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It is going to be painful, we are not going to get out of this mess clean


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I was in central London yesterday. Strand/Holborn area. Everything, and when I say everything I mean everything is closed. Hotels, bars, restaurants. The occasional pub with open doors empty or with few customers inside. 
London is falling, I have no idea what the plan is for this huge loss. No idea either about what the plan is with all this empty space in the centre of the city. 
Most of the folks employed in these businesses are Europeans, so they will probably go back after the government will stop paying into their accounts, maybe. 
Mind you, it’s not just about the jobs. These businesses pay rent, maybe to some pension scheme, the circle is broken. 
And this is not a financial crisis, it’s something worse. The financial crisis is yet to be seen. 
 

All of you who think that a -10% by the end of the year is ok should really start to change their mind. 

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40 minutes ago, Neapolitan said:

I was in central London yesterday. Strand/Holborn area. Everything, and when I say everything I mean everything is closed. Hotels, bars, restaurants. The occasional pub with open doors empty or with few customers inside. 
London is falling, I have no idea what the plan is for this huge loss. No idea either about what the plan is with all this empty space in the centre of the city. 
Most of the folks employed in these businesses are Europeans, so they will probably go back after the government will stop paying into their accounts, maybe. 
Mind you, it’s not just about the jobs. These businesses pay rent, maybe to some pension scheme, the circle is broken. 
And this is not a financial crisis, it’s something worse. The financial crisis is yet to be seen. 
 

All of you who think that a -10% by the end of the year is ok should really start to change their mind. 

Not great when "surplus" taxes from London funds spending in about 75% of the country.   

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Not only the workers not travelling into town, instead working from home hopefully spending money closer to where they live in their own local shops and pubs and eating establishments, saving big on season tickets......it is tourists or the lack of them, tourists staying at home.....maybe more Brits might now take a short break in London rather than Europe? What are the chances of that?;)

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1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

London is falling, I have no idea what the plan is for this huge loss. No idea either about what the plan is with all this empty space in the centre of the city. 

There is no loss as the government is borrowing huge sums of money and spending it to compensate business owners, rich landlords, banks, companies etc. Riches will get even richer. Middle class will pay for this spending spree with much higher taxes.

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It will be brutal and painful.  What scares me is when there are unfair 'winners' and 'losers', that's how you start to build blame on 'others' and that is a dark road indeed.

 

You can only protect yourself so much. Remove debt, spend well within your means, have a cushion.  Change your mindset to enjoy the natural world and don't give any political support to the ****ers in charge.

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This is what Boris Johnson's push to get everybody, 'back to work' is about, commercial property. He couldn't care less about sandwich shops and florists failing. Lots of his rich mates and pension funds are invested in commercial property and are sh1tting their pants. 

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59 minutes ago, Neapolitan said:

Planning will need to change. All these offices to be converted into flats. 

And if UN Agendas 2021 and 2030 are indeed the playbooks for the blatant and ever accelerating social engineering, people will be 'encouraged' to depopulate rural areas and occupy them.

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26 minutes ago, Postman said:

This is what Boris Johnson's push to get everybody, 'back to work' is about, commercial property. He couldn't care less about sandwich shops and florists failing. Lots of his rich mates and pension funds are invested in commercial property and are sh1tting their pants. 

Agree......many small business and individual family sandwich shops were priced out of the City and West End over last 20 years......gone long ago, rents and rates priced them out...;)

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33 minutes ago, AAA said:

There is no loss as the government is borrowing huge sums of money and spending it to compensate business owners, rich landlords, banks, companies etc. Riches will get even richer. Middle class will pay for this spending spree with much higher taxes.

Eventually the middle - much who have survived on cheap credit - will start to opt out when they realise there's not even a middle class worth hanging on to.

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Not only the workers not travelling into town, instead working from home hopefully spending money closer to where they live in their own local shops and pubs and eating establishments, saving big on season tickets......it is tourists or the lack of them, tourists staying at home.....maybe more Brits might now take a short break in London rather than Europe? What are the chances of that?;)

It what you want to see is open, now would be a great time to visit. I am in London 1 or 2 days a week and it is really pleasant without the crowds/traffic. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It what you want to see is open, now would be a great time to visit. I am in London 1 or 2 days a week and it is really pleasant without the crowds/traffic. 

 

Lived there 50 years, visit often......sitting top deck 134 tottenham ct rd to north finchley bus depot....start of line to end of line.;)

 

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They don't know what to do...there's no play book for this to look up. They will probably try the 2008 tricks of QE but IR's are so low now they cant use those.

They don't know what levers to pull/push, what wheels to turn or what buttons to press...they are probably frozen with fear incase they make it worse (ala Spanish Quarantine).

Imagine being a total novice in the bowels of an old steam powered warship that's just been hit and the lights have gone off... and there are no "old salts" to guide you in your response. That's Sunak and Johnson right now and don't let anyone convince you otherwise.

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Capitalism's Achilles heel is that it has no answer to a genuine lack of demand, yet that is what we have now. Demand for city centre office accomodation has been wiped out, demand for complimentary services will follow (already has, arguably). 

Here's some thoughts on the future;

- we've got another few years yet of this virus being a major cause for concern. We're slightly lulled into a false sense of security right now but it will be back again if not this coming winter then the next. No vaccine is likely to be 100% effective so we will have more lock down yet begore we get to something approaching herd immunity. 

- ability to work from home or not is about to become the new class divide. Areas with a high proportion of middle class and up working from home able to sustain a nice, vibrant high street will become yet more expensive and, on the positive side, mop up some of the loss in demand for complimentary services in city centres. 

- contrastingly, areas with a majority of manual or low skilled labour prone to lock down interruption will suffer. Government won't keep putting its hand in its pocket forever. Unemployment will rise, as will crime and poverty. The few people left with work in these areas will jump ship to an enclave, pricing out the minority unemployed renters in the nicer areas who will swap. 

- police and services may increasingly focus on the nicer areas (where the votes come from) and "write off" poor areas. I can even see private security becoming a thing (especially in "desirable" urban areas, as well as temperature checks to get into some areas. Certain neighbourhoods might become "home workers only" with workers bussed in to serve in the shops subject to increasingly draconian security measures on entry. 

- this will of course have a catastrophic effect on property prices with some areas be coming worthless and others impossibly expensive. 

Bit far fetched? Maybe, but then try explaining today's world to 2019 you. 

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Lived there 50 years, visit often......sitting top deck 134 tottenham ct rd to north finchley bus depot....start of line to end of line.;)

 

The 134 best bus Route through our old stomping grounds - There is only one part of London worth  being in North ??

 

1574417068063_b_254.jpg

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1 hour ago, Roman Roady said:

They don't know what to do...there's no play book for this to look up. They will probably try the 2008 tricks of QE but IR's are so low now they cant use those.

They don't know what levers to pull/push, what wheels to turn or what buttons to press...they are probably frozen with fear incase they make it worse (ala Spanish Quarantine).

Imagine being a total novice in the bowels of an old steam powered warship that's just been hit and the lights have gone off... and there are no "old salts" to guide you in your response. That's Sunak and Johnson right now and don't let anyone convince you otherwise.

Brilliantly put. I voted for them as well, but Boris has proved completely incapable of adapting to this crisis, and Sunak is just a Goldmans man. Very dissapointing.

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3 hours ago, winkie said:

Not only the workers not travelling into town, instead working from home hopefully spending money closer to where they live in their own local shops and pubs and eating establishments, saving big on season tickets......it is tourists or the lack of them, tourists staying at home.....maybe more Brits might now take a short break in London rather than Europe? What are the chances of that?;)

People aren’t spending that much where I live, which is basically where all the people who once commuted are now hiding...Sussex. The pubs are quiet, the shops are quiet, people have got used to staying at home and entertaining themselves differently. I think the impact will be worst in the cities, especially those that rely on commuters and tourists, but everywhere is being hit. People also might have saved money, but I suspect a lot of people are afraid for their jobs so won’t going on any massive splurges.

I will have to go up to London myself though since it is quiet. Fancy going to some galleries while you can see the pictures without a gazillions Chinese tourists standing in the way.

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58 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

Capitalism's Achilles heel is that it has no answer to a genuine lack of demand, yet that is what we have now. Demand for city centre office accomodation has been wiped out, demand for complimentary services will follow (already has, arguably). 

Here's some thoughts on the future;

- we've got another few years yet of this virus being a major cause for concern. We're slightly lulled into a false sense of security right now but it will be back again if not this coming winter then the next. No vaccine is likely to be 100% effective so we will have more lock down yet begore we get to something approaching herd immunity. 

- ability to work from home or not is about to become the new class divide. Areas with a high proportion of middle class and up working from home able to sustain a nice, vibrant high street will become yet more expensive and, on the positive side, mop up some of the loss in demand for complimentary services in city centres. 

 

Not totally. E.g my plumber is not short of work - one man outfit, pretty safe for him to work. Can't even get a painter to paint the outside of my house because they are run off their feet. Haven't even paid the gardener who did some work because he said he is too busy to deal with invoicing me! So I suspect people with a trade who do work for the middle class working at home have a rosy future, even plenty of room for new entrants in the market. But the working classes who are Baristas etc are in trouble.

Edited by MancTom
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4 hours ago, Neapolitan said:

And this is not a financial crisis, it’s something worse. The financial crisis is yet to be seen. 

All of you who think that a -10% by the end of the year is ok should really start to change their mind. 

This is my biggest conundrum. Once prices have dropped 10-15% then houses I really like are very affordable for me with a modest mortgage...but do I hold on even longer when I could buy one completely mortgage free if they drop 30%? When will we know when the bottom is reached? How do we know that the government won’t dream up some scheme to rescue the market? I am p155ing a huge amount up the wall on rent at the moment as I only planned to rent for a year after returning from Canada where I had a huge house with a pool etc (same price as a semi in the south east) so went overboard and rented a country pile (rather than a grotty dump)...very nice during lockdown, but I can’t save anything (not eating my savings though). Really tricky situation coming up in January when the market should be really heading south but when do you grab the falling knife?

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  • 419 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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