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I'm in my local town centre. First time since march. I'm looking at the large number of shops that have not yet re-opened. I think they're a good indicator of ones that never will. Travel agents, some cafes and bakeries, Clintons. 

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1 hour ago, Sausage said:

I'm in my local town centre. First time since march. I'm looking at the large number of shops that have not yet re-opened. I think they're a good indicator of ones that never will. Travel agents, some cafes and bakeries, Clintons. 

Yes, I have noticed as well perhaps paying 3 months rent with nothing coming in means it’s over for many, both pubs near my house are open but nearly no customers, coronovirus might have also have made people buy alcohol in supermarkets for much cheaper than pubs/wine bars

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15 minutes ago, shlomo said:

Yes, I have noticed as well perhaps paying 3 months rent with nothing coming in means it’s over for many, both pubs near my house are open but nearly no customers, coronovirus might have also have made people buy alcohol in supermarkets for much cheaper than pubs/wine bars

Same here - local village pub is dead. Average customer age is about 75 so I guess their core customer base are too scared to venture out. The landlords must be hanging on by their finger nails.

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17 minutes ago, Odysseus said:

Same here - local village pub is dead. Average customer age is about 75 so I guess their core customer base are too scared to venture out. The landlords must be hanging on by their finger nails.

It is also programming, 3 months of not going somewhere you come to the realisation it was not important, I went to the barbershop I was the only customer I was surprised as I thought it would have been packed, we have changed as a people 

wars and famines and experience change a people we are not the same I think we lost the work ethic 

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3 hours ago, Sausage said:

I'm in my local town centre. First time since march. I'm looking at the large number of shops that have not yet re-opened. I think they're a good indicator of ones that never will. Travel agents, some cafes and bakeries, Clintons. 

Are all of those usually open on a Sunday?

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2 hours ago, Odysseus said:

Same here - local village pub is dead. Average customer age is about 75 so I guess their core customer base are too scared to venture out. The landlords must be hanging on by their finger nails.

The over 70's are HUGE consumers.  They have huge pensions, some have made hundreds of thousands by downsizing, why do you think the cruise industry has grown so quickly in the past 10 years.  We have a local restaurant (Sussex), a posh one, 45quid per person for 3 course lunch/dinner, open 7 days a week, probably 20 tables+.....anyway 2 month waiting list, even Wednesday lunchtimes are packed out, and guess what..more than 80% are over 70's.   Go to any pub or restaurant on a weekday and they are rammed with over 70's.   Take away these customers and you take away every penny of profit these places make 

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31 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

So many business were cutting it too fine during the good times...so now theres no fat to feed on when the times change.

My impression is that businesses were hollowed out by landlords and rates and a host of other rent seekers in the good times, so have no chance of carrying on at less than full capacity now. 

Commercial rents must now be collapsing. 

So the landlords will be pursuing the bankrupt business owners for the difference in about 5 years ( on their personal guarantees). 

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23 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I'm wondering whether covid19 has a big economic silver lining in clearing out the zombie companies....

It had crossed my mind that the co-ordinated global response might be explained if this were to have been the reason for it.

The WEF - as championed by Prince Charles - has come out in favour of a "Great Reset" as being a policy to be pursued by governments.

It feels to me as if the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 financail year transition was an economic pivot point.  Do other countries have a financial year that runs from ~April to March?

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Just now, A.steve said:

It had crossed my mind that the co-ordinated global response might be explained if this were to have been the reason for it.

The WEF - as championed by Prince Charles - has come out in favour of a "Great Reset" as being a policy to be pursued by governments.

It feels to me as if the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 financail year transition was an economic pivot point.  Do other countries have a financial year that runs from ~April to March?

Well personally I don't believe in such conspiracies.

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26 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I'm wondering whether covid19 has a big economic silver lining in clearing out the zombie companies....

Lot to be said in that.....many businesses like many households on the edge.... little backup or savings to see them through a even a couple of months... quite shocking really...tip of iceberg, what is lying beneath the surface?;)

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1 hour ago, 24gray24 said:

My impression is that businesses were hollowed out by landlords and rates and a host of other rent seekers in the good times, so have no chance of carrying on at less than full capacity now. 

Commercial rents must now be collapsing. 

So the landlords will be pursuing the bankrupt business owners for the difference in about 5 years ( on their personal guarantees). 

https://www.landlordzone.co.uk/news/retail-rents-could-drop-by-50-after-coronavirus/

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Daughter's friend works in a cocktail bar in London. She was so bored last night due to lack of customers, same again today, dead in there, she said.

Its going to be really hard to get people back in bars, eating out, flooding into shops, etc now, with so many having job/money worries, plus a change of habit over such a long period, even when the nervousness from covid has gone.

My neighbour who used to love clothes shopping told me she doesn't miss it at all now and has taken to enjoying walking outdoors so much now, she doesn't intend going back to clothes/shoes/handbag shopping like she used to.

I too have learnt to love the outdoors plants, birds etc so much more, and I can't even be bothered now with my usual necessity of having to apply make up every time I step outdoors, and it feels like freedom. ?

Plus son is happy with the way I have learnt to cut his hair, so more expense saved.

I wonder how widespread will the decrease in consumerism likely to be with the general public going forward?

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1 hour ago, moonriver said:

Daughter's friend works in a cocktail bar in London. She was so bored last night due to lack of customers, same again today, dead in there, she said.

Its going to be really hard to get people back in bars, eating out, flooding into shops, etc now, with so many having job/money worries, plus a change of habit over such a long period, even when the nervousness from covid has gone.

My neighbour who used to love clothes shopping told me she doesn't miss it at all now and has taken to enjoying walking outdoors so much now, she doesn't intend going back to clothes/shoes/handbag shopping like she used to.

I too have learnt to love the outdoors plants, birds etc so much more, and I can't even be bothered now with my usual necessity of having to apply make up every time I step outdoors, and it feels like freedom. ?

Plus son is happy with the way I have learnt to cut his hair, so more expense saved.

I wonder how widespread will the decrease in consumerism likely to be with the general public going forward?

Good post, i agree with many of your points, the tourists have also disappeared and they spend a lot in London

Edited by shlomo
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Debt fuelled consumer capitalism is a busted flush.

In over 2000 years we've made little progress. We still hold on to primitive superstitions. Today's 'stimulating economic growth' is yesterday's 'sacrifice that lamb for a bountiful harvest'. 

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4 hours ago, Now or never said:

Are all of those usually open on a Sunday?

Many would be. I've also walked past 2 pubs this evening. One shut but opening tomorrow. One open but no sign of patrons. I was planning to go in for a beer but I couldn't read the dodgy A4 signs on the doors, which presumably advised routes in and new rules. Very unwelcoming. 

For 3 months ive managed without regular coffee from Costa, occasional beer from pub... But have spent more time in parks. Things have changed I feel.

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A lot of the problem with the pubs now is that they are having to place barriers. You have to book to go in, give your personal details to go into some sort of an app, you can only pay by card in many, even using the loos isnt straightforward. When I go out for a drink, I like to leave my phone and  glasses at home. I cant see who on earth wants to put themselves through all this.

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50 minutes ago, simon49 said:

 When I go out for a drink, I like to leave my phone and  glasses at home. I cant see who on earth wants to put themselves through all this.

I relate to that when I go drinking I leave my iPhone at home and carry a £50 Chinese phone, and only have about £40 in cash with me.

if they made it difficult I would not really go out to the pub

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1 hour ago, Sausage said:

Many would be. I've also walked past 2 pubs this evening. One shut but opening tomorrow. One open but no sign of patrons. I was planning to go in for a beer but I couldn't read the dodgy A4 signs on the doors, which presumably advised routes in and new rules. Very unwelcoming. 

For 3 months ive managed without regular coffee from Costa, occasional beer from pub... But have spent more time in parks. Things have changed I feel.

I agree, things have changed.

 

I haven't ventured into a pub over the weekend or been to a high street since restrictions have been lifted. The bullshight rules you have to endure for getting the daily shop is just bearable, but to abide to the power crazy for a sociable drink - no thanks.

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8 hours ago, shlomo said:

It is also programming, 3 months of not going somewhere you come to the realisation it was not important, I went to the barbershop I was the only customer I was surprised as I thought it would have been packed, we have changed as a people 

wars and famines and experience change a people we are not the same I think we lost the work ethic 

I noticed that while hairdressers were packed barbers were quiet. 

As you say there is a programming effect. I have now been programmed to get my hair trimmed once a week by my wife she doesn't do it as well as a barber but, compared to my once a month trim, most of the time my hair looks better and it saves me the cost/hassle of visiting the barber. 

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4 hours ago, moonriver said:

Daughter's friend works in a cocktail bar in London. She was so bored last night due to lack of customers, same again today, dead in there, she said.

Its going to be really hard to get people back in bars, eating out, flooding into shops, etc now, with so many having job/money worries, plus a change of habit over such a long period, even when the nervousness from covid has gone.

My neighbour who used to love clothes shopping told me she doesn't miss it at all now and has taken to enjoying walking outdoors so much now, she doesn't intend going back to clothes/shoes/handbag shopping like she used to.

I too have learnt to love the outdoors plants, birds etc so much more, and I can't even be bothered now with my usual necessity of having to apply make up every time I step outdoors, and it feels like freedom. ?

Plus son is happy with the way I have learnt to cut his hair, so more expense saved.

I wonder how widespread will the decrease in consumerism likely to be with the general public going forward?

Things have changed no doubt but decreased I am not so sure, every house in our street seems to be having  multiple deliveries every day. 

 

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4 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Most people will refuse to spend money if they are going to lose their jobs themselves.  Its a vicious cycle.

Anyway, western consumerism died three decades ago, so it's amazing that the desperate fookwits have kept the show on the road this far.

2020 is where it ends.

If not the last 30, then certainly the last 10-12 years, the UK economy has been mainly running on inertia, denial, a relative lack of native innovation in material improvements, and diminishing returns in rewards on most fronts to virtually everyone born in the UK under the age of 40.

Edited by Big Orange
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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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