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Britain faces Credit Crunch II


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Mortgages and other loans are set to become harder to find over the coming months as the coronavirus pandemic causes banks to pull back from lending.

Experts fear the UK could be heading for another credit crunch as lenders are becoming more reluctant to get money out of the door.

Banks predict that loans will become scarcer, costlier and riskier over the next few months.

This will pile pressure on home buyers who are seeking a mortgage, or households that have suffered from pay cuts or job losses and need a loan to help make ends meet. 

Daily Mail

 

Already lot of free money were handed out to kickstart economy with little or no effect.

What tricks is Rishi and BOE going to try this time?

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11 minutes ago, rollover said:

Already lot of free money were handed out to kickstart economy with little or no effect.

What tricks is Rishi and BOE going to try this time?

 

The obvious one would be the government creating a "sovereign wealth fund" into which they share up to 50% equity for first time buyer houses.

So Tim minimum wage goes to bank. He can borrow up to 70K ? Has a deposit of 5K. Government "buys" the other 50% ... so he can get himself a 150K little flat. 

The government's 50% becomes an asset in the sovereign wealth fund.

The banks will have 0 issue lending against that.

Watch every shithole flat skyrocket in price.

The government sovereign wealth fund can package and sell on tranches of their "equity" to international REITs to recycle some cash.

 

Can I be chancellor?? 

Edited by hayder
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6 minutes ago, rollover said:

Already lot of free money were handed out to kickstart economy with little or no effect.

What tricks is Rishi and BOE going to try this time?

Rishi has to be very careful. The Tories are under a lot of fire from their base for the insanity of extending furlough to October in early May with no good reason whatsoever. They may try some government backed deposit scheme like HTB for everyone, but if they did I would actually get violent and I am sure I wouldn’t be alone. I think anything that does happen will be extending mortgage holidays.

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5 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

Rishi has to be very careful. The Tories are under a lot of fire from their base for the insanity of extending furlough to October in early May with no good reason whatsoever. They may try some government backed deposit scheme like HTB for everyone, but if they did I would actually get violent and I am sure I wouldn’t be alone. I think anything that does happen will be extending mortgage holidays.

I'm not sure that Tories feel the same way about propping up the housing market as they feel about furlough though. I can imagine the former being a lot more acceptable to them.

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1 minute ago, GodlessEndeavor said:

I'm not sure that Tories feel the same way about propping up the housing market as they feel about furlough though. I can imagine the former being a lot more acceptable to them.

You are probably right.

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I think the sidebar (below) is noteworthy. It is not just estate agent BS either. I saw so many houses go under offer in June. I made an offer 8% below asking last week and the EA said the owner wouldn’t take it. He said they just had their best month on record. I said I would tak again in January, but by then my offer would be more like 15% off. We know that house prices went down in June, so most of the offers accepted were probably discounted...I noticed this as well,  lots of people reducing then selling in days. What will be really interesting, and the true litmus test of whether banks are not giving out loans, is how many of these chains fall apart. I have already seen a couple of SSTC go back on. We should really watch out for this. [who’s ...seriously, they have professional editors FFS]

Quote

Housing's brief reprieve? 

The housing market roared back to life in June as a record number of offers were accepted, according to research.

After months of sluggish activity during the coronavirus lockdown, estate agent Knight Frank said it had recorded the best month for successful offers.

The figure for last month was 46 per cent higher than the previous record, in March this year before the lockdown. 

Knight Frank – who's data goes back 20 years – said this underscored 'how the property market has picked up where it left off before the pandemic struck'.

Tom Bill, Knight Frank's head of UK residential research, added: 'Sellers are coming back in meaningful numbers and deals are being agreed at record rates.'

 

Edited by HovelinHove
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40 minutes ago, hayder said:

 

The obvious one would be the government creating a "sovereign wealth fund" into which they share up to 50% equity for first time buyer houses.

So Tim minimum wage goes to bank. He can borrow up to 70K ? Has a deposit of 5K. Government "buys" the other 50% ... so he can get himself a 150K little flat. 

The government's 50% becomes an asset in the sovereign wealth fund.

The banks will have 0 issue lending against that.

Watch every shithole flat skyrocket in price.

The government sovereign wealth fund can package and sell on tranches of their "equity" to international REITs to recycle some cash.

 

Can I be chancellor?? 

The obvious question here is why was this not done in the past.

If there were falls would the sovereign wealth fund accept the losses? If not the losses to the individual would be a huge percentage of their mortgage.

 

This whole covid debacle has shown how sensitive the indebted western democracies are to such a biological attack...that will not be missed by the current "axis of evil"...even if it was a natural phenomena.

One virus has caused as much financial chaos as a major war,...20% of GDP wiped out in a few months...so standby for another such episode in the mid term!

I believe that the Chinese economy still grew during the great Covid pause???

Part of our defence strategy HAS to be a robust economy that can accept such blows and survive in tact.

Gerrymandering with the housing market will not help in the long run, it will make us more susceptible to foreign interference and since we have taken such a "brave stand" against Chinese tyranny of late, we should steel ourselves for more tumultuous times ahead.

Prioritizing anything else is a dereliction of the Governments duty.

 

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53 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

The obvious question here is why was this not done in the past.

If there were falls would the sovereign wealth fund accept the losses? If not the losses to the individual would be a huge percentage of their mortgage.

 

This whole covid debacle has shown how sensitive the indebted western democracies are to such a biological attack...that will not be missed by the current "axis of evil"...even if it was a natural phenomena.

One virus has caused as much financial chaos as a major war,...20% of GDP wiped out in a few months...so standby for another such episode in the mid term!

I believe that the Chinese economy still grew during the great Covid pause???

Part of our defence strategy HAS to be a robust economy that can accept such blows and survive in tact.

Gerrymandering with the housing market will not help in the long run, it will make us more susceptible to foreign interference and since we have taken such a "brave stand" against Chinese tyranny of late, we should steel ourselves for more tumultuous times ahead.

Prioritizing anything else is a dereliction of the Governments duty.

 

Moving the country from UK plc to HMS Resilience. I can already see the strategy report already (ignored of course because it doesn't play well with focus groups in marginals).

Actually, it should play well with focus groups in marginals, you could stick a massive Union Jack and a picture of a battleship on the cover, along with a three word slogan. "Resilience, Stoicism, Duty"

Can I be Dominic Cummings?

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1 minute ago, 24gray24 said:

It's people losing their jobs that will cut economic activity in the uk. And people frightened of losing their job next, so paying down debt. 

Indeed, that or say hello to the NINJA (no income no job no assets) loans again.  Would you want to invest / do business in a country that has resorted to NINJA loans?  

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35 minutes ago, Bear Goggles said:

Moving the country from UK plc to HMS Resilience. I can already see the strategy report already (ignored of course because it doesn't play well with focus groups in marginals).

Actually, it should play well with focus groups in marginals, you could stick a massive Union Jack and a picture of a battleship on the cover, along with a three word slogan. "Resilience, Stoicism, Duty"

Can I be Dominic Cummings?

"Resilience, stoicism, duty, rentierism"

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1 minute ago, blackhole said:

Indeed, that or say hello to the NINJA (no income no job no assets) loans again.  Would you want to invest / do business in a country that has resorted to NINJA 

Giving a loan to a ninja who has the time energy and skills to build himself a house isn't that risky, even when prices are falling. 

Whether england is good to invest in is simply comparative tax rates and wages. Its probably better than most. Plus it's safe. 

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2 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Giving a loan to a ninja who has the time energy and skills to build himself a house isn't that risky, even when prices are falling. 

Whether england is good to invest in is simply comparative tax rates and wages. Its probably better than most. Plus it's safe. 

Are you talking about 18 yo ninjas?

Or behind a ninja in your mid thirties can still be ok?

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2 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

I think the sidebar (below) is noteworthy. It is not just estate agent BS either. I saw so many houses go under offer in June. I made an offer 8% below asking last week and the EA said the owner wouldn’t take it. He said they just had their best month on record. I said I would tak again in January, but by then my offer would be more like 15% off. We know that house prices went down in June, so most of the offers accepted were probably discounted...I noticed this as well,  lots of people reducing then selling in days. What will be really interesting, and the true litmus test of whether banks are not giving out loans, is how many of these chains fall apart. I have already seen a couple of SSTC go back on. We should really watch out for this. [who’s ...seriously, they have professional editors FFS]

 

Theyll get a massive surprise then the mortgage bank says - No.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

9,200 mortgages sold in May 2020!

Extend the chart to MAX.

There is no housing market.

Those EAS might as well jack it in and work on the tills at tesco.

 

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3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Theyll get a massive surprise then the mortgage bank says - No.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

9,200 mortgages sold in May 2020!

Extend the chart to MAX.

There is no housing market.

Those EAS might as well jack it in and work on the tills at tesco.

 

Extending to Max was a real revelation. The housing market has never really got up a full head of steam since 2008. I think millions have become stuck where they are.

June’s figures will be the most revealing. A record month for offers, will there be a corresponding record month for mortgage approvals, or are all the offers hot air?

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1 hour ago, blackhole said:

Indeed, that or say hello to the NINJA (no income no job no assets) loans again.  Would you want to invest / do business in a country that has resorted to NINJA loans?  

i need a ninja loan ! do they lend to old apathetic ninja`s ?

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43 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

Extending to Max was a real revelation. The housing market has never really got up a full head of steam since 2008. I think millions have become stuck where they are.

June’s figures will be the most revealing. A record month for offers, will there be a corresponding record month for mortgage approvals, or are all the offers hot air?

An Ea told me that 1994->1996 were 'the worst years ever for UK housing'

Fast foward or 2008 and transaction are half the level.

And theyve stayed there, despite HTB and all the other stuff.

Prices are just too high.

 

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

An Ea told me that 1994->1996 were 'the worst years ever for UK housing'

Fast foward or 2008 and transaction are half the level.

And theyve stayed there, despite HTB and all the other stuff.

Prices are just too high.

 

1994-96 were the best years to buy. 

It should be a great time to buy right now as well, but I guess it will take 3 million unemployed before prices finally drop. 

I remember last time but one, everyone lied right up to Christmas and then, hey presto, like flicking a switch, those same people ( who had consistently denied it before) said " yes,  of course it's a recession ". 

American election may bring it forward a bit, but Christmas with no presents should make it obvious to all. 

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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

An Ea told me that 1994->1996 were 'the worst years ever for UK housing'

Fast foward or 2008 and transaction are half the level.

And theyve stayed there, despite HTB and all the other stuff.

Prices are just too high.

 

The greater fool theory has taken a ridiculous amount of time to play out. All about sentiment and belief in the old mantra. Funny how hpi foverever thinking evaporates when you realise the people you are trying to sell to no longer need to buy your crummy city pad to get to work ? 

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On 17/07/2020 at 17:03, Trump Invective said:

The greater fool theory has taken a ridiculous amount of time to play out. All about sentiment and belief in the old mantra. Funny how hpi foverever thinking evaporates when you realise the people you are trying to sell to no longer need to buy your crummy city pad to get to work ? 

Most of the post 2008 mortgages are in London/SE, dtupifky, as tye levels are insane.

All I've been hear fir 15 years in the North is - Xxx cant sell their house...

Pointless going thru the dumb Oh Xx has 'sold' their house, followed by 6 months, the Xxx is selling their house again...

It didn't sell the first time.

There'll be a a huge lurch down in mortgages sold, at least til 2021 q1.

London/SE looks to be toast as all the commuters stay home and th Southern service companies implode.

Itll be even worse in the London commuter towns.

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On 17/07/2020 at 17:03, Trump Invective said:

The greater fool theory has taken a ridiculous amount of time to play out. All about sentiment and belief in the old mantra. Funny how hpi foverever thinking evaporates when you realise the people you are trying to sell to no longer need to buy your crummy city pad to get to work ? 

Or it's unmortgagable due to Grenfell cladding.

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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