rantnrave Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Latest RICS update https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/09/uk-housing-markets-post-lockdown-bounce-might-run-out-of-steam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Even after the stamp duty announcement wow I'm Astonished Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xxxx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Yep. Small developers are in trouble and are laying off staff. Too much debt and not enough sales. High amount of investment property coming into market to offload. It’s chaos out there and sales still held up. The beginnings have started, this is going to take ages to play out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetsBuild Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 7 hours ago, longgone said: Even after the stamp duty announcement wow I'm Astonished I’ve not read it but did they factor that in? Either way, along with Nationwides recent ‘house prices fall for the first time since 2012’, Halifax’s ‘house fall for the 4 straight month in a row’ the papers are pumping out some negative headlines ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, LetsBuild said: I’ve not read it but did they factor that in? Fear of, or actually losing you job makes discounts irrelevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 I would expect prices to fall - although if I could see the future, I would be posting this from the Caribbean - and sadly I am not. I am not certain enough to sell to rent though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, LetsBuild said: I’ve not read it but did they factor that in? Either way, along with Nationwides recent ‘house prices fall for the first time since 2012’, Halifax’s ‘house fall for the 4 straight month in a row’ the papers are pumping out some negative headlines ? add in some restrictive lending too, not so rosy for those banging the loudest Hpi saucepan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eva24 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 7 hours ago, xxxx said: Yep. Small developers are in trouble and are laying off staff. Too much debt and not enough sales. High amount of investment property coming into market to offload. It’s chaos out there and sales still held up. The beginnings have started, this is going to take ages to play out. Noticed in Cambridgeshire where I've been looking over the past few months that some new builds are putting downward pressure on the market, as they are getting cheaper and cheaper....I suppose they actually need to sell these new builds.. rather than some people who just seem to put their properties on Rightmove for the hell of it. Hopefully over the next few months we'll start to see who actually needs to sell....and prices will correct...downwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xxxx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Yvonne said: Noticed in Cambridgeshire where I've been looking over the past few months that some new builds are putting downward pressure on the market, as they are getting cheaper and cheaper....I suppose they actually need to sell these new builds.. rather than some people who just seem to put their properties on Rightmove for the hell of it. Hopefully over the next few months we'll start to see who actually needs to sell....and prices will correct...downwards. They are getting desperate and will take low offers to sell. Huge amount of finance on expensive bridging loans and few sales. There was literally meltdown by many yesterday as all pending exchange and completions paused due to the stamp duty announcement. Absolute carnage on the high street today. There is only one way house prices are going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 I can smell toast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deckard Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 42 minutes ago, xxxx said: There was literally meltdown by many yesterday as all pending exchange and completions paused due to the stamp duty announcement. I love the smell of developer panic in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xxxx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, Deckard said: I love the smell of developer panic in the morning. And it was full on panic. Many developers have cut all costs and reduced staff to minimum. They have been given payment plans from the bank stating how many houses have to be completed by when. They are on the edge of defaulting trying to pay the interest from their loans. When it was paused yesterday, the panic was intense, some didn’t complete until today. Many are one house sale away from going under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 25 minutes ago, xxxx said: And it was full on panic. Many developers have cut all costs and reduced staff to minimum. They have been given payment plans from the bank stating how many houses have to be completed by when. They are on the edge of defaulting trying to pay the interest from their loans. When it was paused yesterday, the panic was intense, some didn’t complete until today. Many are one house sale away from going under. Hi sorry if this is common knowledge am in and out of forum. Do you have industry knowledge / first hand info or anecdotal? Genuine interested - what happens to those due to complete if bank pulls plug? House now banks but is deposit protected. Is it small devs or the big Tory donor builders bricking it too? Know 3 brickies all currently renovating own houses no work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 44 minutes ago, Deckard said: I love the smell of developer panic in the morning. It smells like....Victory Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moonriver Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 19 hours ago, rantnrave said: Latest RICS update https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/09/uk-housing-markets-post-lockdown-bounce-might-run-out-of-steam ...“Looking to the next 12 months, respondents now anticipate a flat to marginally negative trend in house price inflation,” said Rics."... Talk about a roundabout way of saying they expect house prices to go down! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xxxx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, Staffsknot said: Hi sorry if this is common knowledge am in and out of forum. Do you have industry knowledge / first hand info or anecdotal? Genuine interested - what happens to those due to complete if bank pulls plug? House now banks but is deposit protected. Is it small devs or the big Tory donor builders bricking it too? Know 3 brickies all currently renovating own houses no work. I work in the industry. These are small/medium developers. The developer puts the money in a SPV and uses it for the build. If he goes under, your name gets added to the list he owes to. 50/50 chance of getting it back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 gotta love the graundiad's headline. What "bounce" exactly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Switch625 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 First time I have ever heard a 3% fall 'a bounce', but all things are relative I guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Switch625 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Roman Roady said: It smells like....Victory When the developers are panicking, you know it really is game over. They will act in the same way they always do in this sort of situation ... walk away from their debts scot free and leave good businesses in the supply and building trades to suffer as a result. Edited July 9, 2020 by Switch625 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moonriver Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, nickb1 said: gotta love the graundiad's headline. What "bounce" exactly? think they mean that non existent bounce.... Interesting question at the end of this article... ..Andrew York, at local Rics member firm Moore & York, said the market there had been picking up prior to the renewed lockdown. “When will this nightmare end?” he asked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 11 hours ago, xxxx said: I work in the industry. These are small/medium developers. The developer puts the money in a SPV and uses it for the build. If he goes under, your name gets added to the list he owes to. 50/50 chance of getting it back. Thanks interesting to know Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregBowman Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) 23 hours ago, Peter Hun said: Fear of, or actually losing you job makes discounts irrelevant. True - on a smaller scale got a mate saying we should all go out and eat and booze to help local businesses. Right spirit I guess but there are now two distinct groups actually 3. 1. People worried about their jobs who will slash discretionary spending 2. People like me who realised even though they could afford it that spending hundreds a month in pubs often with a crowd where you only liked half of them was daft and won't be going back to that. I will be more judicious in my choices 3. Vulnerable people with the money 65+ who think that until this is properly over or a vaccine I am not going to risk it Edited July 10, 2020 by GregBowman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkD Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 11 hours ago, Switch625 said: When the developers are panicking, you know it really is game over. They will act in the same way they always do in this sort of situation ... walk away from their debts scot free and leave good businesses in the supply and building trades to suffer as a result. I worked with a guy who was a developer in the early 90's. He went bust. He couldn't sell his new builds, and prices were dropping so fast he couldn't keep up! The banks pulled the rug. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Switch625 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 If you look at all the new builds that have been going up over the last few years, I would say we are about to face a very similar situation. Flats in big towns and cities in particular look exceptionally vulnerable as do HMO's in university cities and towns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user not found Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 18 hours ago, Yvonne said: Noticed in Cambridgeshire where I've been looking over the past few months that some new builds are putting downward pressure on the market, as they are getting cheaper and cheaper....I suppose they actually need to sell these new builds.. rather than some people who just seem to put their properties on Rightmove for the hell of it. Hopefully over the next few months we'll start to see who actually needs to sell....and prices will correct...downwards. Very important point - VIs often say people just wont sell if they cant get full asking price, BUT in addition to the forced sales (death/debt/divorce) which can drag pricesdown, there are the new builds that also cant just sit empty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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