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The Halving of the Centre - Covid and its Effect on London Property (50% falls?)


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Only a small island, nowhere is that far away.....building into the sky will see space in the sky becomes cheaper.......do we really need HS2 north to south, when west to east has more going for it and would be more useful.

Many of the jobs that seem to congregate in the capital are public sector and civil servant jobs, might be a good idea to distribute those types of jobs around the different areas of the country.......give others a chance to buy and live more cheaply without so much wasteful travel. ;)

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Interesting battle ahead between the need for commercial property developers to retain their shirts by switching to residential, and the eternal needs for residential housing to be sky high. Ultimately, the need for hpi forever will win the day of course, but will that be acceptable, politically

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The beautiful people are all in London.  And the decision makers are also in London. 

No one is going to move out to the provinces voluntarily.

And if the government tries to push out a few departments to, say, Middlesborough, the good ones will move and the time servers will sit in Middlesborough watching their departmental budget being cut every year as they lose their influence. 

All this "news" about London emptying out is overblown IMO. If prices fall, it will increase the attraction immediately.

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38 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

Interesting battle ahead between the need for commercial property developers to retain their shirts by switching to residential, and the eternal needs for residential housing to be sky high. Ultimately, the need for hpi forever will win the day of course, but will that be acceptable, politically

It is the rate of house price inflation that is the issue......below CPI and RPI, is still inflation.;)

 

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3 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

The beautiful people are all in London.  And the decision makers are also in London. 

No one is going to move out to the provinces voluntarily.

And if the government tries to push out a few departments to, say, Middlesborough, the good ones will move and the time servers will sit in Middlesborough watching their departmental budget being cut every year as they lose their influence. 

All this "news" about London emptying out is overblown IMO. If prices fall, it will increase the attraction immediately.

What is it about Middlesborough......not top of the list, York first.;)

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4 minutes ago, winkie said:

What is it about Middlesborough......not top of the list, York first.;)

 The usual propaganda would be to suggest somewhere nice first to get the staff used to the idea, then switch it to somewhere less salubrious which is a key marginal. 

I picked Middlesbrough because you can buy a house there for £5000, so it's clearly in need of some levelling up. 

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Are we not building hong kong on thames? 

Home office estimates 200k will take up the offer given their past history with estimates lets say 2million. 90% of them will want to be zone 1 and 2 london 

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5 minutes ago, captainb said:

Are we not building hong kong on thames? 

Home office estimates 200k will take up the offer given their past history with estimates lets say 2million. 90% of them will want to be zone 1 and 2 london 

Is that good or bad?.....what makes you think 90% would want to be in zones 1&2?

How much money will they bring with them?......does the money make a difference?;)

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Is that good or bad?.....what makes you think 90% would want to be in zones 1&2?

How much money will they bring with them?......does the money make a difference?;)

Because that is where the cantonese community currently is and frankly you don't tend to move from a metropolis like Hong Kong to Middlesbrough. 

As for money who knows... HK property prices make london seem cheap so selling up and moving is doable

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People who are hoping to move way out of London and work-from-home permanently should be cautious of what they wish for. Right now it seems to be the perfect arbitrage - continue to earn your London salary but pay far less for accommodation! However, companies will soon question why they are paying higher salaries, when they are not having to attract/keep people in London. And going forward, why would they pay a UK salary when they could pay an Eastern Europe/Asian salary?

This pandemic will fully expose the middle class to globalization, fifty years after the working class experienced it. 

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1 hour ago, captainb said:

Because that is where the cantonese community currently is and frankly you don't tend to move from a metropolis like Hong Kong to Middlesbrough. 

As for money who knows... HK property prices make london seem cheap so selling up and moving is doable

Great.....good luck to them.?

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Great.....good luck to them.?

Perhaps it should be a condition of their migration that they move to deprived areas in the north, Wales or Scotland.

Just like Australia or Canada or NZ do - they don’t want or need more people in Sydney, Melbourne, Vancouver or Auckland.

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19 hours ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

Interesting read.
He’s quite wrong that house prices ANYWHERE can rise given the biggest recession since the 1930s AND mortgage rates will not fall, to stabilise.

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50 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

Interesting read.
He’s quite wrong that house prices ANYWHERE can rise given the biggest recession since the 1930s AND mortgage rates will not fall, to stabilise.

Given the blog, he's not a finance guy, he's a successful IT guy who lives in London. Maybe his world view influences his financial predictions.

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17 hours ago, captainb said:

Because that is where the cantonese community currently is and frankly you don't tend to move from a metropolis like Hong Kong to Middlesbrough. 

As for money who knows... HK property prices make london seem cheap so selling up and moving is doable

HK's have been investing money into London property for a long time. Some will be able to move, but with an exodus and falling prices there, not sure what they can do about raising capital over here. Maybe if, IF, China decides to prop up Hong Kong like a paper tiger and put all their rich people there. Who knows. 

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21 hours ago, captainb said:

Because that is where the cantonese community currently is and frankly you don't tend to move from a metropolis like Hong Kong to Middlesbrough. 

As for money who knows... HK property prices make london seem cheap so selling up and moving is doable

Yep. Even places like Leytonstone or Colindale may be a hard sell to HK Chinese. More likely they'll hover up property Thames-side, not just Canary Wharf but new developments in Vauxhall/Battersea/Wandsworth.

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8 hours ago, stuckmojo said:

HK's have been investing money into London property for a long time. Some will be able to move, but with an exodus and falling prices there, not sure what they can do about raising capital over here. Maybe if, IF, China decides to prop up Hong Kong like a paper tiger and put all their rich people there. Who knows. 

Prices would have to fall a lot to not be able to afford london given how low gbp is. No sign of that yet. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/12/hong-kong-average-house-price-hits-1point2-million.html

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On 25/07/2020 at 13:54, 24gray24 said:

The beautiful people are all in London.  And the decision makers are also in London. 

No one is going to move out to the provinces voluntarily.

And if the government tries to push out a few departments to, say, Middlesborough, the good ones will move and the time servers will sit in Middlesborough watching their departmental budget being cut every year as they lose their influence. 

All this "news" about London emptying out is overblown IMO. If prices fall, it will increase the attraction immediately.

London has emptied.

Foreign born population is 50%+

Why spend so much UK tax on Lonfon when the emptied of voters.

Edited by spyguy
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China could just do nothing for a while and it will all settle down. 

Ie boil the frogs a bit more slowly for a while. 

I wouldn't bank on hkers saving London property prices anyway. There are 10 million houses that need to change hands for half the price long term (roughly). That's either massive  inflation or massive deflation. 

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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