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Realistbear

Manufacturing Down Again

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http://www.businessmoneynews.co.uk/ext/bm/...y.jsp?story=859

Manufacturing orders fall again in most UK regions
07 Feb 2006
Manufacturers continued to struggle as a further decline in orders undermined output and confidence in most UK regions, according to the latest quarterly Regional Trends Survey published by the CBI and Experian.
The fall in output at a national level in the past three months was despite survey expectations of little change. For the second survey running, the overall decline was driven primarily by the weakness of domestic orders, with the drop
more severe than expected in most regions
. While
export orders also remained on a downward path
, the UK-wide fall was modest and there were a number of regions that bucked this trend.
UK manufacturing continued to shed jobs over the past three months.
The pace of job losses was particularly marked in three regions
– Northern Ireland, the south east & London and the West Midlands.
According to Experian estimates based on the survey results,
a further 24,000 manufacturing job losses
are expected in the current quarter at a national level.
Dimitri Gunawardena, economist at Experian, said: "The poor performance of manufacturing in the fourth quarter
continues to reflect the weakness of economic fundamentals.
A combination of subdued domestic and external demand, coupled with declines in output and employment, has undermined confidence in most regions

The prospects for any HPI whatsoever this year are looking remote. With retail sales slumping, manufacturing contracting, unemployment rising and bankruptcies and company liquidations soaring the probability is that we will see another negative year for house prices this year.

HPC 2006.

Edited by Realistbear

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They will have to lower the interest rates – as they cannot allow this to get any worse, which could mean we will have massive + HPI again.

The Bank of E has to do something- I don’t think they will bring on a recession by raising IR’s

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The Bank of E has to do something- I don’t think they will bring on a recession by raising IR’s

What makes you think they won't bring on a recession by _lowering_ rates? That would trash the pound and raise energy and commodity costs even higher.

At some point they have to come to accept that the over-indebted are hosed, and raise rates to try to prevent massive price inflation. The longer they wait, the worse it will be.

Edited by MarkG

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They will have to lower the interest rates – as they cannot allow this to get any worse, which could mean we will have massive + HPI again.

The Bank of E has to do something- I don’t think they will bring on a recession by raising IR’s

But interest rates were higher than this when the boom started, it's all about sentiment, in Japan interest rates were 0% (negative in real terms) yet the property market was still on its back for the best part of a decade.

If I offered to sell you a mellon for £10 and then cut the price to £5 it still doesn't mean its cheap.

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They will have to lower the interest rates – as they cannot allow this to get any worse, which could mean we will have massive + HPI again.

The Bank of E has to do something- I don’t think they will bring on a recession by raising IR’s

The pound has already tanked over the past 48 hours down from 1.78 to 1.74. Any indication of a cut in IR and its sterling crash time. Gordon "miracle economy" Brown has suspended himself from the horns of a rather nasty dilema. This is the price of HPI.

Edited by Realistbear

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What makes you think they won't bring on a recession by _lowering_ rates? That would trash the pound and raise energy and commodity costs even higher.

Indeed, a cut in rates is a vote of no confidence in future growth.

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Certainly if they _do_ cut rates, pretty much every penny I have in the UK will be shipped out the next day... I'm sure many other people will be doing the same. A cut would be an open admission that the economy is hosed and the people in charge are morons.

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Certainly if they _do_ cut rates, pretty much every penny I have in the UK will be shipped out the next day... I'm sure many other people will be doing the same. A cut would be an open admission that the economy is hosed and the people in charge are morons.

Has anyone noticed how much money has been flowing into US 5 year notes? I believe I read the majority of it has been coming from the UK. Can anyone verify?

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The pound has been lower than 1.74 a few weeks ago – so I would not say it has tanked although it was near 2 a year ago and that has not made a noticeable difference

a cut in IR’s will make the pound worse but will help the UK avoid a recession.

I just don’t think the bank will have a choice

As long as they keep IR’s above Europes I don’t see why there should be a problem (although I agree that it will just save the problems up for later – I am just looking for a trigger)

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a cut in IR’s will make the pound worse but will help the UK avoid a recession.

How will increasing the price of energy and commodities help us avoid a recession? Manufacturers are already screaming because they can't raise prices yet the cost of pretty much everything they buy is exploding.

Edited by MarkG

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How will increasing the price of energy and commodities help us avoid a recession? Manufacturers are already screaming because they can't raise prices yet the cost of pretty much everything they buy is exploding.

This is dead right. Fuel is critical and the 25% increases announced for both gas and electricity will already deal a death blow to many on the brink of bankruptcy. Its the cost of fuel that is pushing many companies into liquidation. BTW I am investing in UKCoal as it is becoming a viable alternative now that they have taken care of the pollution issues.

The last 2 HPCs were caused by energy costs and it looks like its number 3 coming up?

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How will increasing the price of energy and commodities help us avoid a recession? Manufacturers are already screaming because they can't raise prices yet the cost of pretty much everything they buy is exploding.

Would it not give people more money in there pockets and encourage them to spend again

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Would it not give people more money in there pockets and encourage them to spend again

The article reports confidence is down. I think people are getting worried that is why the spending spree is slowing. Too much spin maybe confusing people.

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Would it not give people more money in there pockets and encourage them to spend again

It's all about sentiment, a 0.25% cut isn't about leaving £20 in your pocket (which will just be eaten up by bills), it's about giving you confidence.

Even talk of a cut is as good as a cut sometimes, that's why it's the job of the central bank to talk errant nonsense and give out mixed signals.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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