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Nationwide Jul 2020 House Price Index


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These trends look set to continue in the near term, further boosted by the recently announced stamp duty holiday, which will serve to bring some activity forward. However, there is a risk this proves to be something of a false dawn. Most forecasters expect labour market conditions to weaken significantly in the quarters ahead as a result of the aftereffects of the pandemic and as government support schemes wind down. If this comes to pass, it would likely dampen housing activity once again in the quarters ahead.

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17 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

However, there is a risk this proves to be something of a false dawn.

Yes, the real dawn will come when house prices go back to costing a few years of wages again instead of 10-20.

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annual house price growth recovered to 1.5%

.....not a good return considering what it costs to keep/maintain a house for a year....net loss......could do better.

Like cars, own and use it expect real depreciation.......nobody should be buying a home as an investment, buy it for what it can do for you, not on how much it might or might not make you......;)

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39 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

Nationwides index is based on asking prices or actual sold prices? I can never remember.

sold

28 minutes ago, winkie said:

.....not a good return considering what it costs to keep/maintain a house for a year....net loss......could do better.

Like cars, own and use it expect real depreciation.......nobody should be buying a home as an investment, buy it for what it can do for you, not on how much it might or might not make you......;)

winkie -I agree 100%

I cannot understand why people are so obsessed with how much a house may go up or down

Do people want a home or an investment fgs 

Do these people own a  car that is depreciating? Buy a new TV that is worth nothing in a year or 2. A new sofa when 2nd hand furniture is worthless.

Odd

 

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42 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

Nationwides index is based on asking prices or actual sold prices? I can never remember.

Based on 3month rolling avg of property's selling prices where mortgage was serviced by nationwide. Also seasonal adjustment included, and a sprinkle of VI BS.

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2 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

Based on 3month rolling avg of property's selling prices where mortgage was serviced by nationwide. Also seasonal adjustment included, and a sprinkle of VI BS.

Agreed selling prices? Actual selling prices? ... which can be different to first agreed prices.

LR in Q4 is what will tell us what we need to know.

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3 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

Based on 3month rolling avg of property's selling prices where mortgage was serviced by nationwide. Also seasonal adjustment included, and a sprinkle of VI BS.

Oh of course, the Nationwide "Let's massage the figures any way we can"  algorithm. Similar to Halifax's "Positive HPI only" algorithm.

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2 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

Based on 3month rolling avg of property's selling prices where mortgage was serviced by nationwide. Also seasonal adjustment included, and a sprinkle of VI BS.

Don't try and reason with it! The sun's shining, demand is high and supply is low. Repayments are rock bottom, so from a renters point of view BUY!

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2 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:
  • Annual house price growth recovers to 1.5% in July
  • Prices up 1.7% month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal factors, reversing last month’s fall
  • Stamp duty holiday likely to provide further support in the near term

All those people on here who said the removal of stamp duty would have no affect on prices are looking a bit silly now. I called it at the time. Also the poll at the bottom of the page "Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?" There are some wildly wrong answers (not withstanding June's land registry figures aren't out yet). Perhaps even for a site called house price crash people seem overly optimistic about the potential of falls given past government action.

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2 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:
  • Annual house price growth recovers to 1.5% in July
  • Prices up 1.7% month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal factors, reversing last month’s fall
  • Stamp duty holiday likely to provide further support in the near term

9,000 mortgages were sold in June.

Insane.

Banking giant NatWest Group has put aside another £2.1bn in case more people and firms default on loans because of the pandemic.

That meant it reported a £770m loss for the first half of 2020. Last year it made a £2.7bn profit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53605531

Natwest's, still being the lurching oversized  beast, left over from Fred's gogo year, is more representative of UK economy.

Nationwide is the last man standing of the UK building societies. Since 2008 its took on more n more crap borrowers, chasing margin.

NW lending book is going to be in much worse state than Natwest's. The prime borrowers NW used to lend to are paying off their mortgages.

 

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The government are so obviously invested in maximum Brexit as soon as possible that they're going to look pretty stupid if it causes an economic catastrophe that turns everyone against them. 

I think they're too proud not to do everything within their power (and maybe a little more) to prevent it. Long-term I think it will lead to disaster, but in the short to medium-term I'm not so sure. Just look at all the billions being sprayed around at the moment. 

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