Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

Although this is a UK space, tracking what’s going on in Europe could be interesting for both investment purposes and HPC. 
 

let’s start with Spain, where pieces are literally collapsing. -5.5% yoy, Barcelona almost -8%. 

https://elpais.com/economia/2020-07-21/la-pandemia-acelera-la-caida-de-precios-en-la-vivienda.html

The case of Barcelona is something I will follow quite closely. The fall is due to all these AirBnbs bought on leverage and now on the market. 
I once read the second city with the highest % of AirBnbs is...London. 

Paris still in a league of its own. Crazy. 
 

https://actu.fr/societe/malgre-la-crise-du-coronavirus-les-prix-de-l-immobilier-a-paris-et-en-ile-de-france-sont-toujours-en-hausse_34554188.html

 

In Italy +1.7% in July 

https://www.wallstreetitalia.com/case-prezzi-in-aumento-a-luglio-in-italia-valore-medio-a-1-700-euro-m2/

 

Analysts affirm that in the future HPI will be sustained by growth outside the main cities, as WFH will become more common. 
 

It makes sense to me. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Neapolitan said:

The case of Barcelona is something I will follow quite closely. The fall is due to all these AirBnbs bought on leverage and now on the market. 
I once read the second city with the highest % of AirBnbs is...London. 

 

Good riddance. How’s Amsterdam? Lots of post Brexit city jobs headed there + tonnes of Airbnbs to the point they tried to clamp down. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Surely its % of housing stock that matters in terms of Air B and B impact.

Expectation is London, New York etc. would have loads given the huge size of those cities. If Edinburgh had say half the number of London it would still have a much bigger impact up there.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know the score in Italy, but suspect it has similarities to Spain. Two main markets - the tourist/second home along the coasts and other tourist spots, and the big residential markets of Madrid, Barcelona and Bilbao (where property is normally at its most expensive).

The tourist areas were hit hard by the post 2007 crisis, and although prices have been rising in recent years, they've still not reached the 2007 peak:

https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2020/06/18/how-has-covid-19-impacted-the-costa-del-sol-property-market-so-far/

Not many tourists this year, because of the lockdown. However these areas may retain their appeal because if you had to be in lockdown, maybe near the beach isn't such a bad place to be?

Madrid and (particularly) Barcelona are going to be interesting. Their property prices recovered strongly after the HPC, so much so that residents were complaining about high rents/house prices  driven by the airbnb crowd. So now they have two questions. Will the office workers/commuters etc return to work in central Madrid and Barcelona? And will the tourists/airbnb crowd return? Both are probably dependent on what happens with Covid.

Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Neapolitan said:

What do you mean? Surely people down there but and sell houses and sign for mortgages.

The Italian mortgage market is tiny compared to UK and Northern Europe.

Few under 50s are paid enough to get a mortgage.

Most property outside of urban areas is pretty much worthless.

Where young people buy stuff theres elaborate borrowing n paying back from family members for the money.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

I don't know the score in Italy, but suspect it has similarities to Spain. Two main markets - the tourist/second home along the coasts and other tourist spots, and the big residential markets of Madrid, Barcelona and Bilbao (where property is normally at its most expensive).

The tourist areas were hit hard by the post 2007 crisis, and although prices have been rising in recent years, they've still not reached the 2007 peak:

https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2020/06/18/how-has-covid-19-impacted-the-costa-del-sol-property-market-so-far/

Not many tourists this year, because of the lockdown. However these areas may retain their appeal because if you had to be in lockdown, maybe near the beach isn't such a bad place to be?

Madrid and (particularly) Barcelona are going to be interesting. Their property prices recovered strongly after the HPC, so much so that residents were complaining about high rents/house prices  driven by the airbnb crowd. So now they have two questions. Will the office workers/commuters etc return to work in central Madrid and Barcelona? And will the tourists/airbnb crowd return? Both are probably dependent on what happens with Covid.

After Spain blow up, then the ECB slashed rates, Barca had hordes of Northern European, mainly Dutch n German n Swedes,  poured into buy holiday homes.

A lot ended up as AirBNB.

The native residents were blown out, lost their jobs and still remain stuck on E1000/m jobs.

Due to TCs/English and low paid/subbed jobs, a very large number of under 40s Spanish have poured into the UK.

 

So, natives left, to be replaced by Norther Europeans using higher earnings and very low borrowing to speculate on Barca real estate.

The young Spanish have poured into the UK,  floods of EU migrants  being f the factors behind the Brexit vote.

Soon most Spanish will have bennies and subs withdrawn, causing them to return home, to an AirBNB ingested hell hole.

 

Way to fix problems ECB/EU.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, spyguy said:

The Italian mortgage market is tiny compared to UK and Northern Europe.

Few under 50s are paid enough to get a mortgage.

Most property outside of urban areas is pretty much worthless.

Where young people buy stuff theres elaborate borrowing n paying back from family members for the money.

 

It really depends which urban area you’re looking at. Around the big cities it’s still expensive. I was told in Naples all new buildings are basically forbidden due to the volcano. They thought people would leave but they’re still there and prices are still high. Italians are obsessed with property, it’s not a usual for a family to purchase 2 or more houses for the kids. Now lots of families have empty houses in their portfolio, mostly old houses where granny used to live. They are now being refurbished for the grandsons. 
Also Italians actually live on the coasts, there are some big cities there. The inner part I think is too dangerous due to earthquakes or economically depressed. 
 

Some good investments are there I think, there an American guy on YouTube living 30 minutes from Milan who purchased his house for €30k at auction. 
 

However, the sense of this discussion is to understand what’s going to happen in Europe with the housing market. If they fall, I don’t think we won’t follow. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless you are paying huge sums for a legal, honest lawyer then Id not buy any real estate in italy.

The rules n taxes are too confusing.

Despite what people say property title is a bit dodgy esp. for foreigners.

Housing used to be good way fore getting rid of large amounts of black cash. Youd agree a 100k 'legal' prices but then pay ~50k extra for 'fittings', 'consultancy' whatever.

Thats less common now theres the Euro and most Italians banks have blown themselves up.

Itll get even rarer as Italy is forced to move to a none cash economy.

And thats the North.

Id not even consider taking out any loan or commitment for any property south of Milan. The entire economy really is backwards, bent, or both.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

I don't know the score in Italy, but suspect it has similarities to Spain. Two main markets - the tourist/second home along the coasts and other tourist spots, and the big residential markets of Madrid, Barcelona and Bilbao (where property is normally at its most expensive).

The tourist areas were hit hard by the post 2007 crisis, and although prices have been rising in recent years, they've still not reached the 2007 peak:

https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2020/06/18/how-has-covid-19-impacted-the-costa-del-sol-property-market-so-far/

Not many tourists this year, because of the lockdown. However these areas may retain their appeal because if you had to be in lockdown, maybe near the beach isn't such a bad place to be?

Madrid and (particularly) Barcelona are going to be interesting. Their property prices recovered strongly after the HPC, so much so that residents were complaining about high rents/house prices  driven by the airbnb crowd. So now they have two questions. Will the office workers/commuters etc return to work in central Madrid and Barcelona? And will the tourists/airbnb crowd return? Both are probably dependent on what happens with Covid.

Anecdotally, I got in touch with my contacts in Italy a few weeks ago. My contacts live around the Amalfi Coast, Roman coast and Apulia. My intention was to go there and find something for a cheap price for a couple of weeks. I was told they could not cope with demand.After three months of hard lockdown people couldn’t wait to go these places apparently. 

Edited by Neapolitan
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Neapolitan said:

Anecdotally, I got in touch with my contacts in Italy a few weeks ago. My contacts live around the Amalfi Coats, Roman coats and Apulia. My intention was to go there and find something for a cheap price for a couple of weeks. I was told they could not cope with demand.After three months of hard lockdown people couldn’t wait to go these places apparently. 

Ive just come back from Italy. 

Rome was empty, there were 6 of us in total in the sistine chapel when i was there and no huge tour groups. Was almost spiritual. 

Tuscany was very quiet also. Stayed in positano for one night and salerno for another on amalfi coast wasn't as busy as usual. 

Im sure you know already but itlaian trains, particularly the intercity ones are very good for getting around

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Unless you are paying huge sums for a legal, honest lawyer then Id not buy any real estate in italy.

The rules n taxes are too confusing.

Despite what people say property title is a bit dodgy esp. for foreigners.

Housing used to be good way fore getting rid of large amounts of black cash. Youd agree a 100k 'legal' prices but then pay ~50k extra for 'fittings', 'consultancy' whatever.

Thats less common now theres the Euro and most Italians banks have blown themselves up.

Itll get even rarer as Italy is forced to move to a none cash economy.

And thats the North.

Id not even consider taking out any loan or commitment for any property south of Milan. The entire economy really is backwards, bent, or both.

 

I do agree. I was told Italians have more than 4 trillions sitting on their accounts. There’s a lot of tax evasion in that figure I presume. 
I have never heard of extras when you buy a property there, but I am not surprised to read it could happen. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, captainb said:

Ive just come back from Italy. 

Rome was empty, there were 6 of us in total in the sistine chapel when i was there and no huge tour groups. Was almost spiritual. 

Tuscany was very quiet also. Stayed in positano for one night and salerno for another on amalfi coast wasn't as busy as usual. 

Im sure you know already but itlaian trains, particularly the intercity ones are very good for getting around

Did the Pope chase you around ,asking if you wanted a blessing?

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, spyguy said:

Did the Pope chase you around ,asking if you wanted a blessing?

 

Ha not quite,although % of priests in the few vistors who were there was very high. 

Touristy areas really suffering. Would imagine the lakes are really quiet without the Americans there as well

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, captainb said:

Ive just come back from Italy. 

Rome was empty, there were 6 of us in total in the sistine chapel when i was there and no huge tour groups. Was almost spiritual. 

Tuscany was very quiet also. Stayed in positano for one night and salerno for another on amalfi coast wasn't as busy as usual. 

Im sure you know already but itlaian trains, particularly the intercity ones are very good for getting around

I have to say I was told the scarcity was also due to the fact the accommodation offer dropped by 50% as many hotels didn’t bother opening for the summer. May I ask you if you have found prices to be cheaper? Maybe I’m still on time for a September break and I was thinking to go there or maybe Greece. 
 

Oh, honestly I have never set foot on an Italian intercity train. When I’ve been there I used to hire a car or take the fast ones, those reaching 180mph. Rome to Milan in 3 hours was pretty good and not that expensive either. 

Edited by Neapolitan
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Neapolitan said:

I have to say I was told the scarcity was also due to the fact the accommodation offer dropped by 50% as many hotels didn’t bother opening for the summer. May I ask you if you have found prices to be cheaper? Maybe I’m still on time for a September break and I was thinking to go there or maybe Greece. 

Hotels were. 3 nights in Rome for a 4 star hotel in the centre was €150 in total. 

Restaurants haven't chnaged their prices but a lot more offers to try and get people in.. Such as happy hour etc. 

Big issue of course is the pound is so low but you get that everywhere. 

Can only imagine mykonos and other Greek Islands without tourists, old costas trying to sell a €8 diet coke to the invisible man

Link to post
Share on other sites

A Spanish colleague once told me (about 3 years ago), that after 2008 the banks ended up with a lot of property on their books that they are not selling.

 

The reason they are not selling is because if they did sell, the property prices that did not go down that much (considering 2008), would go through the floor.

 

I guess there is still a lot of Spanish property on Spanish banks books that still hasn't been liquidated - 12 years after the GFQ!!

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Innkeeper said:

I’m not sure what you mean.  High prices, numbers of airbnb, price falls, something else?

Ops, I missed this quote.

 

Airbns are highly regulated in Paris. As far as I know, a flat in Paris is like gold in a Swiss vault. The 20 boroughs in Paris are some of the most sought after in the world. And it’s always been like that. Mind you Paris is as big as Zone 1-2 in London I think. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Neapolitan said:

Anecdotally, I got in touch with my contacts in Italy a few weeks ago. My contacts live around the Amalfi Coast, Roman coast and Apulia. My intention was to go there and find something for a cheap price for a couple of weeks. I was told they could not cope with demand.After three months of hard lockdown people couldn’t wait to go these places apparently. 

Can believe that. A nice place on the coast probably holds its appeal - even if it's mainly national tourism. A flat in the city centre - probably hit harder than anywhere.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

As I said I am following what is going on in Barcelona. 
Well, rent asking prices in free fall, as web sites are recording numbers in between 3 to 9 lower than previous quarter. 
The other big news is that an estimated 1 in 5 houses currently on the rental market are former Airbnb’s, holiday houses. Article on El Pais, if interested. 
 

As I expected, Airbnb’s flats are flooding the market in the main touristic cities. Maybe someone who owns the place can take the hit, but those who purchased on leverage, well, I wouldn’t be walking in their shoes right now. 
 

Key factor here is rent prices. If rents go back at pre-Airbnb’s levels, BTLers are going to find themselves in a very tough spot. Some of them barely break-even. If forced to sell, we will see the wave hitting sales prices as well. 
 

I once read around 30% of the money generated in London is tourism, that’s a lot. 
 

I haven’t read anything about the potential impact of the current situation. I fell it went under the radar because of the gov scheme paying the wages, however, there’s a huge amount of money not walking around right now. 
 

Edited by NoHPCinTheUK
Link to post
Share on other sites

Those looking to buy falling prices not a bad thing......places where we thought would always be in demand have lost their flare........people are looking for different things now, a better home for less, more room, own garden, freehold, fresh air, places to walk, good supportive local communities, safety, low crime...etc.....places here and places in Europe can also be attractive when broadband and telecommunications, roads, health and transport are good........why you could get two for the price of one little one.?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 419 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.