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I'd always felt that MMR had been a bit of a damp squib, but someone in one thread (I forget which) said it was having a definite impact.

Does anyone have stats to show MMR has reduced the size of mortgages, reduced salary multiples, increased rejection rates etc?

Edited by Sausage
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Well the stat that takes that into account best IMHO is mortgage costs as % of FTB take home pay.

Yes lots of noise in there, but ultimately takes into account salarys, multiples and mortgage costs.

In 2007 it was 51%, now its 30%.

 

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1 hour ago, captainb said:

Well the stat that takes that into account best IMHO is mortgage costs as % of FTB take home pay.

Yes lots of noise in there, but ultimately takes into account salarys, multiples and mortgage costs.

In 2007 it was 51%, now its 30%.

 

Isnt that just because IRs are so much lower? A £150k mortgage on 7% is 1k per month, but on 3% is £700 a month. That could easily be 50% and 30% of an average salary in '07 and '20.

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Just now, Sausage said:

Isnt that just because IRs are so much lower? A £150k mortgage on 7% is 1k per month, but on 3% is £700 a month. That could easily be 50% and 30% of an average salary in '07 and '20.

Thats in there as well. Although in terms of monthly repayments, as rates have crashed the capital part has taken up an ever increasing % of the repayment. 

The % of take home pay from FTB on a mortgage is a key stat though - gives an impression on whether people are overstretched going into an "event".

Aim of MMR was to stop that happening. 

Last crash we were at 51%, in 1989 pre the crash before it was more like 59%. This time its 30%.

Of course IF rates rise the situation changes but those expecting massive falls need those rate rises to come in to make it happen IMHO. 

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2 hours ago, Sausage said:

I'd always felt that MMR had been a bit of a damp squib, but someone in one thread (I forget which) said it was having a definite impact.

Probably spyguy. He invents stuff to suit his story. 

But then, maybe it is, maybe it isn't. You could always just check land registry for HPI since the introduction and draw your own conclusions.

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5 hours ago, Sausage said:

I'd always felt that MMR had been a bit of a damp squib, but someone in one thread (I forget which) said it was having a definite impact.

Does anyone have stats to show MMR has reduced the size of mortgages, reduced salary multiples, increased rejection rates etc?

cheers duggy. Heres a made up chart from the made up internet.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

Set it to 25year.

Mortgage sales are still on their **** esp. considering the UK pop has increased by 10m+ since 2000, 

Previously, 1995 was the '100 year nadir' for mortgage sales. Looks positively buoyant compared to today.

Theres been no huge bounce back, as bank loosen credit. No return as the economy recovers - of course the economy is just lurching forward, fuelled by QE ZIRP.

And even those figures, which are terrible, would be even worse, if you remove the ~300k HTB mortgages and the gormless late IO BTLers who are both probably regretting their decision.

 

 

 

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43 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

@spyguy

Can you point to the exact moment MMR was introduced on that graph?

I think its more complex/less obvious.

Proposed in 2009, introduced in 2014. Iirc banks were complying with MMR for a few years before.

I'm not reading much into the chart. 

However, it doesn't show the mortgage market returning anywhere near where it was.

Sure, most places haven't seen nominal prices fall much. But around me prices fell and are the same as 2004ish. In a few years time the numbers are going to show no change for 20 years.

Micawbers chart is eye brow raising. The UK market is stuck, and wont unstick til prices fall and wages go up. In London you'll need prices to halve n wages to double.

I'd guess must over 60s wont be alive to see their houses being sold.

My local large town Scarborough, is seeing wave after wave of private. I used to joke - a bit - that the local housing market is determined on how bad the flu season been.

 

 

 

 

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Just after my last post, my tablet popped up TSBs 'award winning fix n flex' mortgage.

So, I went to have a look.

Bear in mind TSB will be competing hard for customers.

'How much can I borrow?'

I put in 35k, which is well in the top 30% of earners.

500 debt repayment, typical for HPI car,CC n store cards.

That's a only a  'could'

What we could offer you

Based on your stated income and outgoings we could offer you:

£110,830

Now find out which TSB Mortgages you may be eligible for.

 

 

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7 hours ago, spyguy said:

Proposed in 2009, introduced in 2014. Iirc banks were complying with MMR for a few years before.

This is the answer I was expecting. You invent stuff to suit your story.

I won't bother with the rest of your stuff, you've had enough chances now. 

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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