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House Price Crash Forum

To buy or not to buy that is the Q


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Been a while since I have been on this forum! Apologies for the length of this post but we could REALLY do with some advice as we need to make up our minds within days! (We don't live in London, we live on Somerset and are thinking of buying in Wales).

We have had several disastrous moves over the past 12 years the latest being 3 ½ years ago. Partly the problem is down to what is available at the level we can afford. I would say we tend to buy what I call 1 in a million properties by which I mean that at the level we can afford there are just so many properties out there that I wouldn't click on once on Rightmove. I would then have to say that given the way property is bought and sold in the UK, probably the reason that a 1 in a million property is still available by the time our property gets sold is usually because there is a downside to the property as all the other 1 in a million property get snapped up whilst we are still trying to sell our property! How anyone manages to find a property that they want when a property has to be SSTC before securing another property god only knows given that it is so random whether a property will turn up within the 2 week window available given that a buyer usually wants the seller out in 8 – 10 weeks!

Our current saga began 8 months ago. For various reasons we decided we were going to have to move again (we are 72 and 67). A property we were going to buy 4 years ago hadn't ended up being built . The small developer had gone off and built other properties so the plot on one of his other developments hadn't been built and was available again. We got a buyer, then the pandemic so lost that buyer but now have another buyer. The property still to be built meanwhile had another offer on it then the people making the offer were furloughed and for now at least lost their mortgage offer. If the whole country hadn't just been hit by a pandemic causing the worst depression of all time (not even a recession) with an end of days Brexit looming on the horizon we would feel good about proceeding with the property we almost bought 4 years ago. As it is, our concern is that if we proceed now by the time the property is completed in April next year it could be valued 15% or more below what we have just paid for it!

Now whilst of course we get that property values go up and down and living in a property over decades none this doesn't really matter , a property is a home etc etc., to actually buy a property now that could possibly be worth 15% less (?) by April leaves us asking if this makes sense? We don't need a mortgage. The developer I assume would have more problems selling to someone who does need a mortgage if the value of the property will have dropped by the time it is completed.

Our BIG problem now is wanting a 3 bed detached property whilst only being able to afford a 2 bed semi or terrace . This move HAS to end up feeling like it was worth it so we don't want to end up spending the rest of our days hearing neighbours through walls (can't believe just how many people now have at least one guitar if not key boards /drumkits and hot tubs even in the tiniest terrace with the tiniest of gardens, and then there are the trampolines ).

This is why the property yet to be built (we will go into a rental in the meantime)  is another 1 in a million property because 3 bed detached properties that have parking and something other than electric heating or the bathroom downstairs etc etc (could well still have trampolines and hot tubs) are EXTREMELY difficult to find, which is why we are reluctant to let this one go again.

So what are the chances of property values actually dropping 15% or more by next year? The property we bought in 2009 had lost 15% of it's 2008 value (new build bought by an elderly man who then died). Thanks :O)


 

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Despite some of the posters here claiming with certainty that armageddon is on the way no one really knows as we can not see into the future.  My advice would simply be, do you see this as a long term home?  Are you going to stay there for good?  If so, and if it's your ideal place, go for it.  Life is too short. 

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The only thing can add is, if have something to sell no point looking until have a commited buyer for your own property, who has invested in conveyancing and survey.......else more risk of disappointment.?

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I am in the position of renting and wanting to buy. I am very much of the belief that property will be 10-15% cheaper by March. Having said that I am eyeing a property that we viewed that if they drop the price 5%, we will probably buy as it will be affordable and lovely...and detached, and 3 beds etc etc. I will then stick my fingers in my ears and go lalalala every time I hear any news about property prices. I never ever ever want to share a wall/ceiling/floor with other people again. The majority are selfish and noisy. Trampolines are the Bain of modern suburban housing developments. If only we were allowed to use the bouncing little darlings for target practise.

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3 minutes ago, Warlord said:

You have to be mental to buy now the market is about the collapse along with the economy

When exactly will this happen?  and by what amount will house prices collapse by?

 

BTW I'm only asking you so that I can quote this back to you when your predicted "collapse" fails to materialise.

Edited by Martin_JD
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1 minute ago, Martin_JD said:

When exactly will this happen?  and by what amount will house prices collapse by?

 

BTW I'm only asking you so that I can quote this back to you when it fails to materialise.

Quote me as much as like.  Give it 6-12 months. From this Autumn. 

I can't give you exact numbers. Ask @Killer Bunny for forecasts but things aren't going to be pretty once the furlough scheme ends.

 

Edited by Warlord
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Just now, Warlord said:

Quote me as much as like.  Giveit 6-12 months. From this Autumn. 

I can't give you exact numbers. Ask @Killer Bunny for forecasts but things aren't going to be pretty once the furlough scheme ends.

 

Good stuff.  We shall see this time next year where prices are at.  My guess is that you might be a bit disappointed.  

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1 minute ago, Martin_JD said:

Good stuff.  We shall see this time next year where prices are at.  My guess is that you might be a bit disappointed.  

I think you'll be thanking me if you held off on a purchase !

Mass unemployment is about to hit and an  almighty mess.

 

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I'm no expert on the property market but my understanding is:

1) the 89 - 95 crash was the only time UK house prices have fallen by a nominal amount. So, odds are another crash is more likely to be real than nominal.

2) In the aformentioned crash apparantly there were no good properties for sale. Sellers chose to hold on until they were no longer in negative equity or at least, realised it's full 'value'.

So, I guess the thing is: where will you park your cash whilst you wait for the crash? What if interest rates go up in the meantime.... I've been on this site for a long long time. To quote someone (probably from this site) 'A broken clock is right twice a day, but then only for a minute'. 

So true, when will you know the bottom of the market?

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21 minutes ago, Warlord said:

You have to be mental to buy now the market is about the collapse along with the economy

In that case selling something high to buy something lower is the way to go.....quids in.?

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2 hours ago, Badhairday said:

:

1) the 89 - 95 crash was the only time UK house prices have fallen by a nominal amount. So, odds are another crash is more likely to be real than nominal.

The Great Depression, the Long Depression, ww2, ww1 and the black death too.

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3 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

When exactly will this happen?  and by what amount will house prices collapse by?

 

BTW I'm only asking you so that I can quote this back to you when your predicted "collapse" fails to materialise.

Ye Gods, a troll admitting to trolling..... :rolleyes:

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4 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

Good stuff.  We shall see this time next year where prices are at.  My guess is that you might be a bit disappointed.  

And in 5 years?

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4 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

Unemployment will go up, I agree with you there.  Not sure if that will have a significant effect on house prices in this country due to the nature of the jobs most at risk.

?????

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

The Great Depression, the Long Depression, ww2, ww1 and the black death too.

And 4 of the 5 decades of the 2nd half of the 19th C

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6 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

Unemployment will go up, I agree with you there.  Not sure if that will have a significant effect on house prices in this country due to the nature of the jobs most at risk.

If your heart stopped does it have a significant affect on the other parts of the body or just the heart. 

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48 minutes ago, Martin_JD said:

you could waste decades waiting for a crash that never happens.

Property bulls always say this but it doesn't appear to have any actual meaning beyond the old sales technique of applying time pressure to force a sale. You do know that people who haven't bought a house are pursuing careers, hobbies, relationships, raising families, seeing friends etc? In what way is that "wasting decades"?

Edited by Dorkins
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7 hours ago, Badhairday said:

I'm no expert on the property market but my understanding is:

1) the 89 - 95 crash was the only time UK house prices have fallen by a nominal amount. So, odds are another crash is more likely to be real than nominal.

2) In the aformentioned crash apparantly there were no good properties for sale. Sellers chose to hold on until they were no longer in negative equity or at least, realised it's full 'value'.

South east of England. A weird 16 year old who had been looking at the Property section on the local newspaper for 7 years, whilst his parents procrastinated over a house move.

I can remember distinctly that there were *many* decent houses available in 94/95, at 40% less nominally than in 1988/89 at all levels of the market. There were 2 bed semis that had gone from 65k to 38k (my parents house), 3 bed semis on better streets from 95k to 65k (where they moved to), 4 bed detacheds down from 120k to 85k (what they were umming and ahhing over), and awesome 5 bedders in the most posh parts of a pretty decent town down from 180k to 120k (what they they definitely should have bought).

Today those places go for £170k, 280k, 400k and 650k. Bonkers. My parents were very good with money in every other way apart from housing. I told them to keep the 2 bed semi (at that time I don't have a hatred for buy to let like I do today) and buy the 3 bed, or buy the 5 bed. But they were cautious on housing. Not so cautious on shares thankfully.

But yeah, In fact, there was seemingly zero difference in the market liquidity. If people needed to move, they moved.

So 'apparently', the whole of Cambridgeshire and Suffolk was an exception eh?

Edited by Frugal Git
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5 hours ago, Dorkins said:

You do know that people who haven't bought a house are pursuing careers, hobbies, relationships, raising families, seeing friends etc? In what way is that "wasting decades"?

A hundred upvotes to your post Mr Dorkins. 

I think for many people HPI has become some sort of substitute life that compensates for all kinds of other inadequacies such as a lousy marriage, high blood sugar, social interactions that consist mainly of grunting to a neighbor and wondering how the ****** the family can ever move to another location for a better job. 

I've seen how people react to their house falling catastrophically in value before, back in Perth, in Western Australia about 10 years ago ( incidentally house prices in Perth have not yet recovered and are now falling even further) and it was like Margaret Mitchell described the southern plantation owners after the American Civil War. Their entire world had just fallen apart, so they were walking around like the ******ing living dead. ( Not her words of course) 

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12 hours ago, Badhairday said:

I'm no expert on the property market but my understanding is:

1) the 89 - 95 crash was the only time UK house prices have fallen by a nominal amount. So, odds are another crash is more likely to be real than nominal.

2) In the aformentioned crash apparantly there were no good properties for sale. Sellers chose to hold on until they were no longer in negative equity or at least, realised it's full 'value'.

So, I guess the thing is: where will you park your cash whilst you wait for the crash? What if interest rates go up in the meantime.... I've been on this site for a long long time. To quote someone (probably from this site) 'A broken clock is right twice a day, but then only for a minute'. 

So true, when will you know the bottom of the market?

Er in 2008-10 actual Nominal prices fell by between 15-20%. I was around in the early 90s and my parents had a lovely 3 bed detached a 10 minute walk from a commuter station in leafy Sussex. It was 250k in 1990, went down to 150k by 1994. The South East got smashed. HUge swathes of people were in negative equity till the early 00s.

Edited by HovelinHove
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13 hours ago, Warlord said:

You have to be mental to buy now the market is about the collapse along with the economy

Can I please record you saying that and play it in my alarm clock when I wake up every morning. I have been saying the same thing to my friends, but then keep going on Rightmove and then viewing properties and making offers! (Albeit 8% off asking).

Prices will fall. They will fall at least 15%, but at what stage does the government decide to throw the kitchen sink at the property market and make Britain debt slaves forever to rescue it? That is my burning question. How long is it better to hold cash, rather than hold an asset you live in that is falling in value but you can afford? That is the key question for me. The current global establishment will do anything to protect asset prices include destroy our currencies and the value of the money we have saved.

All the time I hold off buying a house I feel like I am playing chicken with a juggernaut.

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13 hours ago, Warlord said:

...things aren't going to be pretty once the furlough scheme ends.

Oh, do you think the furlough scheme is going to end?

23 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

...at what stage does the government decide to throw the kitchen sink at the property market and make Britain debt slaves forever to rescue it?

At every stage, I think.

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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