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I've been giving this a bit of thought,and it looks like all may not be quite as sweetness as it appears.

Let's take the furlough employers bonus for example.

£1000 for every employee retaines on 25hrs or more,on a wage of £525 pm or more until jan next year.Looks to me like a lot of employers will use this as an opportunity to bag the cash,but reduce a full time workers hours from 37.5/40 down to 25 or 30..temporarily of course,until making a further "adjustment" next year.

So from furlough we now go from 80% wages down to 70-75%...but miraculously don't get mass unemployment....yet.

What's you're take?

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1 hour ago, oracle said:

I've been giving this a bit of thought,and it looks like all may not be quite as sweetness as it appears.

Let's take the furlough employers bonus for example.

£1000 for every employee retaines on 25hrs or more,on a wage of £525 pm or more until jan next year.Looks to me like a lot of employers will use this as an opportunity to bag the cash,but reduce a full time workers hours from 37.5/40 down to 25 or 30..temporarily of course,until making a further "adjustment" next year.

So from furlough we now go from 80% wages down to 70-75%...but miraculously don't get mass unemployment....yet.

What's you're take?

Quite likely, though many of the really aggressive businesses like supermarkets already have few staff on more than 16 hours due to the benefits threshold. 

I'd imagine many employers will try and break the link with the older jobs being replaced. So if a forklift driver gets £14 an hour, the sunak junior comes in on a funded place effect Ely costing nothing then, after 6 months, the new title for forklift driver is 'stock location operative', there's a small redundancy scenario where you pick the best of the new apprentices and old forklift drivers willing to work for 9.50 an hour. 

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2 hours ago, oracle said:

I've been giving this a bit of thought,and it looks like all may not be quite as sweetness as it appears.

Let's take the furlough employers bonus for example.

£1000 for every employee retaines on 25hrs or more,on a wage of £525 pm or more until jan next year.Looks to me like a lot of employers will use this as an opportunity to bag the cash,but reduce a full time workers hours from 37.5/40 down to 25 or 30..temporarily of course,until making a further "adjustment" next year.

So from furlough we now go from 80% wages down to 70-75%...but miraculously don't get mass unemployment....yet.

What's you're take?

I’m quite sure you are right.

A lot of the firms and jobs were marginal anyway, any firm that jumps for a £1000 per employee isn’t really in a good area of business and is probably just playing the system. It’s benefits culture for corporations.

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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The thought process seems reasonable.

Is it me or are furloughed staff now just way more valuable to a company than some poor sucker who has been working the whole time?

Take two employees A and B. A is kept on as they have slightly more experience etc. B gets a month or more furlough. A can now no longer be furloughed whilst B still can, which means B is now more flexible and of more value to a company during uncertain times till November. Let’s say the company has to make redundancies in December as trade doesn’t pick up - there is now a £1000 incentive to sack A over B, slightly unfair!

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I haven't looked into the entire detail (which I guess may change!) but my gut feel is that £1000 is nowhere near enough incentive for a business to keep someone employed even if they are fully furlough funded, especially since the rules have a habit of being "clarified".

My feeling is that the only staff that were ever worth furloughing were those with skills and difficult to replace. If you are employing unskilled labour I would have felt far more comfortable minimising costs as much as possible at the beginning of lockdown, because at least then you know the issue is sorted.

I think the problem is a lot of people thought or think this was only for a couple of months then it would all go away, when in reality I think there is a good chance it will flair up over winter, and we won't be clear of it until a vaccine probably at the earliest Q2 next year.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

we won't be clear of it until a vaccine

I don't think you are an NPC, so please stop repeating this meme. It is beneath you.

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5 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Sunak is not making the decisions, Cummings is.

 

...and didn't we vote not to be ruled by Unelected Bureaucrats :)?

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5 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

My feeling is that the only staff that were ever worth furloughing were those with skills and difficult to replace.

Turns out if you do have "skills and are difficult to replace" and the company furloughs you then it's not difficult to find alternative employment. Out of the 30 or so we furloughed in March, approximately 50% have found new jobs, even in the current jobs market.

Just finished a call with our CEO, basic update is we've got cash and customers to see the current work force through 2021, but we'll not be able to bring the remaining furloughed staff back at the end of October, even with a £1k cash boost for each one.

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Surprising that the jobs are available, but I have no info on that.

I do see that if you have an employee who is a good worker then they might be worth holding onto irrespective of skills base. Certainly the risk of having to re-employ and finding that the new person is "performance challenged" or awkward is pretty costly to businesses. A reliable, hard working employee is really worth something. Still I don't think the 1K is really material in making the decision, which maybe concurs with this view from the beeb on the scheme :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53348246

Second news about potential furlough fraud :

 

 

 

 

Edited by Gigantic Purple Slug
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1 hour ago, spongeh said:

Turns out if you do have "skills and are difficult to replace" and the company furloughs you then it's not difficult to find alternative employment. Out of the 30 or so we furloughed in March, approximately 50% have found new jobs, even in the current jobs market.

Just finished a call with our CEO, basic update is we've got cash and customers to see the current work force through 2021, but we'll not be able to bring the remaining furloughed staff back at the end of October, even with a £1k cash boost for each one.

Yep. Classic. In the bad times the good people leave and you're left with the dross - been there! Not quite the same situation obviously, but I'd definitely have furloughed my less skilled/ hardworking staff in March if I was still in that game. You don't want to risk losing the good people.

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20 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

We did indeed.

No - we voted to leave the EU, which is run by elected MEPs.

If you don't like the Johnson/Sunak listening to Mr Cummings feel free to vote against them in 2024.

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12 hours ago, scottbeard said:

No - we voted to leave the EU, which is run by elected MEPs.

If you don't like the Johnson/Sunak listening to Mr Cummings feel free to vote against them in 2024.

Whooosh.......... That was the point going straight over your head.

As for your second sentence, thanks for your permission, but hopefully they'll be gone before 2024.

 

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3 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Whooosh.......... That was the point going straight over your head.

Jeepers OK I know the point above is about Mr Cummings and his unelected influence.  Mine was, admittedly, a dig at Brexit.

On reflection as a Remain voter perhaps I'm ill placed to say what "we" did and why - I should leave that to Leave voters like yourself.

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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