It is going to be painful, we are not going to get out of this mess clean

[winkie]

11 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

People aren’t spending that much where I live, which is basically where all the people who once commuted are now hiding...Sussex. The pubs are quiet, the shops are quiet, people have got used to staying at home and entertaining themselves differently. I think the impact will be worst in the cities, especially those that rely on commuters and tourists, but everywhere is being hit. People also might have saved money, but I suspect a lot of people are afraid for their jobs so won’t going on any massive splurges.

I will have to go up to London myself though since it is quiet. Fancy going to some galleries while you can see the pictures without a gazillions Chinese tourists standing in the way.

Could be that spending money recklessly when you might have to rely on it later is not a good idea....as you say keeping a little something for when might really need it is a sensible plan of action.....can't beat walking around London on a sunny day, pop into a gallery, stroll along the Thames, take a bus ride......don't forget your sandwiches and some sounds, you never know when might need them.

[qejunkie]

9 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

This is my biggest conundrum. Once prices have dropped 10-15% then houses I really like are very affordable for me with a modest mortgage...but do I hold on even longer when I could buy one completely mortgage free if they drop 30%? When will we know when the bottom is reached? How do we know that the government won’t dream up some scheme to rescue the market? I am p155ing a huge amount up the wall on rent at the moment as I only planned to rent for a year after returning from Canada where I had a huge house with a pool etc (same price as a semi in the south east) so went overboard and rented a country pile (rather than a grotty dump)...very nice during lockdown, but I can’t save anything (not eating my savings though). Really tricky situation coming up in January when the market should be really heading south but when do you grab the falling knife?

Similar situation. However, I would take a 10-15% nominal fall all day long. 

The Bulls would describe us as "cash on the sidelines". 

Edited July 28, 2020 by qejunkie

[Trampa501]

5 hours ago, Neapolitan said:

I was in central London yesterday. Strand/Holborn area. Everything, and when I say everything I mean everything is closed. Hotels, bars, restaurants. The occasional pub with open doors empty or with few customers inside. 
London is falling, I have no idea what the plan is for this huge loss. No idea either about what the plan is with all this empty space in the centre of the city. 
Most of the folks employed in these businesses are Europeans, so they will probably go back after the government will stop paying into their accounts, maybe. 
Mind you, it’s not just about the jobs. These businesses pay rent, maybe to some pension scheme, the circle is broken. 
And this is not a financial crisis, it’s something worse. The financial crisis is yet to be seen. 
 

All of you who think that a -10% by the end of the year is ok should really start to change their mind. 

The hardest-hit areas are those that had the biggest number of tourists and/or office commuters. I walked down Baker Street the other day, and yes, a lot of places were still closed - the Sherlock Homes Museum, various coffee bars and take-away places. Even those that were open (5 guys, Pret, Starbucks) seemed empty. However go to other parts - Brixton, Pimlico, Maida Vale, Kilburn - and things aren't quite so bad. A lot of young folk wfh and able to patronise local businesses. There is a very interesting doughnut effect in London - central areas that relied on tourists/commuters/students for their clientele, have been pulverished. I've not seen Hounslow or Croydon lately, but I suspect things are much the same as ever there.

[Hullabaloo82]

56 minutes ago, MancTom said:

Not totally. E.g my plumber is not short of work - one man outfit, pretty safe for him to work. Can't even get a painter to paint the outside of my house because they are run off their feet. Haven't even paid the gardener who did some work because he said he is too busy to deal with invoicing me! So I suspect people with a trade who do work for the middle class working at home have a rosy future, even plenty of room for new entrants in the market. But the working classes who are Baristas etc are in trouble.

People are still in the honeymoon period at the moment. Fear of job losses and fear of crime that will come with mass unemployment hasn't yet set in so the effect on trades is delayed a bit.

The smart money is going to be in home security. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

5 hours ago, Neapolitan said:

I was in central London yesterday. Strand/Holborn area. Everything, and when I say everything I mean everything is closed. Hotels, bars, restaurants. The occasional pub with open doors empty or with few customers inside. 
London is falling, I have no idea what the plan is for this huge loss.
 

Maybe London is the New Detroit

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_Detroit

Just needs to develop a musical style named after it principle former industry.

The Mowtown sound was the sound of Detroit.

...............Maybe London needs Fintown, to serenade out the decline.

Rather than the Jackson Five, we could have the Natwest Three.

Edited July 28, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[winkie]

1 hour ago, MancTom said:

Not totally. E.g my plumber is not short of work - one man outfit, pretty safe for him to work. Can't even get a painter to paint the outside of my house because they are run off their feet. Haven't even paid the gardener who did some work because he said he is too busy to deal with invoicing me! So I suspect people with a trade who do work for the middle class working at home have a rosy future, even plenty of room for new entrants in the market. But the working classes who are Baristas etc are in trouble.

.....well would you believe it, who would have thought it, the skilled manual jobs are and will be making a comeback because the demand is there, the supply is not.....we looked down upon practical manual skills, did away with technical colleges......now we have a whole generation that have not been taught how to do things for themselves, having to pay others to do it for them.....you couldn't make it up.

[GregBowman]

1 hour ago, MancTom said:

Not totally. E.g my plumber is not short of work - one man outfit, pretty safe for him to work. Can't even get a painter to paint the outside of my house because they are run off their feet. Haven't even paid the gardener who did some work because he said he is too busy to deal with invoicing me! So I suspect people with a trade who do work for the middle class working at home have a rosy future, even plenty of room for new entrants in the market. But the working classes who are Baristas etc are in trouble.

Very true - To me there was a transition bit like a sci fi book from everyone being able to turn their hand to skilled tasks DIY, Car maintenance, understanding fault finding on electrical appliances and so on which was a solid blue collar skill of my era - late fifties to no one overnight it seemed.

Now it would seem that under 40 these are lost arts (its not just because the tech changed you could change the tasks ie reload Windows on your laptop or install your Nest system on your boiler yourself)

So less people have more skilled trade work to do which is great. I became an IT  service engineer before continuing with my own business in IT outsourcing so was always thankful for that aptitude. Served me well in life.and it could a youngster today

 

 

[Trampa501]

There seems to be a lot of extra building work going off in London - widening pathways so people can presumably keep a reasonable social distance. On one hand, this seems a positive way to spend money - provide work for the road construction sector, and make things safer for visitors. Trouble is, that extra walking space is no longer needed - the tourists and office workers aren't here.

[winkie]

 

[Lenelby]

1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

This is my biggest conundrum. Once prices have dropped 10-15% then houses I really like are very affordable for me with a modest mortgage...but do I hold on even longer when I could buy one completely mortgage free if they drop 30%? When will we know when the bottom is reached? How do we know that the government won’t dream up some scheme to rescue the market? I am p155ing a huge amount up the wall on rent at the moment as I only planned to rent for a year after returning from Canada where I had a huge house with a pool etc (same price as a semi in the south east) so went overboard and rented a country pile (rather than a grotty dump)...very nice during lockdown, but I can’t save anything (not eating my savings though). Really tricky situation coming up in January when the market should be really heading south but when do you grab the falling knife?

Only monkeys pick bottoms as they say.

When I bought back in 2003 I had similar concerns as prices had increased a lot. I had already been guzzumped a year earlier. Some people thought I was ‘brave’.

Best you can do I think is find somewhere that you really like, you will live there for a long time, you can comfortably afford and don’t overpay for it. 

[GregBowman]

4 minutes ago, winkie said:

.....well would you believe it, who would have thought it, the skilled manual jobs are and will be making a comeback because the demand is there, the supply is not.....we looked down upon practical manual skills, did away with technical colleges......now we have a whole generation that have not been taught how to do things for themselves, having to pay others to do it for them.....you couldn't make it up.

We did Winkie but in reality they never went away just weren't considered fashionable. The British academic system has always looked down on trade.

I get a deep satisfaction out of the fact  that my industry tech is hollowing out the jobs of many people who still do - sorry if that sounds nasty but chickens come home to roost.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 minute ago, GregBowman said:

Very true - To me there was a transition bit like a sci fi book from everyone being able to turn their hand to skilled tasks DIY, Car maintenance, understanding fault finding on electrical appliances and so on which was a solid blue collar skill of my era - late fifties to no one overnight it seemed.

Now it would seem that under 40 these are lost arts (its not just because the tech changed you could change the tasks ie reload Windows on your laptop or install your Nest system on your boiler yourself)

So less people have more skilled trade work to do which is great. I became an IT  service engineer before continuing with my own business in IT outsourcing so was always thankful for that aptitude. Served me well in life.and it could a youngster today

 

 

 

I'd quite fancy getting back to some real engineering. Perhaps IoT control devices, can use both my IT/ML and electronics skills.

[GregBowman]

22 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

The hardest-hit areas are those that had the biggest number of tourists and/or office commuters. I walked down Baker Street the other day, and yes, a lot of places were still closed - the Sherlock Homes Museum, various coffee bars and take-away places. Even those that were open (5 guys, Pret, Starbucks) seemed empty. However go to other parts - Brixton, Pimlico, Maida Vale, Kilburn - and things aren't quite so bad. A lot of young folk wfh and able to patronise local businesses. There is a very interesting doughnut effect in London - central areas that relied on tourists/commuters/students for their clientele, have been pulverished. I've not seen Hounslow or Croydon lately, but I suspect things are much the same as ever there.

I ride every so often from Just North of London the doughnut is now this:

Affluent Home counties - vibe miles better people more friendly more people around. Pubs open but doing the social distance bit so nice atmosphere but not so manic

Zones 6-4 - Pretty much as they were to my eye. Just school and college kids missing but most shops open slight increase in pedestrian traffic

Zones 3/2 really vibey almost like an estate agents brochure thinking Camden Town, Kentish Town, Tufnell Park

Zone 1 - Dead as a dodo 

So looking at all that catastrophic for central London but in all the other areas economic activity is buoyant so overall probably not as down as it looks  

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by GregBowman

[Peter Hun]

3 hours ago, Postman said:

This is what Boris Johnson's push to get everybody, 'back to work' is about, commercial property. He couldn't care less about sandwich shops and florists failing. Lots of his rich mates and pension funds are invested in commercial property and are sh1tting their pants. 

Pity he didn't take COVID seriously and put us in this mess.

[Peter Hun]

3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It what you want to see is open, now would be a great time to visit. I am in London 1 or 2 days a week and it is really pleasant without the crowds/traffic. 

I'd like to visit, but don't trust public transport. And the government forced London transport to expand the congestion charge to 10pm and include weekends to raise money.

Apparently it been raised to £15 because of the severe congestion in Central London. Hows that looking?

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

3 hours ago, Postman said:

This is what Boris Johnson's push to get everybody, 'back to work' is about, commercial property. He couldn't care less about sandwich shops and florists failing. Lots of his rich mates and pension funds are invested in commercial property and are sh1tting their pants. 

Indeed. Small business will just move to more localised outlets where people work from home. All that commercial property and extortionate rent is over. Brexit was for the elites. Covid is for the plebiscite. 

[Confusion of VIs]

33 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

I'd like to visit, but don't trust public transport. And the government forced London transport to expand the congestion charge to 10pm and include weekends to raise money.

Apparently it been raised to £15 because of the severe congestion in Central London. Hows that looking?

There is no severe congestion it is still pretty quiet , the charge was raised because of fears that people would use their cars to get to work. In reality the parking charges would be a bigger factor for most people.

My drive in from South Croydon to near City Thameslink takes 50 mins with no congestion charge for EVs.   I do also use PT which is still very quiet and feels safe enough with enough space to avoid having to sit near other people.  

Edited July 28, 2020 by Confusion of VIs

[smash]

Places (bars and restaurants) are open on a big chunk of soho and the area around Old Compton Street is closed to traffic in the evening and nearly all day at the weekend. People dining out on the street, very pleasant actually. All works this time of year, but in a couple of months probably not.

[Fromage Frais]

7 hours ago, Neapolitan said:

I was in central London yesterday. Strand/Holborn area. Everything, and when I say everything I mean everything is closed. Hotels, bars, restaurants. The occasional pub with open doors empty or with few customers inside. 
London is falling, I have no idea what the plan is for this huge loss. No idea either about what the plan is with all this empty space in the centre of the city. 
Most of the folks employed in these businesses are Europeans, so they will probably go back after the government will stop paying into their accounts, maybe. 
Mind you, it’s not just about the jobs. These businesses pay rent, maybe to some pension scheme, the circle is broken. 
And this is not a financial crisis, it’s something worse. The financial crisis is yet to be seen. 
 

All of you who think that a -10% by the end of the year is ok should really start to change their mind. 

Dont worry apparently the folks there are going to sell and move to Norfolk in the 1.3 million houses that seem to be more common than 30k a year jobs locally

[Fromage Frais]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

.....well would you believe it, who would have thought it, the skilled manual jobs are and will be making a comeback because the demand is there, the supply is not.....we looked down upon practical manual skills, did away with technical colleges......now we have a whole generation that have not been taught how to do things for themselves, having to pay others to do it for them.....you couldn't make it up.

Was chatting a few years back engineering company did not completely understand but some high value components and precision welding etc and associated machines.

Olden days = apprentices > trained > welders

Now > Eastern Europe

So the training was canned as apprentices did not work out, I presume they will either have to pay the welders more now and get visas or restart the training schemes.

[MuayThai18]

4 hours ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

Capitalism's Achilles heel is that it has no answer to a genuine lack of demand,

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of economics. Price is driven by demand, not the other way around. Demand increases when price decreases. Lack of demand will eventually drive the price down, the trouble is government intervention. They are doing everything they can to prop up prices right now, which is a flawed approach but they have to be seen to be doing something. 

However the market always corrects itself. When the lack of demand drives prices lower, the most inefficient suppliers with the lowest margins will leave the market. Again, the problem is government intervention - it lets the inefficient suppliers stay in the market and compete 

[Social Justice League]

1 hour ago, MuayThai18 said:

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of economics. Price is driven by demand, not the other way around. Demand increases when price decreases. Lack of demand will eventually drive the price down, the trouble is government intervention. They are doing everything they can to prop up prices right now, which is a flawed approach but they have to be seen to be doing something. 

However the market always corrects itself. When the lack of demand drives prices lower, the most inefficient suppliers with the lowest margins will leave the market. Again, the problem is government intervention - it lets the inefficient suppliers stay in the market and compete 

Yeap and why does a 'Tory' govenment believe in saving zombies over a fooking free market?

The current lot shouldn't be called 'Tory', because they aren't.  Just a shower of halfwits who have no clue what to do. 

They provide amusement every day though as they lurch from one fook up to next.

[hp72]

22 hours ago, The Spaniard said:

And if UN Agendas 2021 and 2030 are indeed the playbooks for the blatant and ever accelerating social engineering, people will be 'encouraged' to depopulate rural areas and occupy them.

Not quite sure why but populations across many countries are being dramatically forecast lower...

http://www.deagel.com/country/United-States-of-America_c0001.aspx

2017

Population: 327 million

 

Forecast 2025

Population: 100million

??

[The Spaniard]

13 minutes ago, hp72 said:

Not quite sure why but populations across many countries are being dramatically forecast lower...

http://www.deagel.com/country/United-States-of-America_c0001.aspx

2017

Population: 327 million

 

Forecast 2025

Population: 100million

??

That website has the UK population declining to 15M by 2025.

http://www.deagel.com/country/United-Kingdom_c0209.aspx

Either it is a spoof or they know something big that we don't.

[hp72]

7 minutes ago, The Spaniard said:

That website has the UK population declining to 15M by 2025.

http://www.deagel.com/country/United-Kingdom_c0209.aspx

Either it is a spoof or they know something big that we don't.

Hopefully the former... 

But... " 

Here is a partial list of known Deagel partners and clients, according to their own website:

• National Security Agency
• North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO – OTAN)
• Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
• OSCE
• Russian Defense Procurement Agency
• Stratfor
• The World Bank
• United Nations (UN)

This highly regarded intelligence organization has a grim outlook for the United States in the coming years including a 78% decrease in population. In fact, it predicts a similar, cataclysmic fate for the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, Japan, and Denmark, and more U.S. allied nations:"

Not quite sure what to think.tbh