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Historical Repo Stats

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Guest wrongmove

Anyone know where we can get historical repo stats?

Post from KoN on TMF gives the CML stats for the last 35 years

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9805803

The figures are reproduced below (but difficult to read...)

Repos (as measured by CML) peaked in '91 at 75,540 or 0.77% of existing mortgages. They are now at 10,250, or 0.09%. This is up sharply from last year (which had the lowest percentage since the 70s), but still a long below the early 90s.

Year Mortgages Repos %

1970 4,171,000 3760 0.09

1971 4,506,000 2800 0.06

1972 4,770,000 1760 0.04

1973 4,862,000 1220 0.03

1974 4,910,000 3290 0.07

1975 5,076,000 4870 0.10

1976 5,322,000 4950 0.09

1977 5,582,000 4680 0.08

1978 5,896,000 4130 0.07

1979 6,058,000 2910 0.05

1980 6,210,000 3480 0.06

1981 6,336,000 4870 0.08

1982 6,518,000 6860 0.11

1983 6,846,000 8420 0.12

1984 7,313,000 12400 0.17

1985 7,717,000 19300 0.25

1986 8,138,000 24090 0.30

1987 8,283,000 26390 0.32

1988 8,564,000 18510 0.22

1989 9,125,000 15810 0.17

1990 9,415,000 43890 0.47

1991 9,815,000 75540 0.77

1992 9,922,000 68540 0.69

1993 10,137,000 58540 0.58

1994 10,410,000 49210 0.47

1995 10,521,000 49410 0.47

1996 10,637,000 42560 0.40

1997 10,738,000 32770 0.31

1998 10,821,000 33870 0.31

1999 10,982,000 29990 0.27

2000 11,173,000 22870 0.20

2001 11,270,000 17310 0.15

2002 11,364,000 11970 0.11

2003 11,452,000 7700 0.07

2004 11,512,000 6030 0.05

2005 11,591,000 10250 0.09

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I've met a few people who were forced sellers, and have heard of a few more. In the boom years it was easy to sell quickly without resorting to the BMV specialists - therefore no need for repossesion. I'd have thought that the only people who would get repo'd at present would be those with large debts who just give up. Wait until prices have fallen a bit more and the figures will increase.

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I've met a few people who were forced sellers, and have heard of a few more. In the boom years it was easy to sell quickly without resorting to the BMV specialists - therefore no need for repossesion. I'd have thought that the only people who would get repo'd at present would be those with large debts who just give up. Wait until prices have fallen a bit more and the figures will increase.

Also there is another ratio

Its not exactly official, but for every repo, there must be 10+ times more people struggling

Given the excessive non mortgage debt,I suspect it will be a lot worse this time round, especially when so much of this new debt is 'covered' by HPI

Using round figures (not proven statistics) I think too many people are on 25K average salaries, with average houses worth 250K and debts of 25-50K

Up until recently that 250K house increased by 25-50K per annum, so you can justify/cover the debt

Clearly, although no HPC yet, the average house has not risen 25-50K in the last year (FACT)

I wonder how many people are starting to think

"F**k, I only make 25K per annum, after expenses, I am left with a few thousand disposable income and I owe 10K on just ONE of my credit cards" - whoops!

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Its not exactly official, but for every repo, there must be 10+ times more people struggling

As another indicator, I've seen adverts from the BMV buyers in local papers over the last six months. I don't remember seeing such adverts for years.

I've also found the 'Dealing with Debt' board on TMF interesting. Its notable how many participants are suffering deeply from debts but are determined to pay in order to save their house (eg £25k outstanding on credit cards, £175k mortgage, house worth £200k). How much of a drop in values will it take before they throw in the towel?

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hi,

The figure I am trying to track down is comparative stats for %months in arrears - or something close, given that market shares ahve shifted now and there are many more lenders and different kinds of lenders. I remember Bubb posting a figure of 12+ months mortagee arears very close to the repocession levels for last year, according to the CML. Now, I know for a fact that 10-15 years ago, you would be out on the streets with your suitcases for that length of time so the lenders must be holding back on orders, compared to previous years. It makes me wonder also if it can be connected to the large over hanging chain sales that many of the builders and agents were reporting in their year end summary's. In which case, the market picks up and saves the day (just), or it runs out of time and the lenders have to repair their balance sheets.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Its not exactly official, but for every repo, there must be 10+ times more people struggling

If this survey is accurate then it is truly frightening.

The majority of Britons would be unable to cope financially in the event of a minor household emergency according to the Alliance & Leicester. Just 28% said they had money put aside which could be used to replace household appliances, such as a cooker or fridge.

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Guest wrongmove

hi,

The figure I am trying to track down is comparative stats for %months in arrears

KoN on TMF to the rescue again:

CML arrears

For arrears of >12 months, the figure is 13,820 (0.12%). The peak was in 1993 at 151,810 (1.50%)

For 6-12 months arrears in 2005, the figure is 32,470 (0.28%). The peak in 1992 was 205,010 (2.07%)

Arrears Mortages 6-12 months >12 months

1982 6,518,000 27,380 0.42 5,540 0.08

1983 6,846,000 29,440 0.43 7,530 0.11

1984 7,313,000 48,270 0.66 9,510 0.13

1985 7,717,000 57,110 0.74 13,120 0.17

1986 8,138,000 52,080 0.64 13,020 0.16

1987 8,283,000 55,490 0.67 14,960 0.18

1988 8,564,000 42,810 0.50 10,280 0.12

1989 9,125,000 66,800 0.73 13,840 0.15

1990 9,415,000 123,110 1.31 36,100 0.38

1991 9,815,000 183,610 1.87 91,740 0.93

1992 9,922,000 205,010 2.07 147,040 1.48

1993 10,137,000 164,620 1.62 151,810 1.50

1994 10,410,000 133,700 1.28 117,110 1.12

1995 10,521,000 126,670 1.20 85,200 0.81

1996 10,637,000 100,960 0.95 67,020 0.63

1997 10,738,000 73,830 0.69 45,200 0.42

1998 10,821,000 74,040 0.68 34,880 0.32

1999 10,982,000 57,120 0.52 29,520 0.27

2000 11,173,000 47,830 0.43 20,820 0.19

2001 11,270,000 41,460 0.37 18,160 0.16

2002 11,364,000 34,040 0.30 16,490 0.15

2003 11,452,000 29,200 0.25 12,680 0.11

2004 11,512,000 26,920 0.23 11,210 0.10

2005 11,591,000 32,470 0.28 13,820 0.12

BTW does anyone know a good way to do tables on HPC ?

Edited by wrongmove

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but still a long below the early 90s.

I can concur - probably need to wait another 5 years or so for the ball to swing in motion :(

Interesting to note the "trigger" in 1988 - repossessions near vertical. Also a repossession rate of 0.1 or under is pretty much stable - a crash or such can still be averted it seems in the short term.

See attachment for the graph using the figures given

untitled.JPG

post-4078-1139352206.jpg

Edited by notanewmember

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Guest wrongmove

Its not exactly official, but for every repo, there must be 10+ times more people struggling

Looking at the CML figures, for every repo, there is about 2 mortgages with arrears of over 12 months, and a further 3 with arrears 6 to 12 months.

So that's (very) roughly 5 borrowers for every repo with serious repayment problems. I don't know how you define "struggling", but a figure of 1 in 10 sounds reasonable based on the CML historical data.

I can concur - probably need to wait another 5 years or so for the ball the swing in motion :(

See attachment for the graph using the figures given

Welcome oh enigmatically named one :)

And thanks for the graph - clearly shows that repos are up, but from a miniscule base.

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heres the other graph for % of mortgages in arrears >12 months

CONCLUSION = from both of the graphs - we ve got some way to go before it is a "good" time to buy. Not really good for the impatient who wants to buy now (but priced out). :(

arears.JPG

post-4078-1139353663.jpg

Edited by notanewmember

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Looking at the CML figures, for every repo, there is about 2 mortgages with arrears of over 12 months, and a further 3 with arrears 6 to 12 months.

So that's (very) roughly 5 borrowers for every repo with serious repayment problems. I don't know how you define "struggling", but a figure of 1 in 10 sounds reasonable based on the CML historical data.

Welcome oh enigmatically named one :)

And thanks for the graph - clearly shows that repos are up, but from a miniscule base.

What the figures won't show you is how many people cannot comfortably pay their mortgages out of their salaries, but can supplement it with loans/MEW/credit cards

If you have a pulse and a property you can raise 20K on the above in a few days and that would be sub prime/badly paid job/ex LA house

If you have a nicer house and a nicer job 50K isn't a problem

then if you exagerate your income (fraud as some here call it) 50k+ is a breeze

Not all the debt of the last few years is being spent on 4X4's and plasmas

Some people are using it just to supplemnt their income

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So let's get this straight. If US interest rates rise as seems probable this attracts international capital back to the dollar. So the dollar is more attractive than the pound Sterling. The dollar strengthens (ie it attracts more capital) against Sterling (ie the current 1.74 rate goes down). A weak pound means exports dry up (the balance of payments gets worse). So the only recourse the BoE has is to raise rates (remember the UK is in the ERM even if it is not in EMU).

OK, interest rates go up (as part of 'prudent management'), and the number of repos will correspondingly increase. Looking at the charts above it was only when repos got to 0.2% in 89 before they went over the edge. A single quarter-point rise in IRs here will have a catastrophic effect. Remember no one's buying at the moment. If the general view is IRs are heading North that's really going to kill this dead-cat bounce.

Come on US inflation, do your worst... :)

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