prices are  coming down?

 

Basically I want to know the best time for me to put in some lowball (or to me realistic) bids!!

When you sit in the pub and folk you know offer you theirs.

Back in the 90's I remember this was not that uncommon.


 

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8 minutes ago, Neapolitan said:

Good luck finding a genuine used Rolex.

And anyway, any drug dealer would buy a Rolex after selling is first kg of cocaine. 
Classy people go for a Philippe Patek. 

FYI - I wasn't planning on buying a Rolex, it was just an illustration of a particular collectors market that has gone crazy in the last 5-10 years.

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Just now, Neapolitan said:

Good luck finding a genuine used Rolex.

And anyway, any drug dealer would buy a Rolex after selling is first kg of cocaine. 
Classy people go for a Philippe Patek. 

Too common lol

Richard Millie all the way baby (well tick tock tells me everyone has one and a Ferrari)

TBF why do people buy watches for tens of thousands or more?

Rich folk may well say ooh nice AP or Patek and watch snobs may go oh lovely VC or even a Zenith EP or dare I say a Grand Sieko.

But lets be honest a nice GMT master is suitable for most occasions and any trollop from Skegness to Shanghai knows Rolex = money.

Unless you have a specific social strata to impress you going to find it hard to beat the brand recog on a Rolex.
 


 

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8 minutes ago, reddog said:

FYI - I wasn't planning on buying a Rolex, it was just an illustration of a particular collectors market that has gone crazy in the last 5-10 years.

Sign of the time and the run to the alternatives. 
These are opaque markets though, impossible to get a fairly quotation, you really need to know your stuff. It could be a nice hobby though, I enjoy myself with tons of readings about diamonds these days. Market is crazy but stones are beautiful, however, with those I bought, I made a nice present ring for my miss back then. 

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If expensive watches are a viable investment there must exist a marketplace where they are bought and sold second-hand. Otherwise the whole proposition makes no sense. Same rule applies to diamonds - I always thought they aren't proper investment as they are difficult to re-sell. The whole idea of diamonds being valuable is based on relatively newly invented custom of buying them for a lot of money for a woman as a token of serious commitment so she keeps them for life.

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11 minutes ago, squeezed said:

If expensive watches are a viable investment there must exist a marketplace where they are bought and sold second-hand. Otherwise the whole proposition makes no sense. Same rule applies to diamonds.

In terms of watches the place is https://www.chrono24.com/ , but it is hard to put a market price on a watch due to people listing watches at high prices that never sell, and pumpers highlighting that this watch or that watch will go up, which in turn leads to even more unrealistic list prices.  

 

I am hoping that this guess into reverse, with a negative feedback loop leading to drops.  But I am not sure this is possible, with most people on the internet just wanting to pump, pump, pump.

 

 

 

 

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The crash comes when nobody wants a named watch, pictures, old cars or metals, coin or stones.

Now is the time to buy a holiday.....lots of £50 returns, saw a weeks break to Cyprus next week, return flights including a nice apartment in Paphos thrown in £200 per person inclusive. ;)

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I purchased a 2nd hand Omega Seamaster GMT from watchfinder for £400, about 15 years ago. I think they are about £2k on the 2nd hand market.  It all depends on if your watch becomes popular. Some animal thought it was ok to steal mine :)

Also remember, they  cost a lot to service, if you wear them.  So if your young(ish) I’d say buy one and enjoy it and it should at least hold its value or more.  If I had a lot of free cash I’d buy more than one. Here is my dream watch That I’d definitely wear, not store away:-

https://www.patek.com/en/collection/grand-complications/6102P-001

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6 minutes ago, winkie said:

The crash comes when nobody wants a named watch, pictures, old cars or metals, coin or stones.

Now is the time to buy a holiday.....lots of £50 returns, saw a weeks break to Cyprus next week, return flights including a nice apartment in Paphos thrown in £200 per person inclusive. ;)

better off with one of the other resorts a lot has closed down in paphos.  

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Collectibles drop substantially when people can't pay the mortgage and are about to get repossessed if they don't liquidate all other assets. 

So just watch numbers of repossessions is my guess. 

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2 minutes ago, dirtyduck said:

I purchased a 2nd hand Omega Seamaster GMT from watchfinder for £400, about 15 years ago. I think they are about £2k on the 2nd hand market.  It all depends on if your watch becomes popular. Some animal thought it was ok to steal mine :)

This is exactly the sort of price increase I am taljing about.  Sorry for you loss, hope the watch wasnt attached to your wrist at the time, but bad either way.

 

I am actually looking at pretty low end stuff and one watch I had in mind actually has a quartz movement (a Seiko 'Ripley' which has doubled over 5 years), so i should be ok.  But yes, you could pay £500/600 for a servicebon a high end watch.

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Collector standard watch prices have moved like house prices. I’m now of the thinking this is the time to sell rather than buy. For example a new Rolex Daytona with a ceramic bezel would set you back £8750 rrp if you were at the top of the 20 odd years year waiting list. These are now fetching 20k in the open market.

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10 minutes ago, longgone said:

better off with one of the other resorts a lot has closed down in paphos.  

Hop on a bus, see where it takes you......small Island. Books, reading......certain books out of print will be a store of value and a store of knowledge.;)

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1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

Good luck finding a genuine used Rolex.

And anyway, any drug dealer would buy a Rolex after selling is first kg of cocaine. 
Classy people go for a Philippe Patek. 

I bought one in 2003 off Ebay that I believe is genuine. I have the original box with the original cardboard sleeve (ie even with the wrapping), the seals and the registration.

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36 minutes ago, reddog said:

This is exactly the sort of price increase I am taljing about.  Sorry for you loss, hope the watch wasnt attached to your wrist at the time, but bad either way.

 

I am actually looking at pretty low end stuff and one watch I had in mind actually has a quartz movement (a Seiko 'Ripley' which has doubled over 5 years), so i should be ok.  But yes, you could pay £500/600 for a servicebon a high end watch.

Luckily I was insured , they gave 3.5k on a similar replacement, so I put some cash in and now have an omega 1948 small seconds.  Not worn it yet.

i love seiko in general, grand seikos are nice.  Not sure about investment, but damn nice watches.

everything has gone nuts, not just housing.  Once you put in real and nominal terms , it gets more confusing. 

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17 hours ago, winkie said:

Hop on a bus, see where it takes you......small Island. Books, reading......certain books out of print will be a store of value and a store of knowledge.;)

Coral bay that's about it ?
Alright for 200 though do it 

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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