Economic collapse - or near enough - EC report on economy

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

It doesn't alarm me because I see total collapse in my sector right now (digital/tech)

Yet the government is obsessing about people buying pints and drinking coffee... the digital/IT services sector is the canary sector and we have essentially collapsed right now. Take a look at hiring data for one. 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/07/europe-recession-uk-ec-eu-recovery-plan

All bets are off where house prices are concerned. We will take years to recover - every projection I see tells us the same - and most assume the virus is fully suppressed this year. 

Give COVID-19 a few years with us and we will be living on a completely different planet, and operating within a completely different economy by 2025. Our living standards will collapse. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by gruffydd

[Freki]

1 minute ago, gruffydd said:

All bets are off where house prices are concerned. We will take years to recover - every projection I see tells us the same - and most assume the virus is fully suppressed this year. 
Give COVID-19 a few years with us and we will be living on a completely different plant, and operating within a completely different economy by 2025. Our living standards will collapse. 

 

[scottbeard]

3 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Give COVID-19 a few years with us and we will be living on a completely different planet, and operating within a completely different economy by 2025. Our living standards will collapse. 

By most measures they already have!

Just about all fun has already been cancelled for the last 4 months and most for the forseeable future, especially once the inevitable second and third waves hit.  For 6 or so weeks of that it was difficult to even get hold of toilet paper, never mind engage in the Self-Actualisation layer of Maslow's hierarchy of needs.

The economy will be completely different by 2025, but actually that's a red herring as over 5 years it usually is - just as 2010 wasn't like 2005 and 2015 wasn't like 2010. 

I think I much bigger issue is the winter of 2020/2021.  It looks set to be the most miserable 4 month period anyone under the age of about 50 will ever have experienced in their lives to date.

[ForGreatLager...]

3 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I think I much bigger issue is the winter of 2020/2021.  It looks set to be the most miserable 4 month period anyone under the age of about 50 will ever have experienced in their lives to date.

“We’re in this together.”

[Social Justice League]

The current Western consumer capitalist system died in 1989........imo

Rat b4st4rds has been desperate to keep the wheels on ever since. 

The 'money' banks create in 2020 is worth as much as that dog turd in the street.  It's backed by fook all and is just a slight of hand magic trick to fool the thick 99%.

 

Don't waste your life working for 2020 fiat.

[richmondtw]

18 hours ago, gruffydd said:

It doesn't alarm me because I see total collapse in my sector right now (digital/tech)

my co does AI + robotics we are busier than ever before

12 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Don't waste your life working for 2020 fiat.

Waste it working to pay rent

[Blink]

Points rarely taken into account...

The vast majority of those about to lose their jobs (still completely oblivious to their situation) do not realise any support they seek to cover rent will not cover the full amount. Benefits are now capped to the local area reasonable rate, usually that of a room for a single person, or a sub-standard "box" for a family. This creates two issues, unsustainable debt for the tenant who will quickly build massive rent arrears, and then that non-payment to the landlord destroying their business model.

The clock is ticking slowly down to September, the start of autumn, the start of realisation of financial implications for a great many.

Those that say "I can't see any house prices falling" are simply impatient. Furlough is medical triage on an unseen scale, and a new bandage will only hide a gaping wound for a short period of time.

[moonriver]

53 minutes ago, Blink said:

Points rarely taken into account...

The vast majority of those about to lose their jobs (still completely oblivious to their situation) do not realise any support they seek to cover rent will not cover the full amount. Benefits are now capped to the local area reasonable rate, usually that of a room for a single person, or a sub-standard "box" for a family. This creates two issues, unsustainable debt for the tenant who will quickly build massive rent arrears, and then that non-payment to the landlord destroying their business model.

The clock is ticking slowly down to September, the start of autumn, the start of realisation of financial implications for a great many.

Those that say "I can't see any house prices falling" are simply impatient. Furlough is medical triage on an unseen scale, and a new bandage will only hide a gaping wound for a short period of time.

Interesting first post.

Welcome to the forum.

I especially agree that the clock is ticking slowly, but the huge problems that this autumn/winter will bring, are  going to be huge, and a shock to many.

[Sour Mash]

On 07/07/2020 at 13:55, gruffydd said:

It doesn't alarm me because I see total collapse in my sector right now (digital/tech)

Yet the government is obsessing about people buying pints and drinking coffee... the digital/IT services sector is the canary sector and we have essentially collapsed right now. Take a look at hiring data for one. 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/07/europe-recession-uk-ec-eu-recovery-plan

All bets are off where house prices are concerned. We will take years to recover - every projection I see tells us the same - and most assume the virus is fully suppressed this year. 

Give COVID-19 a few years with us and we will be living on a completely different planet, and operating within a completely different economy by 2025. Our living standards will collapse. 

 

No - people will simply assess the real risk of the Wuhan Coronavirus to themselves and come to terms with it.  Something like <0.5% fatality rate for most against living unemployed in grinding poverty cowering in your house as the economy collapses taking with it the benefits system.  As the number of people who have had it and cleared it rises, the spread will drop off naturally from the early parabolic  levels of increased infections.

Plus treatments will get better - the efficacy of HCQ as a prophylactic is slowly being admitted by the media and medical establishment and treatment with various anti-inflammatory steroids for those with respiratory issues is proving pretty effective too.  The importance of Vitamin D is being taken on board by people and that will also cut the danger.  Maybe there will even be a vaccine.

 

The real danger is that the amount of vested interests (economic and political) using the crisis to get their hands into the honey jar or push their totalitarian agendas is going to end up causing a massive economic and societal crash.

[captainb]

13 hours ago, Blink said:

Points rarely taken into account...

The vast majority of those about to lose their jobs (still completely oblivious to their situation) do not realise any support they seek to cover rent will not cover the full amount. Benefits are now capped to the local area reasonable rate, usually that of a room for a single person, or a sub-standard "box" for a family. This creates two issues, unsustainable debt for the tenant who will quickly build massive rent arrears, and then that non-payment to the landlord destroying their business model.

The clock is ticking slowly down to September, the start of autumn, the start of realisation of financial implications for a great many.

Those that say "I can't see any house prices falling" are simply impatient. Furlough is medical triage on an unseen scale, and a new bandage will only hide a gaping wound for a short period of time.

Dont agree with that reference housing benefit 

LHA rates ars pretty generous these days. In london 2k a month for a 3 bed for example. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by captainb

[Sour Mash]

On 07/07/2020 at 17:08, scottbeard said:

I think I much bigger issue is the winter of 2020/2021.  It looks set to be the most miserable 4 month period anyone under the age of about 50 will ever have experienced in their lives to date.

 

Yep  - it's when the economic chickens come home to roost with the job losses setting in, there may well be a new wave of infection, there may also be a wave of inflation and of course you have Summer fading away and the long nights and gloomy days getting worse.

Going to be 'interesting' to see how the crowd that grew up having it easy for their whole lives deal with it.  I think we can already see a preview, in the social chaos starting to unfurl.

People are going to need to get their sh1t together - hopefully this might galvanise the gormless to get in gear so something may come out of it.

 

[poohbear]

39 minutes ago, captainb said:

Dont agree with that reference housing benefit 

LHA rates ars pretty generous these days. In london 2k a month for a 3 bed for example. 

Yes but if you are not working you get benefit capped so you will get bugger all else

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

15 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

 

No - people will simply assess the real risk of the Wuhan Coronavirus to themselves and come to terms with it.  Something like <0.5% fatality rate for most against living unemployed in grinding poverty cowering in your house as the economy collapses taking with it the benefits system.  As the number of people who have had it and cleared it rises, the spread will drop off naturally from the early parabolic  levels of increased infections.

Plus treatments will get better - the efficacy of HCQ as a prophylactic is slowly being admitted by the media and medical establishment and treatment with various anti-inflammatory steroids for those with respiratory issues is proving pretty effective too.  The importance of Vitamin D is being taken on board by people and that will also cut the danger.  Maybe there will even be a vaccine.

 

The real danger is that the amount of vested interests (economic and political) using the crisis to get their hands into the honey jar or push their totalitarian agendas is going to end up causing a massive economic and societal crash.

You miss the ongoing morbidities. What does recovery look like? The ongoing health shadow looks horrendous. 

[winkie]

Thanks to Brexit...young people will now have even fewer choices to where they can move to live for less.....will nolonger be treated as equal in 29 countries....now only those that have money will have choices..

[Blink]

16 hours ago, poohbear said:

Yes but if you are not working you get benefit capped so you will get bugger all else

As I said, most people don't have a clue what's going to hit them. Thank you for correcting him/her.

[Social Justice League]

I can see a lot of cars on those cr4p pcp deals being dropped off at Arnold Clark.

Sunak and the government have destroyed the country and are now getting desperate.  The economy is over and finished.

 

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

Thanks to Brexit...young people will now have even fewer choices to where they can move to live for less.....will nolonger be treated as equal in 29 countries....now only those that have money will have choices..

It's always the case that money gives choice.

The freedom of movement within the EU was really a bit of an illusion for young up and coming Brits - how many young people do you know who during the EU years actually moved to another EU country for work?

I know tons who went to the US, Australia and Canada - i.e. other English speaking countries - and even one who went to India and married an Indian.  But literally the only friend of mine who went to Europe went to Switzerland and married a Swiss girl (and Switzerland aren't even in the EU!).  Brits just typically don't pack their bags and move to Luxembourg, Romania or Portugal.  Or even Germany.

[winkie]

2 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

It's always the case that money gives choice.

The freedom of movement within the EU was really a bit of an illusion for young up and coming Brits - how many young people do you know who during the EU years actually moved to another EU country for work?

I know tons who went to the US, Australia and Canada - i.e. other English speaking countries - and even one who went to India and married an Indian.  But literally the only friend of mine who went to Europe went to Switzerland and married a Swiss girl (and Switzerland aren't even in the EU!).  Brits just typically don't pack their bags and move to Luxembourg, Romania or Portugal.  Or even Germany.

When times are good we blame others for wanting to better their prospects.... those that invest in learning a language, look around the world and choose a place where they can better themselves and know they will be welcome.....when times are hard we would like to do the same......will we now be welcome and how much deposit investment will we need before we begin to think about it?

[Dreamcasting]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

Thanks to Brexit...young people will now have even fewer choices to where they can move to live for less.....will nolonger be treated as equal in 29 countries....now only those that have money will have choices..

Yeah, like the majority of people had a chance of moving in the first place ?

Moving to another country was always a pipe dream to many. In any case, the grass is always greener on the other side.... that is until you get there and the reality becomes clear. Reality is however something the majority of posters on this forum haven't been able to understand for 20 years.

[Social Justice League]

2 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

Yeah, like the majority of people had a chance of moving in the first place ?

Moving to another country was always a pipe dream to many. In any case, the grass is always greener on the other side.... that is until you get there and the reality becomes clear. Reality is however something the majority of posters on this forum haven't been able to understand for 20 years.

I see the reality that our failed economic system crashed and burned in 1989.  It finally extinguished in 2008 and was put on life support until 2020 when it flatlined completely.

[Dreamcasting]

5 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

I see the reality that our failed economic system crashed and burned in 1989.  It finally extinguished in 2008 and was put on life support until 2020 when it flatlined completely.

True, but I'm more talking about house prices for the past 20 years. You are completely correct though in that the economy crashed a long time ago. And all of this happened with the UK inside the EU which blurs any argument anyone would like to make about the pros and cons of being in the EU.

Edited July 9, 2020 by Dreamcasting

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

Yeah, like the majority of people had a chance of moving in the first place ?

Moving to another country was always a pipe dream to many. In any case, the grass is always greener on the other side.... that is until you get there and the reality becomes clear. Reality is however something the majority of posters on this forum haven't been able to understand for 20 years.

How you think.... whether you believe you can, or believe you can't, you are absolutely right....just been made a whole lot harder for more people, that's all.

[NobodyInParticular]

56 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I know tons who went to the US, Australia and Canada - i.e. other English speaking countries - and even one who went to India and married an Indian.  But literally the only friend of mine who went to Europe went to Switzerland and married a Swiss girl (and Switzerland aren't even in the EU!).  Brits just typically don't pack their bags and move to Luxembourg, Romania or Portugal.  Or even Germany.

Of people I know, it's been pretty even between (US, Canada, Australia) and EEA (EU+).

[NobodyInParticular]

Of people I shared houses with as a student, two went to the USA, one came back. Two went to Europe and stayed.

[NobodyInParticular]

Actually three people at least that I know who moved to the USA came back, none from Europe so far.