the_duke_of_hazzard Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 https://zwischenzugs.com/2020/07/25/the-halving-of-the-centre-covid-and-its-effect-on-london-property/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
winkie Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 Only a small island, nowhere is that far away.....building into the sky will see space in the sky becomes cheaper.......do we really need HS2 north to south, when west to east has more going for it and would be more useful. Many of the jobs that seem to congregate in the capital are public sector and civil servant jobs, might be a good idea to distribute those types of jobs around the different areas of the country.......give others a chance to buy and live more cheaply without so much wasteful travel. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Trump Invective Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 Interesting battle ahead between the need for commercial property developers to retain their shirts by switching to residential, and the eternal needs for residential housing to be sky high. Ultimately, the need for hpi forever will win the day of course, but will that be acceptable, politically Quote Link to post Share on other sites
24gray24 Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 The beautiful people are all in London. And the decision makers are also in London. No one is going to move out to the provinces voluntarily. And if the government tries to push out a few departments to, say, Middlesborough, the good ones will move and the time servers will sit in Middlesborough watching their departmental budget being cut every year as they lose their influence. All this "news" about London emptying out is overblown IMO. If prices fall, it will increase the attraction immediately. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
winkie Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 38 minutes ago, Trump Invective said: Interesting battle ahead between the need for commercial property developers to retain their shirts by switching to residential, and the eternal needs for residential housing to be sky high. Ultimately, the need for hpi forever will win the day of course, but will that be acceptable, politically It is the rate of house price inflation that is the issue......below CPI and RPI, is still inflation. Â Quote Link to post Share on other sites
winkie Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 3 minutes ago, 24gray24 said: The beautiful people are all in London. And the decision makers are also in London. No one is going to move out to the provinces voluntarily. And if the government tries to push out a few departments to, say, Middlesborough, the good ones will move and the time servers will sit in Middlesborough watching their departmental budget being cut every year as they lose their influence. All this "news" about London emptying out is overblown IMO. If prices fall, it will increase the attraction immediately. What is it about Middlesborough......not top of the list, York first. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
24gray24 Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 4 minutes ago, winkie said: What is it about Middlesborough......not top of the list, York first.  The usual propaganda would be to suggest somewhere nice first to get the staff used to the idea, then switch it to somewhere less salubrious which is a key marginal. I picked Middlesbrough because you can buy a house there for £5000, so it's clearly in need of some levelling up. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Trampa501 Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 Not sure I'd put York as a number one destination to live, either. Flooded out every couple of years? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
winkie Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 46 minutes ago, Trampa501 said: Not sure I'd put York as a number one destination to live, either. Flooded out every couple of years? https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/civil-servants-looking-homes-harrogate-if-government-departments-move-york-2911799 Â Quote Link to post Share on other sites
captainb Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 Are we not building hong kong on thames? Home office estimates 200k will take up the offer given their past history with estimates lets say 2million. 90% of them will want to be zone 1 and 2 london Quote Link to post Share on other sites
winkie Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 5 minutes ago, captainb said: Are we not building hong kong on thames? Home office estimates 200k will take up the offer given their past history with estimates lets say 2million. 90% of them will want to be zone 1 and 2 london Is that good or bad?.....what makes you think 90% would want to be in zones 1&2? How much money will they bring with them?......does the money make a difference? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 37 minutes ago, winkie said: https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/civil-servants-looking-homes-harrogate-if-government-departments-move-york-2911799 Â Well of course they do. Harrogate is where people live in the North who don't really want to live in the North. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
captainb Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 1 hour ago, winkie said: Is that good or bad?.....what makes you think 90% would want to be in zones 1&2? How much money will they bring with them?......does the money make a difference? Because that is where the cantonese community currently is and frankly you don't tend to move from a metropolis like Hong Kong to Middlesbrough. As for money who knows... HK property prices make london seem cheap so selling up and moving is doable Quote Link to post Share on other sites
A17 Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 People who are hoping to move way out of London and work-from-home permanently should be cautious of what they wish for. Right now it seems to be the perfect arbitrage - continue to earn your London salary but pay far less for accommodation! However, companies will soon question why they are paying higher salaries, when they are not having to attract/keep people in London. And going forward, why would they pay a UK salary when they could pay an Eastern Europe/Asian salary? This pandemic will fully expose the middle class to globalization, fifty years after the working class experienced it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
winkie Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 1 hour ago, captainb said: Because that is where the cantonese community currently is and frankly you don't tend to move from a metropolis like Hong Kong to Middlesbrough. As for money who knows... HK property prices make london seem cheap so selling up and moving is doable Great.....good luck to them.? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MARTINX9 Posted July 25 Report Share Posted July 25 1 hour ago, winkie said: Great.....good luck to them.? Perhaps it should be a condition of their migration that they move to deprived areas in the north, Wales or Scotland. Just like Australia or Canada or NZ do - they don’t want or need more people in Sydney, Melbourne, Vancouver or Auckland. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Killer Bunny Posted July 26 Report Share Posted July 26 19 hours ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said: https://zwischenzugs.com/2020/07/25/the-halving-of-the-centre-covid-and-its-effect-on-london-property/ Interesting read.He’s quite wrong that house prices ANYWHERE can rise given the biggest recession since the 1930s AND mortgage rates will not fall, to stabilise. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Posted July 26 Report Share Posted July 26 50 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said: Interesting read.He’s quite wrong that house prices ANYWHERE can rise given the biggest recession since the 1930s AND mortgage rates will not fall, to stabilise. Given the blog, he's not a finance guy, he's a successful IT guy who lives in London. Maybe his world view influences his financial predictions. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
stuckmojo Posted July 26 Report Share Posted July 26 17 hours ago, captainb said: Because that is where the cantonese community currently is and frankly you don't tend to move from a metropolis like Hong Kong to Middlesbrough. As for money who knows... HK property prices make london seem cheap so selling up and moving is doable HK's have been investing money into London property for a long time. Some will be able to move, but with an exodus and falling prices there, not sure what they can do about raising capital over here. Maybe if, IF, China decides to prop up Hong Kong like a paper tiger and put all their rich people there. Who knows. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Trampa501 Posted July 26 Report Share Posted July 26 21 hours ago, captainb said: Because that is where the cantonese community currently is and frankly you don't tend to move from a metropolis like Hong Kong to Middlesbrough. As for money who knows... HK property prices make london seem cheap so selling up and moving is doable Yep. Even places like Leytonstone or Colindale may be a hard sell to HK Chinese. More likely they'll hover up property Thames-side, not just Canary Wharf but new developments in Vauxhall/Battersea/Wandsworth. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
captainb Posted July 26 Report Share Posted July 26 8 hours ago, stuckmojo said: HK's have been investing money into London property for a long time. Some will be able to move, but with an exodus and falling prices there, not sure what they can do about raising capital over here. Maybe if, IF, China decides to prop up Hong Kong like a paper tiger and put all their rich people there. Who knows. Prices would have to fall a lot to not be able to afford london given how low gbp is. No sign of that yet. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/12/hong-kong-average-house-price-hits-1point2-million.html Quote Link to post Share on other sites
stuckmojo Posted July 26 Report Share Posted July 26 30 minutes ago, captainb said: Prices would have to fall a lot to not be able to afford london given how low gbp is. No sign of that yet. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/12/hong-kong-average-house-price-hits-1point2-million.html Agreed. But if there's an exodus, it will take the same amount of mainland Chinese to fill the gaps. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
spyguy Posted July 26 Report Share Posted July 26 (edited) On 25/07/2020 at 13:54, 24gray24 said: The beautiful people are all in London. And the decision makers are also in London. No one is going to move out to the provinces voluntarily. And if the government tries to push out a few departments to, say, Middlesborough, the good ones will move and the time servers will sit in Middlesborough watching their departmental budget being cut every year as they lose their influence. All this "news" about London emptying out is overblown IMO. If prices fall, it will increase the attraction immediately. London has emptied. Foreign born population is 50%+ Why spend so much UK tax on Lonfon when the emptied of voters. Edited July 26 by spyguy Quote Link to post Share on other sites
24gray24 Posted July 26 Report Share Posted July 26 China could just do nothing for a while and it will all settle down. Ie boil the frogs a bit more slowly for a while. I wouldn't bank on hkers saving London property prices anyway. There are 10 million houses that need to change hands for half the price long term (roughly). That's either massive inflation or massive deflation. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted July 29 Author Report Share Posted July 29 On 26/07/2020 at 06:50, Killer Bunny said: Interesting read.He’s quite wrong that house prices ANYWHERE can rise given the biggest recession since the 1930s AND mortgage rates will not fall, to stabilise. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/fears-fleeing-londoners-will-drive-regional-house-prices/amp/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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