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House prices to drop in mid-2020s as baby boomers start dying out


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Is the trend comparable for the UK?  I read that the Tory voter base is mostly 65+ and due to halve over the next 2 GE's.

The next big voter cohort is 18-35, followed by the 15-18 yo, (that will be able to vote within 2 GEs).

The Tories are f****d, they need to shift either to the centre or become a populist party, hoping there are enough fool 'spoons thickos to  keep them going.

 

It should be an open goal for Labour, but they are even more in the wilderness -  time for a new 'millennial' party?

 

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2 minutes ago, Neapolitan said:

They won’t drop. Their kids will move in and you’ll never see these houses on the market. 
We are getting poorer and you need to start thinking as a poorer nation. 

I have to say I agree about us getting poorer, Germans, Swiss, Austrians are very well off by comparison.  I don’t think that many houses will be available due to boomers but I still think prices will drop because they are just far too high to be sustainable.  

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6 minutes ago, Neapolitan said:

They won’t drop. Their kids will move in and you’ll never see these houses on the market. 
We are getting poorer and you need to start thinking as a poorer nation. 

With the boomers dropping, the overall population drops. Net result - too many empty houses.

Either fix with more immigration, or sell up.

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1 minute ago, satsuma said:

I have to say I agree about us getting poorer, Germans, Swiss, Austrians are very well off by comparison.  I don’t think that many houses will be available due to boomers but I still think prices will drop because they are just far too high to be sustainable.  

Let me tell you what I experienced in other countries from data I collected and from indirect personal experiences. 
 

Relatively wealthy European country. Getting richer after the war. Slowly declining starting from the 70s. Everyone, literally everyone buying houses or opening accounts in Switzerland. House price skyrocketed,  old generation (WWII) start crossing the river, their houses taken from their kids. Prices still high. Local council in developers pockets of course.
Kids not as wealthy as their parents, their kids even worse. No chance of buying for them. They are taking the hit. It took almost 30 years to see the market finally collapsing. 
So, my opinion is that it will be boomers’ grandsons those who will see the crash. Mid 30s, 40s I’d say. 20 more years of insane prices.
Forget about us, someone buying today must know he’s burning 000.000s of pounds. 

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7 minutes ago, msi said:

With the boomers dropping, the overall population drops. Net result - too many empty houses.

Either fix with more immigration, or sell up.

Again, from my example: empty houses stay empty, with no one going to buy them. They’re either too old, too much money to renovate or in bad areas. 

Naples, 25% unemployment rate, and in good areas you’re not buying for less than 350/400k euros. Housing market when the country gets poorer is polarized: you have trash at the bottom no one would put a pence on and several locations where prices are insane. 
 


 

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1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

Again, from my example: empty houses stay empty, with no one going to buy them. They’re either too old, too much money to renovate or in bad areas. 

Naples, 25% unemployment rate, and in good areas you’re not buying for less than 350/400k euros. Housing market when the country gets poorer is polarized: you have trash at the bottom no one would put a pence on and several locations where prices are insane. 
 


 

This is a good post. I can see the same happening here. you can already buy very cheaply here in the North but why would you want to? That will exacerbate. 

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I don't think it will happen because the proposition that this is a large wedge of population that took up so much housing as they depart this world will free up large amounts of housing stock is negated by the fact the generation following up behind has been filled out with immigration.

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6 hours ago, Neapolitan said:

They won’t drop. Their kids will move in and you’ll never see these houses on the market. 
We are getting poorer and you need to start thinking as a poorer nation. 

Opportunity knocks! Could be a gap in the market for sock darning kits. 

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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