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House Price Crash Forum

Buy now and watch the crash or wait and watch them go to the moon.


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7 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Not true. The UK experienced a significant real terms house price crash between 2009-12.

Only a handful of professional economists had an inkling the correction was coming.

Accept in late 2008 post lehman they all knew and predicted it. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-1651604/Hometrack-Property-prices-to-fall-10-next-year.html

In the same way post corvid predictions are for an around 10% fall.. That seems reasonable given available data and expectation. 

People on here shouting about prices falling to 2003 levels is not however based in reality 

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4 minutes ago, captainb said:

Exactly. 

The best deals from the buy side are always bank repos at auction...if you have the cash. 

Cash only, no photos, don't give a crap, no marketing etc.. Why? Because they dont give a crap about getting 100% of the value or even 90%..just thier o/s mortgage amount of 60% and the cheapest, quickest way to get that please. 

The bank does have something of an incentive to get a good price at auction because the auction buyer is actually good for the money unlike the mortgage defaulter who will have stopped opening the post or picking up the phone months ago.

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2 minutes ago, captainb said:

In the same way post corvid predictions are for an around 10% fall.. That seems reasonable given available data and expectation. 

People on here shouting about prices falling to 2003 levels is not however based in reality 

What data do you refer to?  I've seen BoE claim 16% for the year OTOH.

10% seems rather modest given the literal hit to GDP.

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24 minutes ago, blackhole said:

Thanks to this website sure I may have rented for longer, but I won't be the one stuck with a massive mortgage around my neck either, dictating my life choices for the next 25yrs+ ?

(ok, business went much better than expected....)

I've never understood that argument. I rented for a long time and I found I still had to pay a large percentage of my wage at the end of the month. Thus the necessity of needing that roof over my head was dictating my life choices... Not whether that money was repaying a loan or not. As far as I can tell, renting only makes sense of you're moving a lot for work or qualify for housing benefit. Most don't. 

Each to their own. The OP asked for opinions. I think if it's a family home and affordable he'd be mad to risk it.

However this is the site to come to if you want talking out of buying, so he'll probably sit tight. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

The bank does have something of an incentive to get a good price at auction because the auction buyer is actually good for the money unlike the mortgage defaulter who will have stopped opening the post or picking up the phone months ago.

Nah. Any excess above the mortgage amount goes to the former homeowner bank couldnt care less if its a pound or 100k as long as they get their loan back

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5 minutes ago, locky82 said:

I've never understood that argument. I rented for a long time and I found I still had to pay a large percentage of my wage at the end of the month. Thus the necessity of needing that roof over my head was dictating my life choices... Not whether that money was repaying a loan or not. As far as I can tell, renting only makes sense of you're moving a lot for work or qualify for housing benefit. Most don't. 

Each to their own. The OP asked for opinions. I think if it's a family home and affordable he'd be mad to risk it.

However this is the site to come to if you want talking out of buying, so he'll probably sit tight. 

I've been rather fortunate that my living costs are sub 10% of my income and have been for quite a while, and as mentioned been picking about where I've rented so not had much issues tbh. 

The point is big mortgages that most people take on are lifelong, game-changing types of commitments.    I admit i'm allergic to high levels of personal debt.  

In the OP's case if buying a place outweighs losing some cash potentially, then I agree get on with it.  

Edited by blackhole
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4 minutes ago, blackhole said:

What data do you refer to?  I've seen BoE claim 16% for the year OTOH.

10% seems rather modest given the literal hit to GDP.

That BOE was a stress test not prediction just badly reported by certain media outlets. A stress test is worst possible but reasonable scenario to see if the banks could cope, not what is likely to happen. Of course worst possible outcome is asteroid impact but we don't need to model that. 

Mosy industry forecasts range from vested heavily in the 0 to negative 5% camp to a more reasonable 10% fall. Best souce is banking stock analysis, for something like lloyds their share price is heavily weighted by the residential market. Those commenting dont really care if its negative 5 or 10 they make money by being right. 

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2 minutes ago, captainb said:

Nah. Any excess above the mortgage amount goes to the former homeowner bank couldnt care less if its a pound or 100k as long as they get their loan back

There won't be an "excess above the mortgage amount" once the borrower is finished using up any equity they once had in the form of mortgage holidays and being forced onto SVR because nobody will touch their delinquent loan with a bargepole.

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2 minutes ago, captainb said:

Mosy industry forecasts range from vested heavily in the 0 to negative 5% camp to a more reasonable 10% fall. Best souce is banking stock analysis, for something like lloyds their share price is heavily weighted by the residential market. Those commenting dont really care if its negative 5 or 10 they make money by being right. 

Fair enough, still seems modest to me given the absolute blood bath that is CMBS.  

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Just now, Dorkins said:

There won't be an "excess above the mortgage amount" once the borrower is finished using up any equity they once had in the form of mortgage holidays and being forced onto SVR because nobody will touch their delinquent loan with a bargepole.

None of that makes any difference. 

House valued at £500k pre covid

Mortgage outstanding £350k. Borrowerer does all the things with SVR, not opening post yadda yadda.. Mortgage outstanding is still £350k plus a few fees. 

Into the auction we go... Bank doesn't give a crap as long as sale price less commission is 350k. Hence no marketing cash only sale etc. 

If they get 375k or 400k or 425k it really is of no interest to them 

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6 minutes ago, blackhole said:

Fair enough, still seems modest to me given the absolute blood bath that is CMBS.  

Sure but would you rather have a retail unit now or a housing one? 

People need a place to live but a place to shop physically rather than via the Internet.. Less certain than 6 months ago. 

Additionally there are a lot more potential buyers for a two bed flat than a shopping centre. 

If you look at rhe net assets of the REITs holding that stuff the retial valuations have dropped 22% which is the worst performing element. 

Again dire but not the armageddon levels that people on here talk about

Edited by captainb
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5 minutes ago, captainb said:

Accept in late 2008 post lehman they all knew and predicted it. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-1651604/Hometrack-Property-prices-to-fall-10-next-year.html

In the same way post corvid predictions are for an around 10% fall.. That seems reasonable given available data and expectation. 

People on here shouting about prices falling to 2003 levels is not however based in reality 

A few people knew, ofc. Mostly traders not economists. We've all seen the Big Short.

A 10-15% discount over 2019 will do for me. I simply can't sit out another decade trying to time the market. My greatest regret is not pulling the trigger in 2011, even though I'd marked out Cameron and Osborne as hopeless chancers.

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8 minutes ago, captainb said:

None of that makes any difference. 

House valued at £500k pre covid

Mortgage outstanding £350k. Borrowerer does all the things with SVR, not opening post yadda yadda.. Mortgage outstanding is still £350k plus a few fees. 

Into the auction we go... Bank doesn't give a crap as long as sale price less commission is 350k. Hence no marketing cash only sale etc. 

If they get 375k or 400k or 425k it really is of no interest to them 

What's better for the bank, absorb £150k of the borrower's equity in the form of mortgage holidays and SVR and then repo and sell at auction or quick repo and sell at auction for a net profit of £0? The bank will do what is best for the bank, and that means absorbing the borrower's equity first. It is right there on a plate in front of them, just tuck in.

Edited by Dorkins
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1 minute ago, captainb said:

Sure but would you rather have a retail unit now or a housing one? 

People need a place to live but a place to shop physically rather than via the Internet.. Less certain than 6 months ago. 

Additionally there are a lot more potential buyers for a two bed flat than a shopping centre. 

Sorry to be circular about this - we've both been here before - people do need jobs to rent/buy a place.

Should CMBS fall over, that suggests the businesses inside are also not paying rent, leading to job collapses etc etc.

Contray to belief not all jobs can be done from home ? 

Edited by blackhole
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2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

What's better for the bank, absorb £150k of the borrower's equity in the form of mortgage holidays and SVR and then repo and sell at auction or quick repo and sell at auction for a net profit of £0? The bank will do what is best for the bank, and that means absorbing the borrower's equity first.

But they are not obsorbing anything in a mortgage holiday or svr. Amounts shifting based on that are peanuts compared to the actual amount of cash lent in the first place (which isnt changing) 

Agreed the bank will do what's best for the bank which will be to wack into auction with the lowest possible selling cost and lowest admin completion 

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14 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

A 10-15% discount over 2019 will do for me

Snap.

That kind of fall would do me nicely. If it's more, then all the better.

Roll on Q3, let's see what insanity it brings us.

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Have about 30% deposit here. I’m planning on inflation within the next year. Looking to act like Covid hasn’t happened. If it looked like a good deal 6 months ago I reckon it’s worth chasing as others might not. Then bunker down and take what comes in terms of inflation. Think the whole world is going to inflate this away

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2 minutes ago, RomfordDon said:

Buy the house on a ten year fix.

Let your lad pick the colour of his wallpaper.

Every year that goes past is a year you never get back. Plus your lad only gets one childhood!

We live in a private rental and painted the kids' bedroom when we moved in and put stickers of castles and animals on the walls to make it look nice for them. When we move out we will take the stickers off and repaint the walls. It really isn't a big deal.

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1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

We live in a private rental and painted the kids' bedroom when we moved in and put stickers of castles and animals on the walls to make it look nice for them. When we move out we will take the stickers off and repaint the walls. It really isn't a big deal.

That depends on the landlord mine does inspections ?

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48 minutes ago, Timm said:

If you want it and you can afford it: Buy it and buy it now. If you don't want it, or you can't afford it: Don't buy it.

It's always a gamble not to buy.

But at the moment, its a gamble to buy.

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I am learning my own lesson from the recent stock market crash. I had been cash for a couple of years, waiting for the moment. Then when it came, I was too scared of it falling further that I missed the moment. Now, I am still thinking there will be a second leg down later in the year, but I doubt we will see the lows of March again.

So with housing I am not going to repeat my mistake. I was on the verge of buying at the beginning of the year...one day away from exchanging contracts, but they provided dodgy documentation for an extension so we pulled out. We are paying nose bleed rents, but that has been a massive boon during lockdown As it is a big country house, but we want to buy sooner rather than later. I am looking at people who are very motivated sellers at the moment, and offering 10% off asking, and prepared to be in a position with 80% deposit, and a modest fixed rate mortgage. If I can’t get that now, I believe I will get that by default come January-March next year...but like others on here, I believe that the government will underpin the market beyond a 20% drop. I am not going to try to guess the bottom.

Once I have bought a house, I will block the link to this Site, ignore headlines about property crashes, and get on with the rest of my life.

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11 hours ago, blackhole said:

October october october.... you still need jobs to create your miracle HPI++++ forever gravy train. 

Keep posting though, I do enjoy it ? 

You can write what you think will happen all you like.  Doesn't mean the brits will take it.  We aren't asia...

Just wait, you'll see when prices go up and gentrification, will recreate order. You just don't get it do you.. 

11 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Err - no.  75% LTV is not 3:1 leverage at all.

75% LTV means house prices can fall up to 25% without the bank being at risk of losing a single penny.  Almost exactly the opposite about what you're saying about the banks having more to lose than the average Joe?  

The buyers capital, is exposed before theres. I didn't realise that... ???If house prices crashed 50%, your in negative equity, defaults will increase, ratio of risk changes, banks are now 2:0 exposed and have lost already. If the bank repossess, on mass, house prices will tank big time, believe it or not there not that stupid. 

 

11 hours ago, Deckard said:

Yep, and failing miserably.

Speedo's compulsive posting about his financial acumen (LOL) simply highlights his fear and desperation.

Just another lifetime debt slave trapped in negative equity, hopelessly praying for hyperinflation to save his sorry @rse. :lol:

I'm fine financially, whatever happens.. I hope you all time the market 100% and make a killing. I don't need any inflation. 

11 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Except that savers and the asset-poor constitute a majority of the electorate. You expect them to keep voting Tory while you and your bankster chums make off with an ever-greater share of the national output? Sorry, Marie Antoinette. Either Johnson delivers on his Red Wall promises, or the tumbrils will roll.

The poor vote for who they are manipulated to vote for, simple. Throw some cash, paint immigrants as the problem and they'll all vote Tory. Not that the Tory party actually cares about immigration.... the Tories have just been re-elected.

 

 

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1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

Once I have bought a house, I will block the link to this Site, ignore headlines about property crashes, and get on with the rest of my life.

Same here. I stopped looking at this site, the internet and any news 10 years ago. It was all getting too stressful. I got on with my life and it was nice and calm. An article about S24 and BTL brought me back.

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. 

 

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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