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Buy now and watch the crash or wait and watch them go to the moon.


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I live in a small town near Sheffield andI've been waiting for the crash that never came since about 2007.  About 6 months ago I had become so tired of renting,. Having a young lad, and being 39 I'd had enough and decided to take the plunge, found a house I really liked for a really good price considering the Pre-Covid market and had the sale all agreed STC.  Then Covid happened and the vendors, being elderly couldn't go anywhere. I instantly had no work and since I work for my own company I went down to about 1/4 my normal salary.  We waited for a month or so to see whether things would settle but I thought the financial fallout and unemployment rates around me would be so catastrophic house prices would surely suffer and, coupled with my own uncertain earning potential, we pulled out; I just couldn't bear waiting nearly 15 years and then buying just before the crash.

So I was happy with the decision but now there seems to be a lot of speculation that the govt will print and print until this can be inflated away which will put upward pressure on hard assets wich would also be galling to watch myself get priced out again.

I'm no expert on economics but just about understand the arguments for possible inflation and hyperinflation as well as deflation but with all my life savings in cash and shares I feel this could really be a pivotal moment for people like me.  Is there any consensus on here as to which is most likely?  Given the signals from the Govt could this actually be the time to buy? I appreciate no-one can predict the future but what do we thinkk?

 

 

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4 hours ago, fleabag said:

I live in a small town near Sheffield andI've been waiting for the crash that never came since about 2007.  About 6 months ago I had become so tired of renting,. Having a young lad, and being 39 I'd had enough and decided to take the plunge, found a house I really liked for a really good price considering the Pre-Covid market and had the sale all agreed STC.  Then Covid happened and the vendors, being elderly couldn't go anywhere. I instantly had no work and since I work for my own company I went down to about 1/4 my normal salary.  We waited for a month or so to see whether things would settle but I thought the financial fallout and unemployment rates around me would be so catastrophic house prices would surely suffer and, coupled with my own uncertain earning potential, we pulled out; I just couldn't bear waiting nearly 15 years and then buying just before the crash.

So I was happy with the decision but now there seems to be a lot of speculation that the govt will print and print until this can be inflated away which will put upward pressure on hard assets wich would also be galling to watch myself get priced out again.

I'm no expert on economics but just about understand the arguments for possible inflation and hyperinflation as well as deflation but with all my life savings in cash and shares I feel this could really be a pivotal moment for people like me.  Is there any consensus on here as to which is most likely?  Given the signals from the Govt could this actually be the time to buy? I appreciate no-one can predict the future but what do we thinkk?

Are you a potential cash buyer, or would you need a mortgage?  If you need a mortgage and have the risk that your earnings could drop at any moment by 75%, doesn't that basically make it pretty risky to buy now whatever happens to the housing market?

My general rule about all of life is that the outcome is better than the pessimists think and worse than the optimists think - which means we are unlikely to have EITHER a neat V shaped recovery OR some of the outlandish things you see on this website (my favourite one a few years back was at the time of the Lehman's collapse in October 2008 some people were predicting the UK would run out of food by mid-2009!)

Investors in everything are so often motivated by Greed and Fear.  It generally pays to be more objective if you can be.  For example, true hyperinflation to me feels an unlikely scenario - and if we really did get HYPERinflation  (you know, the UK became like Zimbabwe or Venezuela) would you really even want that house?  You'd probably want to be on the plane to a safer country with your young son under your arm.

Whilst I would "never say never", it's far more likely we will be in a nasty, but less apocopalytic, recession.  Whether that looks like the deflationary depression of the 1930s, or an inflation burst like the 1970/80s, I have no idea.

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1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Are you a potential cash buyer, or would you need a mortgage?  If you need a mortgage and have the risk that your earnings could drop at any moment by 75%, doesn't that basically make it pretty risky to buy now whatever happens to the housing market?

My general rule about all of life is that the outcome is better than the pessimists think and worse than the optimists think - which means we are unlikely to have EITHER a neat V shaped recovery OR some of the outlandish things you see on this website (my favourite one a few years back was at the time of the Lehman's collapse in October 2008 some people were predicting the UK would run out of food by mid-2009!)

Investors in everything are so often motivated by Greed and Fear.  It generally pays to be more objective if you can be.  For example, true hyperinflation to me feels an unlikely scenario - and if we really did get HYPERinflation  (you know, the UK became like Zimbabwe or Venezuela) would you really even want that house?  You'd probably want to be on the plane to a safer country with your young son under your arm.

Whilst I would "never say never", it's far more likely we will be in a nasty, but less apocopalytic, recession.  Whether that looks like the deflationary depression of the 1930s, or an inflation burst like the 1970/80s, I have no idea.

Quite. My personal view is a -10% nominal fall coming through peak to trough in the ONS data.

Yes we could have hyperinflation - from this point of erm.. 0.5% at the moment.. but seems more likely not.

Yes the government could collapse and everyone will have to start again from great socialist principles.. but yeah.. that vote didnt happen in 2019.

Yes we could all think currency is useless and go and barter goats for gold.. those that were lucky enough to GET IN NOW.. but seems unlikely, and if it did, who cares about house prices - wheres my shotgun.

 

Ultimately its a house. You own it or you rent it. Having done both i can tell you paying off your own mortgage is more "pleasurable" than paying off someone else's whatever some of the loons on here say.

After 10 years... you really can tell the difference, and when the mortgage is cheaper than the rent for a lot of people its a no brainer. Yes; some of them buying might be "morons from mumsnet" but those morons who chucked a dart at an agents board 10 years ago have done pretty well...on that timescale i wouldn't bet against it happening in some form again.

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You have to do what is right for you and your situation.  No one can predict what is going to happen.  I see an economy collapse, that is the natural conclusion of Covid.  A long recession was the natural conclusion for 2008, but it never happened.  I wouldn’t put anything past this government and keep an open mind.


I don’t see anyway that house prices cannot crash in the next few years, with the economy as it is today.   There is no structure in the housing market and it is based on sentiment and the need to own a home.  I do not see anyway that house prices can be supported and not fall.  But then market manipulation is the name of the game.


I do see however, a long hard recession/depression for many years, with high unemployment.  Even the royal household are making vast redundancies.
 

If we go into lockdown again, will you be able to pay your mortgage.  Will you obtain a mortgage?  After six months, your mortgage  offer must have expired?

 

I do see both inflation and rates at double figures within the next 10 years.  Me personally,, I have positioned myself ready to buy.  I will be buying in the next 18 months.  I believe it will be then or never.  Just waiting for the right time and being realistic.  
 

Reality hasn’t hit home for many people, although lots have stopped wasting money on crap.  Lots don’t realise they won’t have a job to go back to.  Car sales have slumped and that is a good indication of where house prices will go.  Lots see this as a mid cycle dip and are buying.    Do you follow the crowd or wait for the big one?


I am reluctant to say more and what I truly believe will happen to house prices over the next 18 months.  You have to base your decision on how you feel, what is right for you and not listen to others.

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I have 2/3 of the value in cash but I would get a mortgage for most of it.  My earnings can and have dropped but I'm reasonably confident I could find an employed position if I needed to down the road so it would most likely be temporary even if partial lockdown continues.

I think your rule of somewhere between the optimists and pessimists predictions is a good middle ground.  it's a shame governments prefer can kicking to small short shocks as it makes finincial winners and losers out of people just trying to live their lives.

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All I can add is, why not move some of your cash into something more tangible such as other forms of assets whilst you mull your decision?  It doesn't have to be gold, bitcoin etc.  Could be something you value and enjoy, yet doesn't move a great deal in terms of value.

From the data i've seen so far, V-Shaped is dead on arrival.  

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6 hours ago, fleabag said:

I appreciate no-one can predict the future but what do we think

I have never bought but have a healthy deposit. The very earliest I could have bought would have been 2007, so avoided that bullet. Arguably should have bought in 2012, but personal circumstances, job etc. not favourable at the time.

I had planned to buy later this year as I am fed up of the vested interests in this country constantly adding more fuel to what is completely unsustainable. COVID-19 has put a stop to that and now I am watching with keen interest as this awful melodrama plays out and I continue to build my deposit. Fully intending to buy in 12-18 months depending upon how the market looks at that time.

What should happen? Things are so far beyond sensible, due to excessive lending and government props that a 40-60% falls would be entirely reasonable.

What will probably happen? Turkey's don't vote for Christmas and you can bet they will throw the kitchen sink at this. What daft scheme they will use I couldn't tell you, but it will be disguised as help, when a closer analogy would be giving a bottle of Scotch to an alcoholic. My best guess is 10-20% falls will result independent of government interference.

What will actually happen? Your guess is as good as mine. I didn't expect any great falls until the initial props ran out, furlough etc. so I think things will start in September/October, the early stuff is just background noise so I am rather sanguine about Rishi's latest little wheeze. What actually counts is unemployment.

The key is unemployment. If they control unemployment by some means then I expect the lower end of falls to occur. If unemployment rises so will the falls. If they loose control of unemployment then it truly will be full crash ahead independent of the props.

As always, 'You pays your money, you take your chance'. Good luck to you

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6 hours ago, fleabag said:

(...)

I'm no expert on economics but just about understand the arguments for possible inflation and hyperinflation as well as deflation but with all my life savings in cash and shares I feel this could really be a pivotal moment for people like me.  Is there any consensus on here as to which is most likely?  Given the signals from the Govt could this actually be the time to buy? I appreciate no-one can predict the future but what do we thinkk?

 

Ignore what they signal and watch what they do.

What they do is: 1 Nothing. 2 Refuse to take the blame. 3 Panic and take the easy way out.

This is why I am expecting a nominal crash of about 15%, followed by a ton of waffle and blame passing, followed (instantly) by total panic to prop up the market by AnyMeansNecessary, all funded by blatant printing. Result: The rest of the crash (in house prices and living standards) will be in real terms, not nominal.

This is my own personal opinion and should not be taken as advice. Apart from anything else, catching the nominal bottom will be like trying to catch a greased pig falling at terminal velocity onto an infinitely strong trampoline.

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24 minutes ago, Timm said:

Ignore what they signal and watch what they do.

What they do is: 1 Nothing. 2 Refuse to take the blame. 3 Panic and take the easy way out.

This is why I am expecting a nominal crash of about 15%, followed by a ton of waffle and blame passing, followed (instantly) by total panic to prop up the market by AnyMeansNecessary, all funded by blatant printing. Result: The rest of the crash (in house prices and living standards) will be in real terms, not nominal.

This is my own personal opinion and should not be taken as advice. Apart from anything else, catching the nominal bottom will be like trying to catch a greased pig falling at terminal velocity onto an infinitely strong trampoline.

And that is key. People on this site love to trade with hindsight. I would have... Well its obvious when you have the historical price graph in front of you. Well done. 

Waiting for a 25% fall is all well and good but if the market bottoms out at 20% before rebounding.. Its not a great place to be. 

 

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32 minutes ago, Switch625 said:

 

The key is unemployment. If they control unemployment by some means then I expect the lower end of falls to occur. If unemployment rises so will the falls. If they loose control of unemployment then it truly will be full crash ahead independent of the props.

As always, 'You pays your money, you take your chance'. Good luck to you

What about landlords buying with cash and, in some areas foreign buyers bouyed by favourable exchange rates, helping put a floor under the market?  

The proportion of "owners" without mortgages always sounds low to me. Which makes me think that although employment is key it's probably not the only key.

Do not put it past HMG to use migration to support prices. The benefits bill where applicable can always be passed onto the next government. The county council here are advertising for landlords to rent via them, citing no risk, which I guess means the landlord always gets paid and by the council tax payer where necessary.  

And maybe housing will ultimately be bought by the state, if all else fails, and rented out to arrivals.

I sincerely hope there is no likelihood of any of the above but I fear otherwise.

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My perspective is, buy NOW!

This is a different type of capitalism.

Boomers saved and bought, with plentiful housing after ww1&2, following in 1971 the link between gold and money was removed, we now have fiat.

Immigration will continue to rise, contrast Tory politics and their stance on HK.

Fiat is basically backed by the power of that nation, mostly military power and influence. US is still the #1 power, people say they are at the mercy of the Oil producers, but they are not, they print money ???. Why invade?

All current goverment & banks actions lead to propping up the house market. Mortgage holidays, no repossessions, Furlough, stamp duty breaks possibly & low interest rates.

They cannot lower interest rates further, only tools left are, direct money supply in the form of borrowing, QE & inflation.

Hence, a gift to home owners today, in the form of home improvements (thank you my friends). They are rewarding my financial intelligence.

Debt is used to generate wealth, if used correctly. Therefore the capitalists will not punish those whom hold it, those whom are overleveraged will suffer from their own mismanagement and lack of control. That's down to your ability.

Just remember, the banks & government are set to loose much more, than you are, if the markets goes south. LTV of 75%, is essentially 3:1 risk on the banks part. The banks, influence the government they are all friends...

As we increase the money supply, house prices are increasing, part of this is real wealth, from immigration and advancement of our economy and part is from devaluation of Sterling and the dollar.

Now the reason, your writing this is because you can see the game, is skewed and that's because it is....

So buy a house and move on with your life, before inflation devalues your savings.

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Hence, a gift to home owners today, in the form of home improvements (thank you my friends). They are rewarding my financial intelligence.

It's direct injection to builders for some insulation work, with the view of reducing energy consumption / hitting co2 targets.  Sure it'll help your bills, but its really helicopter for builders. 

4 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

So buy a house and move on with your life, before inflation devalues your savings.

So here's the thing I'd like to openly ask.  If they get the runaway inflation they desire (which if you trust current inflation trackers for the last decade.... hasnt happened); what are the secondary effects?  We as a nation import a hell of a lot of good and services, including food.  

7 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

As we increase the money supply, house prices are increasing, part of this is real wealth, from immigration and advancement of our economy and part is from devaluation of Sterling and the dollar.

You need high employment to underpin this.  Unless the lending standards enable the old NINJA loans again (no income, no job, and no assets) that is.   Come end of Sept we'll soon find out...

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13 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Debt is used to generate wealth, if used correctly. Therefore the capitalists will not punish those whom hold it, those whom are overleveraged will suffer from their own mismanagement and lack of control. That's down to your ability.

More than you think are living on the edge.  Why else do governments whisk up furlough programmes?  Can kicking.

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8 minutes ago, blackhole said:

Come end of Sept we'll soon find out...

Agreed. All is just noise until then. Advice to buy NOW! or trying time the nominal bottom of any drop is about as useful as ...

53 minutes ago, Timm said:

trying to catch a greased pig falling at terminal velocity onto an infinitely strong trampoline

I am going to see where we are in September/October and make my mind up then based upon the market trajectory.

PS; Much respect for that one liner Timm ?

Edited by Switch625
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1 minute ago, blackhole said:

It's direct injection to builders for some insulation work, with the view of reducing energy consumption / hitting co2 targets.  Sure it'll help your bills, but its really helicopter for builders. 

So here's the thing I'd like to openly ask.  If they get the runaway inflation they desire (which if you trust current inflation trackers for the last decade.... hasnt happened); what are the secondary effects?  We as a nation import a hell of a lot of good and services, including food.  

You need high employment to underpin this.  Unless the lending standards enable the old NINJA loans again (no income, no job, and no assets) that is.   Come end of Sept we'll soon find out...

Don't forget, capitalists don't really care about CO2 emissions, it's a gift disguised by a good cause.

As you point out, it gives builders work and improves the aesthetics and efficiency of homes, therefore increasing there worth. Increasing spending power of that house.

Your second point, all over countries are in the same postion, wether they are honest about death counts or are delaying, they are only shuffling. We have also, saved on spending, by nursing home deaths.

Inflation trackers are ********, again illusion, you know this... everything costs more money, food, electricity bill, productivity increases more work for less pay. However some areas are getting to tight, theres less slack. The government can just print or loan money as they have done to bail out companies and will continue. Regardless of what they say, they will continue...

People, keep going on about jobs, the goverment will support those who can go back to work, they will create new work, for those who cannot such as they did today. If not, benefits will become more generous. 

Just think realistically, covid19 has a 0.02% death rate for the working population? Do you really think this is all about Covid19 or a reshuffling of the economy, getting rid of ******** jobs which don't actually create real value.

House prices will not fall substantially, there not going to let that happen.

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Have alook what happened to house prices across the spanish flu and what the governments of that time were doing, house prices still increased 20% by the end...

They will just devalue and devalue Sterling in anyway, they can through borrowing, QE or inflation.

People will say, you are just referencing history... no its human behaviour to protect you wealth and assets. Housing once owned, is an infinite asset.

So stop thinking all these capitalists are all dumb and waiting to lose money, I will take your money before I lose mine, that's for sure.

Edited by Speed1987
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5 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

My perspective is, buy NOW!

(...)

 

Hmm. That may well turn out to be the best advice, but I don't think it answers the questions posed in the OP, which were:

Quote

Is there any consensus on here as to which [inflation / deflation] is most likely?  Given the signals from the Govt could this actually be the time to buy? I appreciate no-one can predict the future but what do we think?

I really do think there will be further nominal falls later this year, so deflation. And I think it is only this actual deflation in the nominal prices of traded financial assets that will trigger the panic and so, the inflation. I do think therefore that there will be a window of opportunity to purchase a hedge against inflation at a reduced price. My guess would be that this will be when the protection for employment / business is eased off and actual (non seasonally adjusted) house prices go into their winter dip.

But this is not advice; it is just what I think. The funny thing is, I do have some real world experience in these matters (detailed many years ago on these very boards) that might give me some authority to give actual advise. But the only advice I have ever given in the real world is this:

If you want it and you can afford it: Buy it and buy it now. If you don't want it, or you can't afford it: Don't buy it.

I know it sounds facile and a cop out, but it is the closest I have ever come to helpful and reliable insight.

 

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18 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Don't forget, capitalists don't really care about CO2 emissions, it's a gift disguised by a good cause.

As you point out, it gives builders work and improves the aesthetics and efficiency of homes, therefore increasing there worth. Increasing spending power of that house.

I suspect it'll be a little more specific than "uplift anyone's house", as per the last scheme (!).

18 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Your second point, all over countries are in the same postion, wether they are honest about death counts or are delaying, they are only shuffling. We have also, saved on spending, by nursing home deaths.

So?

18 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

People, keep going on about jobs, the goverment will support those who can go back to work, they will create new work, for those who cannot such as they did today. If not, benefits will become more generous. 

I do wonder what planet are you on?  Sunak has been giving out peanuts as of late - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/06/chancellor-set-to-announce-3bn-green-investment-package Germany are spending £36bn compared to our £3bn here.  

18 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Just think realistically, covid19 has a 0.02% death rate for the working population? Do you really think this is all about Covid19 or a reshuffling of the economy, getting rid of ******** jobs which don't actually create real value.

It's not about death rates, people have changed/adapted as per the retail thread on this forum (where in many spots things have died down significantly). 

Also the long term health implications (be it mental and/or physical) are somewhat unknown at this stage.  Simply put, the USA figures have shown dramatic falls in retail consumption and what-not after re-opening, and I suspect the UK numbers will reflect similar too (post reopening).

On a positive note COVID has enabled friends of mine in the tech industry to GTFO of the south once and for all, due to their companies fully embracing remote working.  Good luck SE house prices.... Tech salaries are one of the few that have genuinely beaten inflation over the last decade.

18 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

House prices will not fall substantially, there not going to let that happen.

You fail to recognise that they may not care if they fall, if they can once again blame COVID for everything. 

Currently Sunak is playing optics by giving a "stamp duty holiday" - sure, it appears he's helping you, just a little...

Less spending on housing / mortgages means more for the wider economy.  High costs of living make the UK non-competitive.  

Edited by blackhole
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4 minutes ago, Timm said:

Hmm. That may well turn out to be the best advice, but I don't think it answers the questions posed in the OP, which were:

I really do think there will be further nominal falls later this year, so deflation. And I think it is only this actual deflation in the nominal prices of traded financial assets that will trigger the panic and so, the inflation. I do think therefore that there will be a window of opportunity to purchase a hedge against inflation at a reduced price. My guess would be that this will be when the protection for employment / business is eased off and actual (non seasonally adjusted) house prices go into their winter dip.

But this is not advice; it is just what I think. The funny thing is, I do have some real world experience in these matters (detailed many years ago on these very boards) that might give me some authority to give actual advise. But the only advice I have ever given in the real world is this:

If you want it and you can afford it: Buy it and buy it now. If you don't want it, or you can't afford it: Don't buy it.

I know it sounds facile and a cop out, but it is the closest I have ever come to helpful and reliable insight.

 

As trying to time the bottom is a real risk, in itself if you get caught out...

Buying now and being able to afford the repayments is much more sensible and when inflation comes and yove fixed that mortgage for 10 years, your winning all the way.

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1 minute ago, Speed1987 said:

As trying to time the bottom is a real risk, in itself if you get caught out...

Buying now and being able to afford the repayments is much more sensible and when inflation comes and yove fixed that mortgage for 10 years, your winning all the way.

Better off waiting till October at least, when furlough scheme comes off surely?!

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2 minutes ago, blackhole said:

I suspect it'll be a little more specific than "uplift anyone's house", as per the last scheme (!).

So?

I do wonder what planet are you on?  Sunak has been giving out peanuts as of late - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/06/chancellor-set-to-announce-3bn-green-investment-package Germany are spending £36bn compared to our £3bn here.  

It's not about death rates, people have changed/adapted as per the retail thread on this forum (where in many spots things have died down significantly). 

Also the long term health implications (be it mental and/or physical) are somewhat unknown at this stage.  Simply put, the USA figures have shown dramatic falls in retail consumption and what-not after re-opening, and I suspect the UK numbers will reflect similar too (post reopening).

You fail to recognise that they may not care if they fall, if they can once again blame COVID for everything. 

Currently Sunak is playing optics by giving a "stamp duty holiday" - sure, it appears he's helping you, just a little...

Less spending on housing / mortgages means more for the wider economy.  High costs of living make the UK non-competitive.  

Of course they care house prices fall, half the wealth of these MPs are tied up in houses ffs....

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1 minute ago, Speed1987 said:

Of course they care house prices fall, half the wealth of these MPs are tied up in houses ffs....

And?  Inflation has nasty side effects.... there's no free lunch here.

Also house prices have actually fallen before during a Tory government, 1989-96?  It's not impossible, even if all the MPs "own".

Edited by blackhole
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18 minutes ago, blackhole said:

And?  Inflation has nasty side effects.... there's no free lunch here.

Also house prices have actually fallen before during a Tory government, 1989-96?  It's not impossible, even if all the MPs "own".

House prices, fell yes, but those with fixed mortgage debts, actually won yea? 

Unlikely to happen now, as it would upset HTB mortgage holders who vote Tory.

Instead, you'll be able afford less food and other ********, you dont really need. Stop all the obesity.

Why take from us, when we can take your money from your savings and reduce the amount of purchasing power you have.

Then instead of London, people will be dreaming of owning a house in Birmingham or Mancheser, then in 10-20 more years, even liverpool will be out of reach. Those who cannot afford will be crammed into ex commercial buildings, like the old work houses.

If people don't like it, stuff them, we will just continue to bring in more ceap labour and the wealthy to replace you, while people moan about those prices. This labour will be happy, as they used to live in huts.

LL will continue to rent to these types. Who keep waiting for a 10-20% crash.

That's what's gonna happen, if anyone is gonna suffer it will be savers and the poor.

Your deluding yourself, just buy and get on with life, I'm trying to help you.

 

 

Edited by Speed1987
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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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