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House Price Crash Forum

Nationwide Jun 2020 House Price Index


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10 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

???.

Hmmm, 2017-2020, come on, you can do much better than that.

Annual averages, don't count for much, that's actually what we want. International London investors, transferring their wealth to us.

Try the middle ground, Birmingham, Manchester ⬆️⬆️⬆️, much better ?.

You do actually talk in riddles.  The data is very relevant; all data at the moment is relevant as it helps me to ascertain how much house prices will fall.
After today’s economic findings, it has become clear that house prices will fall rapidly and consistently.  Especially in London, Manchester and Birmingham.

Do you not agree with this?

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32 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

New deal.

These commercial buildings, are gonna be converted into tiny flats.

An we will ram them full, of immigrants for cheap labour.

I've no doubt this was the plan. We kept hearing how there was a shortage of "skilled" curry chefs and we needed to allow them to come over. This might be a more difficult sell in the current climate.

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12 hours ago, Neitherland said:

Key point to remember: no forced sales = no crash.

Classic bullthink right here. The fundamental driver of residential property transactions is demographic turnover i.e. births, deaths and all the life events in between. For as long as there are transactions there will be price discovery and that process can discover prices going up, staying the same, or down down down. Just look at the poor economic prospects of the youngsters who are coming up to replace some of the comfortable oldies holding all those mortgage-free properties you describe. That gives a clue as to which direction the prices yet to be discovered will lie in.

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31 minutes ago, Deckard said:

30259430-8478163-image-a-31_159359105638

And this is the Wail

At this rate even the sheeple might start to tumble to what's coming... 

Ha ha, that blue line is like the old Roadrunner cartoons where he'd run off a cliff, and there's a split second for him to realise what's about to happen. Cue the slapstick sound effect as he begins to drop. 

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9 minutes ago, Orb said:

Ha ha, that blue line is like the old Roadrunner cartoons where he'd run off a cliff, and there's a split second for him to realise what's about to happen. Cue the slapstick sound effect as he begins to drop. 

wile-e-coyote-falling-off-cliff.jpg&f=1&

Popcorn at the ready :D

th?id=OIP.9YCkAs-iWqwhISznGdx1cAHaHa%26p

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38 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Just look at the poor economic prospects of the youngsters who are coming up to replace some of the comfortable oldies holding all those mortgage-free properties you describe. That gives a clue as to which direction the prices yet to be discovered will lie in.

Yes, and they know they’ve been shafted. I don’t think most people my age (GenX) have realised they have yet. I think they know something’s not right, but they haven’t joined the dots yet.

I feel like they’ve been nudged into accepting high house prices, nudged into mums having to go back to work to pay the mortgage, nudged into abandoning their very young kids at nursery all day, nudged into leasing cars and nudged into thinking that branded foodbanks are perfectly acceptable. They did everything they were taught to in order to succeed: Worked hard at school, got a degree, got a good job and saved their money. But instead of owning a 5-bed detached with a swimming pool and a Testarossa in middle-age; they live in a cramped, 3-bed mid terraced with a Nissan Qashqai and constant tiredness from having kids in their late 30s. One day they’ll realise they’ve been shafted and how, but it’ll be too late to do anything about it. 

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24 minutes ago, ForGreatLager... said:

Yes, and they know they’ve been shafted. I don’t think most people my age (GenX) have realised they have yet. I think they know something’s not right, but they haven’t joined the dots yet.

I feel like they’ve been nudged into accepting high house prices, nudged into mums having to go back to work to pay the mortgage, nudged into abandoning their very young kids at nursery all day, nudged into leasing cars and nudged into thinking that branded foodbanks are perfectly acceptable. They did everything they were taught to in order to succeed: Worked hard at school, got a degree, got a good job and saved their money. But instead of owning a 5-bed detached with a swimming pool and a Testarossa in middle-age; they live in a cramped, 3-bed mid terraced with a Nissan Qashqai and constant tiredness from having kids in their late 30s. One day they’ll realise they’ve been shafted and how, but it’ll be too late to do anything about it.  own a pot nooodle. 

FTFY

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26 minutes ago, evictee said:

Just finished importing the latest Land Registry data into houseprices.io. How many sales to you think were recorded for May this year? As a guide, May's figure at this time last year was 25391. The answer is... wait for it.... the answer is..... 41.

99.84% drop. Near enough total collapse.

Never mind the housing market, this is looking like the mother & father of economic shocks..

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29 minutes ago, evictee said:

Just finished importing the latest Land Registry data into houseprices.io. How many sales to you think were recorded for May this year? As a guide, May's figure at this time last year was 25391. The answer is... wait for it.... the answer is..... 41.

Sum 41 ?

In too deep ??

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4 hours ago, RomfordDon said:

Wow only 41 sales for the whole of the uk!!

Difficult to say where we are going next, as far as I can see anything coming on for sale in my area is actually higher priced than before lockdown.  That said some of the stuff seems unusual in terms of the number of properties coming on and the high quality.  I’m looking for a pattern and what I think is emerging is the smart money is trying to sell rentals ahead of any drop.  I think the real impact will only be seen later in the year when the ability or willingness of banks to lend becomes clearer.  Given the number of redundancies and businesses in trouble the banks may start to become nervous and we are seeing that in higher deposit requirements and reluctance to lend to ltds.  Sounds a lot like they are expecting a drop.  

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10 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

If house prices drop by 30-50%, most people will not pay their mortgages...

What's the difference, I can't pay vs I won't pay, same process... 

Think about it, this works in your favour.

As Play Bunny says "Falls beget Falls".

Repossessions. 

Be realistic please, the banks are exposed more than anyone.

Eh?

Why would people stop paying their mortgage is house prices fall?

People only stop paying their mortgages when their income dries up.

London/SE saw real falls of ~40%/nominal falls of 60% from 1988 to ~1995. Most people continued paying their mortgages.

Bank exposure, post MMR, is relative limited. The biggest exposure is the home owner.

Banks will bend over backward to stop repoing. But they have a tight timescale for non performing loans. They need them off te books ASAP.

 

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

Who knows, we might have 1 million immigrants from HK soon.

We are also likely to see immigration from India and Africa, cheap labour and wealth incoming. 

If immigration created wealth then Bradford and Luton - and now Leicester - must be the richest towns in the UK.

 

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9 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

???.

Hmmm, 2017-2020, come on, you can do much better than that.

Annual averages, don't count for much, that's actually what we want. International London investors, transferring their wealth to us.

Try the middle ground, Birmingham, Manchester ⬆️⬆️⬆️, much better ?.

International London investors???????

Most property is bought to live in. And its bought with debt.

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10 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

Hopfully, alot more than a few bags of rice.

Actually, I rather like the chinese, would love them here. Just fear for my fellow Brits, anybody in London, fancy relocating to Liverpool or Stoke?

I agree, the amount of wealth which comes with them, who knows.

How much to you think the average China is?

Or by Chinese, do you mean Cantonese?

Todays Cantonese person is screwed by both a Marxist state and capitalist system that hordes property.

Sadly Cantonese wealth is all built on the flow of money to and from a massive Marxist state.

 

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8 hours ago, ForGreatLager... said:

Yes, and they know they’ve been shafted. I don’t think most people my age (GenX) have realised they have yet. I think they know something’s not right, but they haven’t joined the dots yet.

I feel like they’ve been nudged into accepting high house prices, nudged into mums having to go back to work to pay the mortgage, nudged into abandoning their very young kids at nursery all day, nudged into leasing cars and nudged into thinking that branded foodbanks are perfectly acceptable. They did everything they were taught to in order to succeed: Worked hard at school, got a degree, got a good job and saved their money. But instead of owning a 5-bed detached with a swimming pool and a Testarossa in middle-age; they live in a cramped, 3-bed mid terraced with a Nissan Qashqai and constant tiredness from having kids in their late 30s. One day they’ll realise they’ve been shafted and how, but it’ll be too late to do anything about it. 

Stop describing my life. Only I can afford a 2 bed, and 12 year old kia c'eed. 

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17 hours ago, Warwick-Watcher said:

I reckon my commuting costs are not far off £10k a year, taking into account the car park, season ticket and sundry purchases morning and evening to make the commute more enjoyable. I can't imagine paying that to go to a cafe job.

If you live in zone 4 and work a 40 hour week at minimum wage in zone 1 you'll be paying £2k a year for a travel card and taking home £16k. That's 12.5% of take home gone without so much as buying a coffee.

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