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Has Britain's house price crash been cancelled – or is it still coming this autumn?


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A reasonably balanced, for the telegraph, article pondering the madness of the current property market. 

NB If you don't want to register to see it, try the Firefox firewall bypass extension.   

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/has-britains-house-price-crash-cancelled-still-coming-autumn/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Quote

On the surface, it looks like Britain’s post-coronavirus house price crash has been cancelled.

The state of the housing market is surreal. Unemployment is spiking and the nation is heading into what the Bank of England expects to be the worst economic slump in 300 years. 

The British property market is in a buying frenzy. Richard Donnell, of property website Zoopla, said the number of newly agreed sales in Britain was 20pc higher than the pre-Covid level, which in turn was already up significantly on 2019 activity levels. 

The reality on the ground certainly does not look like a HPC at the moment. In my area over 40% of the houses on sale have gone to STC, and in Blackpool (parents place) the number is not far off 40%. Even the obvious ex BTL places are selling at prices far higher than they would have got last year. Is this just a mirage, will most of these sales collapse over the next couple of months. 

My bet is this is being driven by a limited number of keen buyers, either cash buyers or with secure jobs, and very soon supply will overtake demand. For those determined to buy now, it's probably going to secure their status as the greatest fool for many years to come.  

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6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

For those determined to buy now, it's probably going to secure their status as the greatest fool for many years to come.  

And if we have a vaccine by the end of the year? Life rapidly returns to how things were in a matter of weeks, as all the stimulus hits the housing market...

:ph34r:

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Judging by the number of people I've spoken to who've received grants, bounceback loans etc there is a lot of cash sloshing around at the moment burning a hole in people's pockets.

The whole thing is total insanity.

As far as props go, a number of the people I know who are in receipt of bounceback loans have mentioned that they only took them on the basis that they are expecting some debt forgiveness in the future....

 

 

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Lower IRs, term Funding to force down mortgage rates, £675Bn handed to the bankers, Stamp duty holiday, MSM propaganda, EAs pushing up asking prices.

There will be no HPC, just all out collapse of the country, the currency, the economy.  We are facing mass civil unrest at best, civil war a possibility, Christians V muslims, Blacks V white, rich V poor but more likely they'll start a BIG war and have you march out to die.

Despite what the trolls say The CON stated quite clearly several times that house prices were now the least of peoples worries.  I think he was right. 

They dont look like they will stop.  -ve mortgage rates will come, savings will be stolen, inter-generational mortgages can't be far off.

You could buy shares, just as the economy is collapsing.

You could buy gold, but it's peaked, could be confiscated.

You could buy silver, but the VAT makes it look a poor investment, could be confiscated.

You could buy property at these prices !!!

You could buy bitcoin but that's brave.

Classic cars, collapse waiting to happen

You name it, any investment, they are at extremes due to low IRs.

Whatever you do you're going to lose.  Take your pick on which asset bubble you want to lose on.

We have much bigger problems than house prices.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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Property newly listed around me seems to have gone up 10% since lockdown and plenty selling, I thought initially this is Estate Agents baking in increases to allow for any potential drop but now I am unsure, when will this madness end.

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16 minutes ago, msi said:

How many props are left to push forward to keep credit supply going?

I thought we'd not see helicopter money, but it's happened.

-ve mortgage rates, a thing of fantasy I though, but Norway I think has them.

Inter-generational mortgages, 50 year mortgages, work till you die mortgages

Corporate housing

60% HTB

80% HTB

150% shared ownership schemes

There is nothing off the establishments table before they win, everyone else loses.

 

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I doubt they will confiscate gold or silver, print to oblivion is a simpler solution.

In my area (Edinburgh) rental prices are roughly 10% down, lots of empty flats around, but if you want to buy them, asking prices are slightly higher than 6 months ago.

Edited by Paul77
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1 minute ago, dynamite red said:

Property newly listed around me seems to have gone up 10% since lockdown and plenty selling, I thought initially this is Estate Agents baking in increases to allow for any potential drop but now I am unsure, when will this madness end.

UK Property lion says current asking prices went up 4% QoQ so you are not wrong seeing an uplift.

However, London did drop in price and a real surge in listings, this skewed the index.

At the slightest hint of trouble the BoE prints ( steals ) cash with impunity despite know that this means higher asset prices.

IT IS DELIBERATE.

Anyone who voted tory this time thinking they were their saviors are in for a shock, wouldn't surprise me if we were back in Europe by the next election too.

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Just now, Paul77 said:

I doubt they will confiscate gold or silver, print to oblivion is a simpler solution.

If the £ collapses printing doesn't work.  They will protect their position with "real" wealth and that means YOUR gold.

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Just now, dynamite red said:

Property newly listed around me seems to have gone up 10% since lockdown and plenty selling, I thought initially this is Estate Agents baking in increases to allow for any potential drop but now I am unsure, when will this madness end.

I am pretty confident it will be over by Christmas, even the Telegraph agrees with me

Do your maths – you might find it's smarter to shun the stamp duty holiday.

Quote

Buying property now also comes with the major caveat that analysts expect house prices to sink in the last months of this year and in early 2021, as the holiday comes to a close, and the economic fallout of the pandemic bites as the furlough scheme ends, unemployment increases and buyers find it more difficult to obtain mortgages. Think-tank the Centre for Economic and Business Research has forecast a 5pc drop in property prices this year, concentrated at the end of 2020, then a 10.6pc drop in 2021. These falls will far outstrip any stamp duty saving.

 

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1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If the £ collapses printing doesn't work.  They will protect their position with "real" wealth and that means YOUR gold.

Most people don't have any gold these days.

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For me this is beautiful. I argued strongly with Venger years back about inflation being used to cause a slow real correction while nominal stayed flat. This is quite extraordinary but simply accelerating what I thought we'd see

It's not over yet. My view is that housing is just on a ratchet, in the good times prices increase with wages, in the bad times they go printy printy and start trowing money at the economy. 

I also recall telling people here that I was buying back in 2017 and got nothing short of ridiculed. Credit tightening, Brexit recession, crash just around the corner. 

Ah well. 

To everyone on this site thinking about buying you may well have already missed the best recent opportunities with Brexit and/or early Corona but your future is in your hands only. My tips:

Do not buy new build and buy a fixer upper if you can. Review local planning schemes and road/town upgrades and basically surf the improvements that are being planned or executed so that when they are completed they act as some sort of backstop to any future headwinds in prices. 

I do not agree with high house prices but the alternative is to sit in rented and moan on here about the injustice of the whole thing. 13 years on from the GFC and you'd be halfway through a 25 year mortgage. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:

I do not agree with high house prices but the alternative is to sit in rented and moan on here about the injustice of the whole thing. 13 years on from the GFC and you'd be halfway through a 25 year mortgage. 

But again, as I keep posting, buying isnt an option for some.

As for full-on-socialism, well I dont know about yourself, but it wouldnt seem worthwhile staying around IMHO. 

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8 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:

I also recall telling people here that I was buying back in 2017 and got nothing short of ridiculed. Credit tightening, Brexit recession, crash just around the corner. 

people have been saying since 2008 that anyone who bought is a mug.  Meanwhile those who did need a mortgage to buy are half way through their mortgage term and are halfway to owning their own home with no mortgage.  Those ate the people who see a property purely as an investment and bot a home but get incredibly angry  when other people have done what they wanted to do and make money 

Financial wizards.

8 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:

I do not agree with high house prices but the alternative is to sit in rented and moan on here about the injustice of the whole thing. 13 years on from the GFC and you'd be halfway through a 25 year mortgage. 

Agree 100 % 

Montaigne will not make prices fall.  There are many other things to do in life other than be obsessed by property prices.  

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31 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Lower IRs, term Funding to force down mortgage rates, £675Bn handed to the bankers, Stamp duty holiday, MSM propaganda, EAs pushing up asking prices.

There will be no HPC, just all out collapse of the country, the currency, the economy.  We are facing mass civil unrest at best, civil war a possibility, Christians V muslims, Blacks V white, rich V poor but more likely they'll start a BIG war and have you march out to die.

Despite what the trolls say The CON stated quite clearly several times that house prices were now the least of peoples worries.  I think he was right. 

They dont look like they will stop.  -ve mortgage rates will come, savings will be stolen, inter-generational mortgages can't be far off.

You could buy shares, just as the economy is collapsing.

You could buy gold, but it's peaked, could be confiscated.

You could buy silver, but the VAT makes it look a poor investment, could be confiscated.

You could buy property at these prices !!!

You could buy bitcoin but that's brave.

Classic cars, collapse waiting to happen

You name it, any investment, they are at extremes due to low IRs.

Whatever you do you're going to lose.  Take your pick on which asset bubble you want to lose on.

We have much bigger problems than house prices.

There are still lots of investment opportunities but you need to think what the future will be like and invest in the companies that will benefit from it. If it turns out you are right you will make lots of money, certainly far more than by buying a house at today's prices.

For me that's investing in decarbonisation including EVs, battery companies, fuel cells/hydrogen, Electricity Grids plus healthcare.     

 

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34 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:

For me this is beautiful. I argued strongly with Venger years back about inflation being used to cause a slow real correction while nominal stayed flat. This is quite extraordinary but simply accelerating what I thought we'd see

It's not over yet. My view is that housing is just on a ratchet, in the good times prices increase with wages, in the bad times they go printy printy and start trowing money at the economy. 

I also recall telling people here that I was buying back in 2017 and got nothing short of ridiculed. Credit tightening, Brexit recession, crash just around the corner. 

Ah well. 

To everyone on this site thinking about buying you may well have already missed the best recent opportunities with Brexit and/or early Corona but your future is in your hands only. My tips:

Do not buy new build and buy a fixer upper if you can. Review local planning schemes and road/town upgrades and basically surf the improvements that are being planned or executed so that when they are completed they act as some sort of backstop to any future headwinds in prices. 

I do not agree with high house prices but the alternative is to sit in rented and moan on here about the injustice of the whole thing. 13 years on from the GFC and you'd be halfway through a 25 year mortgage. 

 

2017 was probably the worst possible time to buy.  Oh well.  Everyone's a winner with house prices, eh.

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  • 416 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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